Recent upward revisions to euro-area inflation forecasts, driven primarily by rising energy prices amid Middle East tensions, have prompted expectations of one final ECB deposit-rate hike to 2.75% in December 2026. Professional forecasters and analysts now anticipate rates holding near that level through much of 2027, with core inflation projected around 2.5% and limited evidence of second-round effects so far. This backdrop supports trader consensus favoring no further change by the March 2027 meeting, while the sizable probability assigned to a 25-basis-point increase reflects ongoing data dependence and risks from persistent energy pressures. Financing conditions have already tightened, and the ECB’s meeting-by-meeting approach leaves room for adjustments if wage or price data shift materially before then.