Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 60.5% implied probability for June WTI crude oil (CL) settling above $84, reflecting a geopolitical risk premium amid escalating US-Iran tensions near the Strait of Hormuz, where recent clashes on May 8 lifted futures from a session low of $93.82 to settle near $94.68. This bullish positioning offsets modest OPEC+ output quota hikes—188,000 barrels per day for June—coupled with mixed EIA data showing refinery inputs dipping slightly for the week ending May 1, while global demand forecasts weaken due to China's stagnant consumption. The $77–$84 bin at 21% captures potential softening from ample non-OPEC supply growth; watch Thursday's EIA report and late-May OPEC+ meeting for resolution catalysts ahead of summer driving season.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoWhat will Crude Oil (CL) settle at in June?
What will Crude Oil (CL) settle at in June?
>$84 61%
$77-$84 21%
$70-$77 7.1%
$63-$70 4.8%
$156,359 Wol.
$156,359 Wol.
<$42
2%
$42-$49
1%
$49-$56
1%
$56-$63
2%
$63-$70
5%
$70-$77
7%
$77-$84
21%
>$84
61%
>$84 61%
$77-$84 21%
$70-$77 7.1%
$63-$70 4.8%
$156,359 Wol.
$156,359 Wol.
<$42
2%
$42-$49
1%
$49-$56
1%
$56-$63
2%
$63-$70
5%
$70-$77
7%
$77-$84
21%
>$84
61%
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official settlement price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no settlement price is published for that session, the market will use the most recent published settlement for the Active Month during June.
For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example; if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration.
Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count.
Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract.
Only days during June on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored.
This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for the relevant trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures.
Rynek otwarty: Dec 26, 2025, 6:31 PM ET
Źródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/energy/crude-oil/light-sweet-crude.settlements.htmlResolver
0x2F5e3684c...If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official settlement price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no settlement price is published for that session, the market will use the most recent published settlement for the Active Month during June.
For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example; if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration.
Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count.
Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract.
Only days during June on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored.
This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for the relevant trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures.
Źródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/energy/crude-oil/light-sweet-crude.settlements.htmlResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 60.5% implied probability for June WTI crude oil (CL) settling above $84, reflecting a geopolitical risk premium amid escalating US-Iran tensions near the Strait of Hormuz, where recent clashes on May 8 lifted futures from a session low of $93.82 to settle near $94.68. This bullish positioning offsets modest OPEC+ output quota hikes—188,000 barrels per day for June—coupled with mixed EIA data showing refinery inputs dipping slightly for the week ending May 1, while global demand forecasts weaken due to China's stagnant consumption. The $77–$84 bin at 21% captures potential softening from ample non-OPEC supply growth; watch Thursday's EIA report and late-May OPEC+ meeting for resolution catalysts ahead of summer driving season.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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