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Wybory·Irlandia

Zwycięzca Dublin-Central By-Election

icon for Zwycięzca Dublin-Central By-Election
Wybory·Irlandia

Zwycięzca Dublin-Central By-Election

Daniel Ennis 68%

Janice Boylan 23.8%

Gerry Hutch 7.3%

Ray McAdam 1.7%

Polymarket

$1,084,703 Wol.

Daniel Ennis 68%

Janice Boylan 23.8%

Gerry Hutch 7.3%

Ray McAdam 1.7%

Polymarket

$1,084,703 Wol.

Daniel Ennis

$33,191 Wol.

68%

Janice Boylan

$17,861 Wol.

24%

Gerry Hutch

$507,467 Wol.

7%

Ray McAdam

$34,431 Wol.

2%

Malachy Steenson

$20,903 Wol.

1%

Janet Horner

$12,891 Wol.

1%

Gillian Sherratt

$182,733 Wol.

1%

Ian Noel Smyth

$13,501 Wol.

1%

Mary Fitzpatrick

$45,252 Wol.

<1%

Eoghan Ó Ceannabháin

$53,097 Wol.

<1%

Séamas McGrattan

$9,451 Wol.

<1%

John Stephens

$153,925 Wol.

<1%

A by-election for a seat from the Dublin Central constituency in the Dáil Éireann, the lower house of the Irish parliament, is expected to take place sometime in 2026to fill the vacancy left by the resignation of Paschal Donohoe. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for this Dublin-Central seat in the Irish Dáil Éireann. If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Irish government, specifically the Irish parliament or “Oireachtas” (https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/elections/).A recent Irish Times/TG4/Ipsos B&A opinion poll conducted May 7-12 shows Sinn Féin's Janice Boylan leading first preferences at 21% in the Dublin Central Dáil by-election, ahead of Social Democrats' Daniel Ennis at 18%, independent Gerry Hutch at 14%, and Fine Gael's Ray McAdam at 13%, with the contest among 14 candidates hinging on transfers under Ireland's single transferable vote system. Traders price Ennis as the clear frontrunner at 68% implied probability, reflecting his strong second-preference support (15%) and expected gains from left-leaning Greens, Labour, and People Before Profit voters, plus potential centre-right flows bypassing Sinn Féin amid government dissatisfaction. Boylan trails at 24% due to weaker transfers, while Hutch's 7% odds stem from localized inner-city appeal but poor transfer prospects tied to his criminal background. The May 22 vote looms as the key catalyst.

A by-election for a seat from the Dublin Central constituency in the Dáil Éireann, the lower house of the Irish parliament, is expected to take place sometime in 2026to fill the vacancy left by the resignation of Paschal Donohoe.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for this Dublin-Central seat in the Irish Dáil Éireann.

If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Irish government, specifically the Irish parliament or “Oireachtas” (https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/elections/).
Wolumen
$1,084,703
Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2026
Rynek otwarty
Feb 20, 2026, 12:39 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
A by-election for a seat from the Dublin Central constituency in the Dáil Éireann, the lower house of the Irish parliament, is expected to take place sometime in 2026to fill the vacancy left by the resignation of Paschal Donohoe. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for this Dublin-Central seat in the Irish Dáil Éireann. If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Irish government, specifically the Irish parliament or “Oireachtas” (https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/elections/).
A by-election for a seat from the Dublin Central constituency in the Dáil Éireann, the lower house of the Irish parliament, is expected to take place sometime in 2026to fill the vacancy left by the resignation of Paschal Donohoe. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for this Dublin-Central seat in the Irish Dáil Éireann. If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Irish government, specifically the Irish parliament or “Oireachtas” (https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/elections/).A recent Irish Times/TG4/Ipsos B&A opinion poll conducted May 7-12 shows Sinn Féin's Janice Boylan leading first preferences at 21% in the Dublin Central Dáil by-election, ahead of Social Democrats' Daniel Ennis at 18%, independent Gerry Hutch at 14%, and Fine Gael's Ray McAdam at 13%, with the contest among 14 candidates hinging on transfers under Ireland's single transferable vote system. Traders price Ennis as the clear frontrunner at 68% implied probability, reflecting his strong second-preference support (15%) and expected gains from left-leaning Greens, Labour, and People Before Profit voters, plus potential centre-right flows bypassing Sinn Féin amid government dissatisfaction. Boylan trails at 24% due to weaker transfers, while Hutch's 7% odds stem from localized inner-city appeal but poor transfer prospects tied to his criminal background. The May 22 vote looms as the key catalyst.

A by-election for a seat from the Dublin Central constituency in the Dáil Éireann, the lower house of the Irish parliament, is expected to take place sometime in 2026to fill the vacancy left by the resignation of Paschal Donohoe.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for this Dublin-Central seat in the Irish Dáil Éireann.

If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Irish government, specifically the Irish parliament or “Oireachtas” (https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/elections/).
Wolumen
$1,084,703
Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2026
Rynek otwarty
Feb 20, 2026, 12:39 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
A by-election for a seat from the Dublin Central constituency in the Dáil Éireann, the lower house of the Irish parliament, is expected to take place sometime in 2026to fill the vacancy left by the resignation of Paschal Donohoe. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for this Dublin-Central seat in the Irish Dáil Éireann. If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Irish government, specifically the Irish parliament or “Oireachtas” (https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/elections/).

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Często zadawane pytania

"Zwycięzca Dublin-Central By-Election" to rynek prognoz na Polymarket z 12 możliwymi wynikami, gdzie traderzy kupują i sprzedają udziały na podstawie tego, co ich zdaniem się wydarzy. Obecny wiodący wynik to "Daniel Ennis" z 68%, za nim "Janice Boylan" z 24%. Ceny odzwierciedlają zbiorowe prawdopodobieństwa w czasie rzeczywistym. Na przykład udział wyceniony na 68¢ implikuje, że rynek zbiorowo przypisuje 68% szansy na ten wynik. Te kursy zmieniają się ciągle, gdy traderzy reagują na nowe informacje. Udziały w poprawnym wyniku można wymienić na $1 za sztukę po rozstrzygnięciu rynku.

Na dzień dzisiejszy "Zwycięzca Dublin-Central By-Election" wygenerował $1.1 million łącznego wolumenu od uruchomienia rynku Feb 20, 2026. Ten poziom aktywności handlowej odzwierciedla silne zaangażowanie społeczności Polymarket i pomaga zapewnić, że bieżące kursy są informowane przez głęboką pulę uczestników rynku. Możesz śledzić ruchy cen na żywo i handlować na dowolny wynik bezpośrednio na tej stronie.

Aby handlować na "Zwycięzca Dublin-Central By-Election", przeglądaj 12 dostępnych wyników na tej stronie. Każdy wynik wyświetla bieżącą cenę reprezentującą implikowane prawdopodobieństwo rynku. Aby zająć pozycję, wybierz wynik, który uważasz za najbardziej prawdopodobny, wybierz "Tak", aby handlować na jego korzyść, lub "Nie", aby handlować przeciw niemu, wpisz kwotę i kliknij "Handluj". Jeśli wybrany wynik okaże się poprawny, Twoje udziały "Tak" wypłacą $1 za sztukę. Jeśli jest niepoprawny, wypłacą $0. Możesz też sprzedać swoje udziały w dowolnym momencie przed rozstrzygnięciem.

Obecnym faworytem dla "Zwycięzca Dublin-Central By-Election" jest "Daniel Ennis" z 68%, co oznacza, że rynek przypisuje 68% szansy na ten wynik. Następny najbliższy wynik to "Janice Boylan" z 24%. Te kursy aktualizują się w czasie rzeczywistym, gdy traderzy kupują i sprzedają udziały, odzwierciedlając najnowszy zbiorowy pogląd na to, co jest najbardziej prawdopodobne. Sprawdzaj regularnie lub dodaj tę stronę do zakładek, aby śledzić zmiany kursów.

Zasady rozstrzygania "Zwycięzca Dublin-Central By-Election" określają dokładnie, co musi się wydarzyć, aby każdy wynik został ogłoszony zwycięzcą — w tym oficjalne źródła danych używane do ustalenia wyniku. Możesz przejrzeć pełne kryteria rozstrzygania w sekcji "Zasady" na tej stronie nad komentarzami. Zalecamy dokładne zapoznanie się z zasadami przed handlem, ponieważ określają one precyzyjne warunki, przypadki graniczne i źródła regulujące rozstrzyganie tego rynku.