Trader consensus in the Farrer by-election favors independent Michelle Milthorpe at 54.5% over One Nation's David Farley at 43.5%, reflecting expectations of favorable preference flows despite Farley's primary vote lead in March polls showing him ahead at 28.7% versus Milthorpe's 23.3%. Milthorpe, who polled 44% two-candidate preferred against the previous Liberal incumbent in 2025, benefits from endorsements by crossbenchers Bob Katter, David Pocock, and Helen Haines, plus funding from pro-climate interests. Farley's campaign faces headwinds from resurfaced past comments, a Family First preference snub over social media posts, and clashes like a contentious Facebook attack on Milthorpe. Liberal Raissa Butkowski trails at 5.1% amid Coalition infighting with Nationals, with a key debate set for April 30 potentially shifting dynamics ahead of the May 9 vote.