Name: Will Sora be the #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on...?
Start: 2025-10-01T15:16:33.660126Z
End: 2025-10-24T00:00:00Z

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This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Sora iOS app is the #1 app in the United States iPhone Apple App Store for the overall Top Charts under "Free Apps", on October 3, 2025, 12 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

To find the overall chart, click "Apps" at the bottom of the US iOS App Store app, scroll down to "Top Free Apps" and click "See All". In the "Top Charts" section under "Free Apps", you'll see the list that will be used as the resolution source to this market (https://apps.apple.com/us/charts/iphone).

The Sora app can be found here: https://apps.apple.com/us/app/sora-by-openai/id6744034028

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Sora iOS app is the #1 app in the United States iPhone Apple App Store for the overall Top Charts under "Free Apps", on October 24, 2025, 12 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

To find the overall chart, click "Apps" at the bottom of the US iOS App Store app, scroll down to "Top Free Apps" and click "See All". In the "Top Charts" section under "Free Apps", you'll see the list that will be used as the resolution source to this market (https://apps.apple.com/us/charts/iphone).

The Sora app can be found here: https://apps.apple.com/us/app/sora-by-openai/id6744034028

October 24

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Sora iOS app is the #1 app in the United States iPhone Apple App Store for the overall Top Charts under "Free Apps", on October 15, 2025, 12 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

To find the overall chart, click "Apps" at the bottom of the US iOS App Store app, scroll down to "Top Free Apps" and click "See All". In the "Top Charts" section under "Free Apps", you'll see the list that will be used as the resolution source to this market (https://apps.apple.com/us/charts/iphone).

The Sora app can be found here: https://apps.apple.com/us/app/sora-by-openai/id6744034028

October 15

October 3

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Sora iOS app is the #1 app in the United States iPhone Apple App Store for the overall Top Charts under "Free Apps", on October 20, 2025, 12 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

To find the overall chart, click "Apps" at the bottom of the US iOS App Store app, scroll down to "Top Free Apps" and click "See All". In the "Top Charts" section under "Free Apps", you'll see the list that will be used as the resolution source to this market (https://apps.apple.com/us/charts/iphone).

The Sora app can be found here: https://apps.apple.com/us/app/sora-by-openai/id6744034028

October 20

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Sora iOS app is the #1 app in the United States iPhone Apple App Store for the overall Top Charts under "Free Apps", on October 31, 2025, 12 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

To find the overall chart, click "Apps" at the bottom of the US iOS App Store app, scroll down to "Top Free Apps" and click "See All". In the "Top Charts" section under "Free Apps", you'll see the list that will be used as the resolution source to this market (https://apps.apple.com/us/charts/iphone).

The Sora app can be found here: https://apps.apple.com/us/app/sora-by-openai/id6744034028

October 31

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Sora iOS app is the #1 app in the United States iPhone Apple App Store for the overall Top Charts under "Free Apps", on November 15, 2025, 12 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

To find the overall chart, click "Apps" at the bottom of the US iOS App Store app, scroll down to "Top Free Apps" and click "See All". In the "Top Charts" section under "Free Apps", you'll see the list that will be used as the resolution source to this market (https://apps.apple.com/us/charts/iphone).

The Sora app can be found here: https://apps.apple.com/us/app/sora-by-openai/id6744034028

November 15

Will Sora be the #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on...?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena score on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) for any amount of time by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked will be used to resolve this market.

If a listed model ties for #1 Arena score, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes."

The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.

Zal xAI op 30 juni een #1 AI-model hebben?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.

In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Zal Apple in 2026 de iPhone 18 uitbrengen?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases a foldable iPhone by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.

A qualifying release of a foldable smartphone by Apple will count even if it is not explicitly branded an iPhone.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Zal Apple een opvouwbare iPhone uitbrengen vóór 2027?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple publicly announces and launches a new product line by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".

A "new product line" is defined as a category of products Apple has not previously sold, rather than an iteration or update of an existing product. Examples of a new product line would include an Apple-branded home robot or gaming console, while a new iPhone, Mac, iPad, Apple Watch, or AirPods models would not qualify.

The resolution source will be official information from Apple.

Zal Apple voor 2027 een nieuwe productlijn uitbrengen?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple releases a new Apple TV product by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A qualifying product must be named "Apple TV" and be recognized as a successor to the original Apple TV, similar to the relationship between iPhone 14 and iPhone 15. A new Apple TV product released without a number, under a designation other than Apple TV 2 will qualify if it retains the original functions of the Apple TV and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.

In order to be considered released, the product must be officially announced by Apple, or otherwise available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone, for example during a WWDC event, will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Zal Apple vóór 31 maart een nieuwe versie van de Apple TV uitbrengen?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any weekly bar in the Kaito “Mindshare over time (L12M)” chart reaches a new all-time high at any point between November 19 and 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. If no new all-time high occurs, the market will resolve to “No.”

The resolution source is the creator’s page on Kaito. The weekly bar chart can be viewed by clicking the creator’s name at: https://yaps.kaito.ai/ct-leaderboard

A weekly bar counts as long as its date range includes the target date. A weekly bar is considered finalized once a bar for the following week is published.

Only the weekly values shown in the L12M chart are used for resolution.

If the Kaito page is temporarily unavailable at resolution time, the market will remain open until it returns. If it becomes permanently unavailable, the market will resolve to “No.”

Proph3T mindshare op het hoogste punt ooit tegen 31 maart?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the standard edition of the AirTag 2 launches at $29.99 or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve based on the pre-tax launch price in USD of the standard edition of the AirTag 2 as listed on the official Apple Store website or Apple’s retail pricing in the United States on the first official day of its release.

If the price differs between configurations, this market will resolve according to the lower price of the version that includes the full standard AirTag 2 model with no additional features, accessories, or services.

A qualifying product must be named "AirTag" and be recognized as a successor to the original AirTag product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 14 and iPhone 15. A new AirTag product released without a number, under a designation other than AirTag 2 will qualify if it retains the original functions of the AirTag and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.

In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.

If the AirTag 2 is not released by June 30, 2026, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be the official Apple Store (online or retail pricing), however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Apple AirTags 2 bij de lancering geprijsd onder de $30 USD?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tim Cook ceases to be CEO of Apple for any length of time between November 20, 2025, and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

An announcement of Tim Cook's resignation/firing before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/firing goes into effect.

This market's primary resolution source will be official information from Apple and/or Tim Cook, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Tim Cook weg als CEO van Apple vóór 31 maart?

This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if the USDC marketcap is equal to or greater than 50% of USDT marketcap on any day by December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

This market will resolve based on CoinGecko's "historical data" section for each coin, currently available at https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/usd-coin/historical_data#panel and https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/tether/historical_data#panel respectively, specifically the daily "Market Cap" data.

The daily market cap data for any given date will be considered finalized once data for the following calendar day is published on CoinGecko’s “Historical Data” page for both USDC and USDT.

This market will resolve based on the specified CoinGecko chart, not according to other sources or spot markets.

Zal USDC op 31 december 2026 50% van de marktkapitalisatie van USDT bereiken?

This market will resolve according to the first individual who is officially announced as the next permanent successor to Tim Cook as CEO of Apple Inc. by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

An announcement of a successor will be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether the announced replacement actually becomes the next CEO of Apple.

Interim CEOs will not qualify.

If no permanent successor to Tim Cook as CEO of Apple Inc. is announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The resolution source will be public statements from Apple Inc.

Zal John Ternus de volgende CEO van Apple worden?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any song by the listed artist is the number 1 song in any official weekly Billboard Hot 100 songs chart released for a data collection reference period entirely between January 1 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Any song released with the listed artist as a primary artist will count, including songs released before 2026. If a song is released jointly by multiple artists credited equally as primary artists, it will count for all of them. Features, writing credits, production credits, or other forms of non-primary contributions to a song will not count. Artist attribution will be determined solely by the artists displayed by Billboard on the relevant chart.

Billboard updates its Hot 100 songs chart each Tuesday (with adjusted release schedules on some holiday weeks), reflecting data collected in the previous week (Friday-Thursday). Each Billboard chart is then titled “Week of (date of the upcoming Saturday)”. The first Billboard Hot 100 song chart relevant to this market will be the chart titled “Week of January 17, 2026” for a data collection reference period of January 2-8, 2026. The final Billboard Hot 100 song chart relevant to this market will be the Chart titled “Week of January 9, 2027” for a data collection reference period of December 25-31, 2026.

Updates or revisions made within this market’s timeframe to the #1-ranked song on previously published Billboard Hot 100 charts will be considered; however, such updates will not disqualify a previously published Billboard Hot 100 #1 song from counting. If a Billboard Hot 100 #1 song is revised after initial publication, both the originally published #1 song and the revised #1 song will count for this market. Updates or revisions made after the release of the final Billboard Hot 100 song chart relevant to this market will not be considered.

The resolution source for this market will be the weekly Billboard Hot 100 songs charts published each week at https://www.billboard.com/charts/hot-100/ and through other official Billboard channels.

Zal Mariah Carey in 2026 een nummer 1-hit hebben in de Billboard Hot 100?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple releases a new AirTag product by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A qualifying product must be named "AirTag" and be recognized as a successor to the original AirTag product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 14 and iPhone 15. A new AirTag product released without a number, under a designation other than AirTag 2 will qualify if it retains the original functions of the AirTag and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.

In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Zal Apple AirTag 2 uitbrengen voor 30 juni?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by the listed date ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.

If OpenAI is acquired by another company that is already public, this market will immediately resolve to "No."

The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.

Zal OpenAI voor 31 december 2026 naar de beurs gaan?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if OpenAI completes an initial public offering (IPO) valued at $1 trillion USD or higher at the time of the IPO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No.”

An “initial public offering (IPO)” refers to the first sale of OpenAI’s equity securities to the public through a regulated stock exchange.

OpenAI will be considered to have achieved a $1 trillion valuation if the market capitalization implied by the IPO offering price multiplied by the total number of outstanding shares equals or exceeds $1 trillion USD.

Announcements, filings, or planned IPOs that do not result in public trading by that time will not qualify. Private funding rounds, secondary share sales, or employee-share transactions will not be considered. A direct listing or merger via SPAC will qualify only if it results in OpenAI’s common shares becoming publicly traded for the first time on a major exchange.

If OpenAI’s IPO is priced before the resolution deadline but public trading has not yet commenced, the market may remain open for up to 30 calendar days to determine whether the IPO is completed.

If OpenAI is acquired, dissolved, or merged into another entity before an IPO occurs, this market will resolve to “No.” In the event of a restructuring, the market will resolve based on the entity legally recognized as OpenAI’s successor will 

The resolution source will be a consensus for credible reporting.

OpenAI $1t+ IPO vóór 2027?

is market will resolve to "Yes" if it is officially announced that Pinterest will be, has been, or is being acquired by or merged with OpenAI by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

An announcement by Pinterest will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether the announced acquisition/merger actually occurs.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Pinterest or OpenAi, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Zal OpenAI Pinterest overnemen in 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is officially announced that TikTok will be, has been, or is being acquired by or merged with the listed entity, by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

An announcement by TikTok will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether the announced acquisition/merger actually occurs.

If TikTok is part of an acquisition or merger involving the specified entity, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether it is the sole buyer or partner.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from TikTok or the listed entity, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be use


Zal Amazon TikTok overnemen?

This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if the USDT marketcap is equal to or greater than the value specified in the title on any day by December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

This market will resolve based on CoinGecko's "historical data" section for USDT, currently available at https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/tether/historical_data#panel respectively, specifically the daily "Market Cap" data.

The daily market cap data for any given date will be considered finalized once data for the following calendar day is published on CoinGecko’s “Historical Data” page.

This market will resolve based on the specified CoinGecko chart, not according to other sources or spot markets.

Zal de marktkapitalisatie van USDT de $200 miljard bereiken vóór 2027?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases a "MacBook" product with cellular connectivity by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A qualifying product must be named "MacBook". A product that would accomplish a similar function will not qualify, the name must actually be "MacBook".

In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Zal Apple vóór 30 juni een MacBook met mobiele connectiviteit uitbrengen?

This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET:

- Bitcoin hits an all-time high
- Ethereum hits an all-time high
- Solana hits an all-time high
- US national Bitcoin reserve

Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.

The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH_Crypto.pdf

Er gebeurt nooit iets: Crypto-editie

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2026, the number of coins launched in 2026 that appear in the top 100 by market capitalization on CoinGecko is greater than the number specified in the title. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No.”

The resolution source is CoinGecko’s Top 100 market cap rankings (https://www.coingecko.com/).

Stablecoins, liquid staking tokens (LSTs), liquidity pool tokens, and synthetic representations of other assets will not qualify.

Will Sora be the #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on...?

October 3
$26,602 Vol.
Yes

October 15
$167,158 Vol.
Yes

October 20
$90,255 Vol.
Yes

October 24
$173,608 Vol.
No

October 31
$137,675 Vol.
No

November 15
$97,612 Vol.
No

Marktcontext

Will Sora be the #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on...?

Regels

Will Sora be the #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on...?

Marktcontext

Will Sora be the #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on...?

Over

Will Sora be the #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on...?

October 3$26,602 Vol.Yescircle check

October 15$167,158 Vol.Yescircle check

October 20$90,255 Vol.Yescircle check

October 24$173,608 Vol.Nocircle xmark

October 31$137,675 Vol.Nocircle xmark

November 15$97,612 Vol.Nocircle xmark

Marktcontext

Will Sora be the #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on...?

Regels

Will Sora be the #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on...?

Marktcontext

Will Sora be the #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on...?

Over

October 3
$26,602 Vol.
Yes

October 15
$167,158 Vol.
Yes

October 20
$90,255 Vol.
Yes

October 24
$173,608 Vol.
No

October 31
$137,675 Vol.
No

November 15
$97,612 Vol.
No