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Polityka·Wybory Globalne

Farrer By-Election Winner

icon for Farrer By-Election Winner
Polityka·Wybory Globalne

Farrer By-Election Winner

David Farley 100.0%

Rebecca Scriven <1%

Raissa Butkowski <1%

Michelle Milthorpe <1%

Polymarket

$499,060 Wol.

David Farley 100.0%

Rebecca Scriven <1%

Raissa Butkowski <1%

Michelle Milthorpe <1%

Polymarket

$499,060 Wol.

icon for Rebecca Scriven

Rebecca Scriven

$265,702 Wol.

No

icon for Raissa Butkowski

Raissa Butkowski

$17,778 Wol.

No

icon for Michelle Milthorpe

Michelle Milthorpe

$84,703 Wol.

No

icon for Helen Dalton

Helen Dalton

$56,332 Wol.

No

icon for David Farley

David Farley

$74,546 Wol.

Yes

A by-election for the seat of Farrer in the Australian House of Representatives is expected to take place on May 9, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for the seat of Farrer in the Australian House of Representatives. If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Australian Government, specifically the Australian Electoral Commission (AEC) (https://www.aec.gov.au/).One Nation candidate David Farley has secured a commanding victory in the federal Farrer by-election held on May 9, 2026, marking the party's historic first win in a House of Representatives seat after former Liberal MP Sussan Ley's resignation following her leadership loss. Early counts show Farley's primary vote surging to around 40% with a two-candidate preferred margin of approximately 57% over independent Michelle Milthorpe, amid a 31-point crash in the Liberal primary for Raissa Butkowski to 12% and negligible support for Family First's Rebecca Scriven. Trader consensus at 100% for Farley reflects official projections and declarations from the Australian Electoral Commission, with Family First's Scriven, Liberal's Butkowski, and non-candidate Helen Dalton trailing at 0.1%. Scenarios challenging this include rare recount demands or postal vote shifts, though the wide margin makes resolution certain absent extraordinary procedural disputes.

A by-election for the seat of Farrer in the Australian House of Representatives is expected to take place on May 9, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for the seat of Farrer in the Australian House of Representatives.

If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Australian Government, specifically the Australian Electoral Commission (AEC) (https://www.aec.gov.au/).
Wolumen
$499,060
Data zakończenia
May 9, 2026
Rynek otwarty
Feb 17, 2026, 5:42 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
A by-election for the seat of Farrer in the Australian House of Representatives is expected to take place on May 9, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for the seat of Farrer in the Australian House of Representatives. If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Australian Government, specifically the Australian Electoral Commission (AEC) (https://www.aec.gov.au/).

Wynik zaproponowany: No

Brak sporu

Ostateczny wynik: No

A by-election for the seat of Farrer in the Australian House of Representatives is expected to take place on May 9, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for the seat of Farrer in the Australian House of Representatives. If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Australian Government, specifically the Australian Electoral Commission (AEC) (https://www.aec.gov.au/).One Nation candidate David Farley has secured a commanding victory in the federal Farrer by-election held on May 9, 2026, marking the party's historic first win in a House of Representatives seat after former Liberal MP Sussan Ley's resignation following her leadership loss. Early counts show Farley's primary vote surging to around 40% with a two-candidate preferred margin of approximately 57% over independent Michelle Milthorpe, amid a 31-point crash in the Liberal primary for Raissa Butkowski to 12% and negligible support for Family First's Rebecca Scriven. Trader consensus at 100% for Farley reflects official projections and declarations from the Australian Electoral Commission, with Family First's Scriven, Liberal's Butkowski, and non-candidate Helen Dalton trailing at 0.1%. Scenarios challenging this include rare recount demands or postal vote shifts, though the wide margin makes resolution certain absent extraordinary procedural disputes.

A by-election for the seat of Farrer in the Australian House of Representatives is expected to take place on May 9, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for the seat of Farrer in the Australian House of Representatives.

If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Australian Government, specifically the Australian Electoral Commission (AEC) (https://www.aec.gov.au/).
Wolumen
$499,060
Data zakończenia
May 9, 2026
Rynek otwarty
Feb 17, 2026, 5:42 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
A by-election for the seat of Farrer in the Australian House of Representatives is expected to take place on May 9, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for the seat of Farrer in the Australian House of Representatives. If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Australian Government, specifically the Australian Electoral Commission (AEC) (https://www.aec.gov.au/).

Wynik zaproponowany: No

Brak sporu

Ostateczny wynik: No

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Często zadawane pytania

"Farrer By-Election Winner" to rynek prognoz na Polymarket z 5 możliwymi wynikami, gdzie traderzy kupują i sprzedają udziały na podstawie tego, co ich zdaniem się wydarzy. Obecny wiodący wynik to "David Farley" z 100%, za nim "Rebecca Scriven" z 0%. Ceny odzwierciedlają zbiorowe prawdopodobieństwa w czasie rzeczywistym. Na przykład udział wyceniony na 100¢ implikuje, że rynek zbiorowo przypisuje 100% szansy na ten wynik. Te kursy zmieniają się ciągle, gdy traderzy reagują na nowe informacje. Udziały w poprawnym wyniku można wymienić na $1 za sztukę po rozstrzygnięciu rynku.

Na dzień dzisiejszy "Farrer By-Election Winner" wygenerował $499.1K łącznego wolumenu od uruchomienia rynku Feb 17, 2026. Ten poziom aktywności handlowej odzwierciedla silne zaangażowanie społeczności Polymarket i pomaga zapewnić, że bieżące kursy są informowane przez głęboką pulę uczestników rynku. Możesz śledzić ruchy cen na żywo i handlować na dowolny wynik bezpośrednio na tej stronie.

Aby handlować na "Farrer By-Election Winner", przeglądaj 5 dostępnych wyników na tej stronie. Każdy wynik wyświetla bieżącą cenę reprezentującą implikowane prawdopodobieństwo rynku. Aby zająć pozycję, wybierz wynik, który uważasz za najbardziej prawdopodobny, wybierz "Tak", aby handlować na jego korzyść, lub "Nie", aby handlować przeciw niemu, wpisz kwotę i kliknij "Handluj". Jeśli wybrany wynik okaże się poprawny, Twoje udziały "Tak" wypłacą $1 za sztukę. Jeśli jest niepoprawny, wypłacą $0. Możesz też sprzedać swoje udziały w dowolnym momencie przed rozstrzygnięciem.

Obecnym faworytem dla "Farrer By-Election Winner" jest "David Farley" z 100%, co oznacza, że rynek przypisuje 100% szansy na ten wynik. Następny najbliższy wynik to "Rebecca Scriven" z 0%. Te kursy aktualizują się w czasie rzeczywistym, gdy traderzy kupują i sprzedają udziały, odzwierciedlając najnowszy zbiorowy pogląd na to, co jest najbardziej prawdopodobne. Sprawdzaj regularnie lub dodaj tę stronę do zakładek, aby śledzić zmiany kursów.

Zasady rozstrzygania "Farrer By-Election Winner" określają dokładnie, co musi się wydarzyć, aby każdy wynik został ogłoszony zwycięzcą — w tym oficjalne źródła danych używane do ustalenia wyniku. Możesz przejrzeć pełne kryteria rozstrzygania w sekcji "Zasady" na tej stronie nad komentarzami. Zalecamy dokładne zapoznanie się z zasadami przed handlem, ponieważ określają one precyzyjne warunki, przypadki graniczne i źródła regulujące rozstrzyganie tego rynku.