Current trader consensus, reflected in the 77.5% implied probability for “No,” stems from the continued absence of any CDC Level 4 Travel Health Notice, which requires an extreme health risk with no effective precautions available. Official CDC monitoring through May 2026 shows only lower-level alerts, including a global dengue Level 1 notice and a Level 2 notice for Ebola in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, with no evidence of uncontrolled transmission or novel pathogens meeting the strict criteria. Routine surveillance data from the National Center for Emerging and Zoonotic Infectious Diseases continue to track seasonal and regional outbreaks without the rapid escalation that has historically prompted Level 4 designations. While new variants or unexpected zoonotic events could shift conditions before year-end, the current epidemiological picture and model consensus support the market’s assessment of limited near-term risk.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoCDC issues Level 4 warning by December 31?
CDC issues Level 4 warning by December 31?
$71,600 Wol.
$71,600 Wol.
Dec 31, 2026
$71,600 Wol.
$71,600 Wol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the CDC issues a Level 4 (“Avoid All Travel”) Travel Health Notice for any disease by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A Level 4 notice listed for any amount of time during this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the CDC’s official Travel Health Notices page (https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/travel/notices); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Current trader consensus, reflected in the 77.5% implied probability for “No,” stems from the continued absence of any CDC Level 4 Travel Health Notice, which requires an extreme health risk with no effective precautions available. Official CDC monitoring through May 2026 shows only lower-level alerts, including a global dengue Level 1 notice and a Level 2 notice for Ebola in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, with no evidence of uncontrolled transmission or novel pathogens meeting the strict criteria. Routine surveillance data from the National Center for Emerging and Zoonotic Infectious Diseases continue to track seasonal and regional outbreaks without the rapid escalation that has historically prompted Level 4 designations. While new variants or unexpected zoonotic events could shift conditions before year-end, the current epidemiological picture and model consensus support the market’s assessment of limited near-term risk.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the CDC issues a Level 4 (“Avoid All Travel”) Travel Health Notice for any disease by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A Level 4 notice listed for any amount of time during this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the CDC’s official Travel Health Notices page (https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/travel/notices); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
A Level 4 notice listed for any amount of time during this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the CDC’s official Travel Health Notices page (https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/travel/notices); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Rynek otwarty: Jan 19, 2026, 3:15 PM ET
Wolumen
$71,600Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jan 19, 2026, 3:15 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the CDC issues a Level 4 (“Avoid All Travel”) Travel Health Notice for any disease by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A Level 4 notice listed for any amount of time during this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the CDC’s official Travel Health Notices page (https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/travel/notices); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Current trader consensus, reflected in the 77.5% implied probability for “No,” stems from the continued absence of any CDC Level 4 Travel Health Notice, which requires an extreme health risk with no effective precautions available. Official CDC monitoring through May 2026 shows only lower-level alerts, including a global dengue Level 1 notice and a Level 2 notice for Ebola in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, with no evidence of uncontrolled transmission or novel pathogens meeting the strict criteria. Routine surveillance data from the National Center for Emerging and Zoonotic Infectious Diseases continue to track seasonal and regional outbreaks without the rapid escalation that has historically prompted Level 4 designations. While new variants or unexpected zoonotic events could shift conditions before year-end, the current epidemiological picture and model consensus support the market’s assessment of limited near-term risk.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the CDC issues a Level 4 (“Avoid All Travel”) Travel Health Notice for any disease by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A Level 4 notice listed for any amount of time during this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the CDC’s official Travel Health Notices page (https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/travel/notices); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
A Level 4 notice listed for any amount of time during this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the CDC’s official Travel Health Notices page (https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/travel/notices); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Wolumen
$71,600Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jan 19, 2026, 3:15 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Current trader consensus, reflected in the 77.5% implied probability for “No,” stems from the continued absence of any CDC Level 4 Travel Health Notice, which requires an extreme health risk with no effective precautions available. Official CDC monitoring through May 2026 shows only lower-level alerts, including a global dengue Level 1 notice and a Level 2 notice for Ebola in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, with no evidence of uncontrolled transmission or novel pathogens meeting the strict criteria. Routine surveillance data from the National Center for Emerging and Zoonotic Infectious Diseases continue to track seasonal and regional outbreaks without the rapid escalation that has historically prompted Level 4 designations. While new variants or unexpected zoonotic events could shift conditions before year-end, the current epidemiological picture and model consensus support the market’s assessment of limited near-term risk.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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