Omar Aziz (PSD) advanced to the October 25 runoff after leading the first round on October 4 with roughly 40.6% of valid votes, ahead of Professora Maria do Carmo (PL) at 24.5% and Roberto Cidade (União Brasil) at 21.9%. Recent PoderData polling from October 8–11 shows Aziz holding a double-digit lead in the head-to-head, at 52% to 42% overall and 56% to 44% among valid votes, driven by stronger support among women and interior voters. Aziz’s prior terms as governor and senator, plus his coalition backing, have reinforced trader views of his frontrunner status. Maria do Carmo’s narrower base, concentrated in Manaus and select municipalities, has kept her price lower. Eliminated first-round contenders register near zero as the market focuses on the two-candidate contest.