Name: Will Donald Trump be President of the USA on...?
Start: 2022-01-12T21:00:18.512Z
End: 2024-07-04T12:00:00Z

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This is a group market on whether Donald J. Trump will be the President of the United States on the dates listed.

This is a market on if Donald Trump will be President of the United States on January 31, 2024, 12:00 PM ET. 

This market will resolve to “Yes“ if, on the resolution date, Donald Trump is the current President of the United States, officially substantiated by official US government sources, like the links provided as the resolution source. 

If, for any reason, Donald Trump is not the sitting President of the United States on that date/time, this market will resolve to “No". 

The resolution sources are: 1. https://www.loc.gov/rr/print/list/057_chron.html, 2. https://history.house.gov/Institution/Presidents-Coinciding/Presidents-Coinciding/ and 3. https://www.whitehouse.gov/. If any of these 3 sources list Donald Trump officially as the current sitting president on the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes".

January 31

This is a market on if Donald Trump will be President of the United States on May 31, 2023, 12:00 PM ET. 

This market will resolve to “Yes“ if, on the resolution date, Donald Trump is the current President of the United States, officially substantiated by official US government sources, like the links provided as the resolution source. 

If, for any reason, Donald Trump is not the sitting President of the United States on that date/time, this market will resolve to “No". 

The resolution sources are: 1. https://www.loc.gov/rr/print/list/057_chron.html, 2. https://history.house.gov/Institution/Presidents-Coinciding/Presidents-Coinciding/ and 3. https://www.whitehouse.gov/. If any of these 3 sources list Donald Trump officially as the current sitting president on the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes".

May 31, 2023

This is a market on if Donald Trump will be President of the United States on July 31, 2023, 12:00 PM ET.

This market will resolve to “Yes“ if, on the resolution date, Donald Trump is the current President of the United States, officially substantiated by official US government sources, like the links provided as the resolution source.

If, for any reason, Donald Trump is not the sitting President of the United States on that date/time, this market will resolve to “No".

The resolution sources are: 1. https://www.loc.gov/rr/print/list/057_chron.html, 2. https://history.house.gov/Institution/Presidents-Coinciding/Presidents-Coinciding/ and 3. https://www.whitehouse.gov/. If any of these 3 sources list Donald Trump officially as the current sitting president on the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes".

July 31, 2023

This is a market on if Donald Trump will be President of the United States on September 30, 2023, 12:00 PM ET. 

This market will resolve to “Yes“ if, on the resolution date, Donald Trump is the current President of the United States, officially substantiated by official US government sources, like the links provided as the resolution source. 

If, for any reason, Donald Trump is not the sitting President of the United States on that date/time, this market will resolve to “No". 

The resolution sources are: 1. https://www.loc.gov/rr/print/list/057_chron.html, 2. https://history.house.gov/Institution/Presidents-Coinciding/Presidents-Coinciding/ and 3. https://www.whitehouse.gov/. If any of these 3 sources list Donald Trump officially as the current sitting president on the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes".

September 30, 2023

This is a market on if Donald Trump will be President of the United States on April 30, 2024, 12:00 PM ET. 

This market will resolve to “Yes“ if, on the resolution date, Donald Trump is the current President of the United States, officially substantiated by official US government sources, like the links provided as the resolution source. 

If, for any reason, Donald Trump is not the sitting President of the United States on that date/time, this market will resolve to “No". 

The resolution sources are: 1. https://www.loc.gov/rr/print/list/057_chron.html, 2. https://history.house.gov/Institution/Presidents-Coinciding/Presidents-Coinciding/ and 3. https://www.whitehouse.gov/. If any of these 3 sources list Donald Trump officially as the current sitting president on the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes".

April 30

This is a market on if Donald Trump will be President of the United States on March 1, 2022, 11:59 PM ET. 

This market will resolve to “Yes“ if, on the resolution date, Donald Trump is the current President of the United States, officially substantiated by official US government sources, like the links provided as the resolution source. 

If, for any reason, Donald Trump is not the sitting President of the United States on that date, this market will resolve to “No". 

The resolution sources are: 1. https://www.loc.gov/rr/print/list/057_chron.html, 2. https://history.house.gov/Institution/Presidents-Coinciding/Presidents-Coinciding/ and 3. https://www.whitehouse.gov/. If any of these 3 sources list Donald Trump officially as the current sitting president on the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes".

March 1, 2022?

This is a market on if Donald Trump will be President of the United States on May 1, 2022, 11:59 PM ET. 

This market will resolve to “Yes“ if, on the resolution date, Donald Trump is the current President of the United States, officially substantiated by official US government sources, like the links provided as the resolution source. 

If, for any reason, Donald Trump is not the sitting President of the United States on that date, this market will resolve to “No". 

The resolution sources are: 1. https://www.loc.gov/rr/print/list/057_chron.html, 2. https://history.house.gov/Institution/Presidents-Coinciding/Presidents-Coinciding/ and 3. https://www.whitehouse.gov/. If any of these 3 sources list Donald Trump officially as the current sitting president on the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes".

May 1, 2022?

This is a market on if Donald Trump will be President of the United States on July 1, 2022, 11:59 PM ET. 

This market will resolve to “Yes“ if, on the resolution date, Donald Trump is the current President of the United States, officially substantiated by official US government sources, like the links provided as the resolution source. 

If, for any reason, Donald Trump is not the sitting President of the United States on that date, this market will resolve to “No". 

The resolution sources are: 1. https://www.loc.gov/rr/print/list/057_chron.html, 2. https://history.house.gov/Institution/Presidents-Coinciding/Presidents-Coinciding/ and 3. https://www.whitehouse.gov/. If any of these 3 sources list Donald Trump officially as the current sitting president on the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes".

July 1, 2022?

This is a market on if Donald Trump will be President of the United States on September 1, 2022, 11:59 PM ET. 

This market will resolve to “Yes“ if, on the resolution date, Donald Trump is the current President of the United States, officially substantiated by official US government sources, like the links provided as the resolution source. 

If, for any reason, Donald Trump is not the sitting President of the United States on that date, this market will resolve to “No". 

The resolution sources are: 1. https://www.loc.gov/rr/print/list/057_chron.html, 2. https://history.house.gov/Institution/Presidents-Coinciding/Presidents-Coinciding/ and 3. https://www.whitehouse.gov/. If any of these 3 sources list Donald Trump officially as the current sitting president on the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes".

September 1, 2022?

This is a market on if Donald Trump will be President of the United States on November 1, 2022, 11:59 PM ET. 

This market will resolve to “Yes“ if, on the resolution date, Donald Trump is the current President of the United States, officially substantiated by official US government sources, like the links provided as the resolution source. 

If, for any reason, Donald Trump is not the sitting President of the United States on that date, this market will resolve to “No". 

The resolution sources are: 1. https://www.loc.gov/rr/print/list/057_chron.html, 2. https://history.house.gov/Institution/Presidents-Coinciding/Presidents-Coinciding/ and 3. https://www.whitehouse.gov/. If any of these 3 sources list Donald Trump officially as the current sitting president on the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes".

November 1, 2022?

This is a market on if Donald Trump will be President of the United States on January 6, 2023, 11:59 PM ET. 

This market will resolve to “Yes“ if, on the resolution date, Donald Trump is the current President of the United States, officially substantiated by official US government sources, like the links provided as the resolution source. 

If, for any reason, Donald Trump is not the sitting President of the United States on that date, this market will resolve to “No". 

The resolution sources are: 1. https://www.loc.gov/rr/print/list/057_chron.html, 2. https://history.house.gov/Institution/Presidents-Coinciding/Presidents-Coinciding/ and 3. https://www.whitehouse.gov/. If any of these 3 sources list Donald Trump officially as the current sitting president on the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes".

January 6, 2023?

This is a market on if Donald Trump will be President of the United States on March 1, 2023, 11:59 PM ET. 

This market will resolve to “Yes“ if, on the resolution date, Donald Trump is the current President of the United States, officially substantiated by official US government sources, like the links provided as the resolution source. 

If, for any reason, Donald Trump is not the sitting President of the United States on that date, this market will resolve to “No". 

The resolution sources are: 1. https://www.loc.gov/rr/print/list/057_chron.html, 2. https://history.house.gov/Institution/Presidents-Coinciding/Presidents-Coinciding/ and 3. https://www.whitehouse.gov/. If any of these 3 sources list Donald Trump officially as the current sitting president on the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes".

March 1, 2023?

This is a market on if Donald Trump will be President of the United States on November 30, 2023, 12:00 PM ET. 

This market will resolve to “Yes“ if, on the resolution date, Donald Trump is the current President of the United States, officially substantiated by official US government sources, like the links provided as the resolution source. 

If, for any reason, Donald Trump is not the sitting President of the United States on that date/time, this market will resolve to “No". 

The resolution sources are: 1. https://www.loc.gov/rr/print/list/057_chron.html, 2. https://history.house.gov/Institution/Presidents-Coinciding/Presidents-Coinciding/ and 3. https://www.whitehouse.gov/. If any of these 3 sources list Donald Trump officially as the current sitting president on the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes".

November 30, 2023

This is a market on if Donald Trump will be President of the United States on July 4, 2024, 12:00 PM ET. 

This market will resolve to “Yes“ if, on the resolution date, Donald Trump is the current President of the United States, officially substantiated by official US government sources, like the links provided as the resolution source. 

If, for any reason, Donald Trump is not the sitting President of the United States on that date/time, this market will resolve to “No". 

The resolution sources are: 1. https://www.loc.gov/rr/print/list/057_chron.html, 2. https://history.house.gov/Institution/Presidents-Coinciding/Presidents-Coinciding/ and 3. https://www.whitehouse.gov/. If any of these 3 sources list Donald Trump officially as the current sitting president on the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes".

July 4

Will Donald Trump be President of the USA on...?

If U.S. President Donald Trump visits the listed state between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Trump physically entering the terrestrial territory of the listed state. Whether or not Trump enters the state’s airspace during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.

The primary resolution source for this information will be official information from the government of the United States of America, official information from Trump, or released by his verified social media accounts (e.g., https://twitter.com/POTUS); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Zal Donald Trump in 2026 Virginia bezoeken?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump publicly endorses, or announces that he will vote for, any candidate for the 2028 United States presidential election or the Republican primary for that election by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be official information from Donald Trump or one of his representatives, or a consensus of credible reporting of Trump's endorsement.

Zal Trump vóór 2027 een kandidaat voor president steunen?

If U.S. President Donald Trump visits China by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Trump physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of the listed country. Whether or not Trump enters the country's airspace during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.

The primary resolution source for this information will be official information from government of the United States of America, official information from Trump or released by his verified social media accounts (e.g. https://twitter.com/POTUS), however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Zal Trump China bezoeken voor 30 april?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump publicly endorses, or announces that he will vote for, JD Vance for the 2028 United States presidential election or the Republican primary for that election, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".

If Donald Trump announces that he will vote for another candidate or endorses another candidate for the 2028 United States presidential election or the Republican primary for that election, this market will immediately resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be official information from Donald Trump or one of his representatives, or a consensus of credible reporting of Trump's endorsement.

Zal Trump JD Vance vóór 2027 steunen als presidentskandidaat?

This market will resolve based on whether Donald Trump announces that he will vote for or endorse the listed candidate in the election named in the title.

If Donald Trump does not announce an endorsement by the day before the scheduled election at 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be official information from Donald Trump or one of his representatives, or a consensus of credible reporting of Donald Trump's endorsement.

Zal Trump Steve Hilton in CA-Gov steunen voor 2 november 2026 ET?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if President of the United States Donald Trump announces he has resigned or will resign the presidency by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

If it becomes impossible for Donald Trump to resign or to announce his resignation (e.g., due to his removal from office by other means, etc.), this market will immediately resolve to "No."

For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that Trump announce that he has resigned or will resign. Whether he actually resigns will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Zal Trump uiterlijk op 31 december 2026 aftreden?

This market will resolve to “Yes“ if the US House of Representatives by simple majority vote to approve or pass one or more articles of impeachment of President Donald Trump, between July 24, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“.

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will be used.

Wordt Trump tegen het einde van 2026 afgezet?

The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028.

This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.

Zal JD Vance de Amerikaanse presidentsverkiezingen van 2028 winnen?

An interview of Donald Trump by Katie Pavlich on "Katie Pavlich Tonight" is scheduled to air on January 20, 2026. You can read more about that here: https://x.com/NewsNation/status/2012890752905363662

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump says the listed term during this interview. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

If clips of old interviews or prerecorded videos are aired where Trump is speaking, those clips will count toward this market's resolution.

Any usage of the term regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the term will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count.

Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy").

If this interview is definitively cancelled by Donald Trump or NewsNation, or otherwise is not released by January 21, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". If the interview has not aired in its entirety by January 21, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on what has aired up to that point.

The resolution source will be video of the events. Only remarks which are broadcast or streamed live will count toward this market's resolution. Transcripts will not count.

Will Trump say "Greenland" during NewsNation interview?

The 2028 United States presidential election will be held on Tuesday, November 7, 2028.

This market will resolve to the political party whose candidate is elected the next President of the United States in the 2028 election.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same party. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same party by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.

Zal de Democraten de presidentsverkiezingen van 2028 in de VS winnen?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual officially announces that they are running for U.S. President in the 2028 United States presidential election by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement by the listed individual  will be sufficient to trigger a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they actually filed a nomination to run, or whether they actually file a nomination to run in the future.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements by the listed individual (ex: via speech, social media, etc.), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Zal Gavin Newsom vóór 2027 een presidentskandidaat aankondigen?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between November 17, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for whether the individual is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Zal Trump Joe Exotic "The Tiger King" gratie verlenen voor 2027?

If U.S. President Donald Trump visits the autonomous territory of Greenland by March 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Trump physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of Greenland. Whether or not Trump enters the country's airspace during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.

The primary resolution source for this information will be official information from government of the United States of America, official information from Trump or released by his verified social media accounts (e.g. https://twitter.com/POTUS), however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Zal Trump vóór 31 maart Groenland bezoeken?

The UFC 324: Gaethje vs. Pimblett event is scheduled for January 24, 2026.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump attends UFC 324. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If the event is canceled or postponed beyond January 26, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

Attending the event is defined as being in physical attendance during any part of the event.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Zal Trump aanwezig zijn bij UFC 324?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump publicly endorses or suggests María Corina Machado as Venezuelan state leader or president by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If Donald Trump announces that he would prefer or endorses another individual, this market will immediately resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be official information from Donald Trump or one of his representatives, or a consensus of credible reporting of Trump's endorsement.

Zal Trump María Corina Machado steunen als president van Venezuela in 2026?

This market will resolve according to the next date (ET) on which the Trump administration announces a new nominee for Chair of the Federal Reserve.

An announcement from Donald Trump or the Trump administration stating their intent to nominate a specific individual for Chair of the Federal Reserve will suffice to resolve this market, regardless of whether a formal nomination actually occurs. 

Qualifying announcements must explicitly present the relevant individual as the nominee or future nominee for Chair of the Federal Reserve. Announcements of acting or interim appointments, or announcements which merely reveal potential candidates, will not qualify. Media reports, speculation, or other unofficial information will not qualify. 

A formal presidential nomination of an individual to be Chair of the Federal Reserve, made on a listed date, will also resolve this market. Formal nominations are defined as the submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate.

If no qualifying announcement is made by January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No announcement by Jan 31”.

The resolution sources for this market will be official announcements from Donald Trump or the Trump administration and official information from the U.S. Senate.

Zal Donald Trump vóór februari 2026 geen nieuwe kandidaat voor voorzitter van de Federal Reserve aankondigen?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump meets with Reza Pahlavi by January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A meeting is defined as any encounter where both the listed individual and Trump are present and interact with each other in person.

An exchange of words, handshake, direct conversation, or other clear personal interaction between the named individuals will qualify as a meeting. Merely standing in proximity, making eye contact, or being present in the same room or event without direct interaction will not qualify.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Zal Trump Reza Pahlavi ontmoeten voor 31 januari?

Donald Trump is scheduled to deliver a special address during  the "How can we cooperate in a more contested world?" session of the WEF 2026 at Davos on Wednesday, January 21, 2026.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump says the listed term during his appearance at the specified event. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

Pluralization/possessive of the listed term will count toward the resolution of this market.

Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy").

If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once).

AI-generated audio or video will count toward this market's resolution.

This market is explicitly about the scheduled "Special Address by Donald J. Trump, President of the United States of America" (https://www.weforum.org/meetings/world-economic-forum-annual-meeting-2026/sessions/special-address-by-donald-j-trump-president-of-the-united-states-of-america-49a709be7a/). Speeches, events, or comments that occur outside of the named, scheduled event will not qualify toward this market's resolution. If the event contains a Q&A, it will count toward the resolution of this market.

If this event is definitively cancelled, or otherwise is not aired by January 22, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be video of the events. Only remarks which are broadcast or streamed live will count toward this market's resolution.

Will Trump say "NATO" during WEF Address on January 21?

On December 16, 2025, President Donald Trump issued a proclamation titled “Restricting and Limiting the Entry of Foreign Nationals to Protect the Security of the United States”, which updated and expanded partial and full suspensions of entry into the U.S. for nationals of various countries (see: https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/12/restricting-and-limiting-the-entry-of-foreign-nationals-to-protect-the-security-of-the-united-states/). 

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump issues any executive order, signs any bill into law, or if the Trump administration otherwise takes any formal action which is aimed at fully or partially suspending entry into the U.S. for nationals of any specific, additional country between market issuance and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A qualifying action must be aimed at restricting or banning entry into the United States for nationals of a particular country or countries. Blanket actions to restrict entry for individuals holding certain visa classes, or other generalized entry restrictions, which do not target a specific country or countries, will not count.

Additional country refers to any country not subject to a full or partial suspension of entry as of the December 16 proclamation.

Any qualifying government action taken within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of when the policy takes effect. However, announcements of future or planned bans which are not made official through government action will not qualify.

Any action meeting these criteria will count, even if its implementation is immediately halted or delayed by judicial or other actions.

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Zal Trump de toegang tot de VS voor meer landen opschorten tot en met 31 december 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump is interviewed by Tucker Carlson between November 17, 2025 and February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

An interview is defined as a scheduled, recorded conversation where Donald Trump answers questions posed by Tucker Carlson. Press conferences or media briefings held by the White House with Carlson in attendance will not count.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a credible consensus of reporting that Donald Trump has recorded an interview with Tucker Carlson before February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, even if that interview is not yet released.

The resolution source for this market will be publicly available video footage of the interview; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Zal Tucker Carlson Trump interviewen vóór 28 februari?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Trump administration announces a new nominee for Chair of the Federal Reserve by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement within this market’s timeframe from Donald Trump or the Trump administration stating their intent to nominate a specific individual for Chair of the Federal Reserve will suffice to resolve this market, regardless of whether a formal nomination actually occurs. 

Qualifying announcements must explicitly present the relevant individual as the nominee or future nominee for Chair of the Federal Reserve. Announcements of acting or interim appointments, or announcements which merely reveal potential candidates, will not qualify. Media reports, speculation, or other unofficial information will not qualify.

A formal presidential nomination of an individual to be Chair of the Federal Reserve, made before the listed date, 11:59 PM ET, will immediately resolve this market to “Yes”. Formal nominations are defined as the submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate.

The resolution sources for this market will be official announcements from Donald Trump or the Trump administration and official information from the U.S. Senate.

Zal Donald Trump vóór 30 juni 2026 een nieuwe kandidaat voor het voorzitterschap van de Federal Reserve aankondigen?

On August 15, 2025, U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin met in person at Joint Base Elmendorf-Richardson near Anchorage, Alaska, for a summit focused on potential peace terms in Ukraine. 

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Vladimir Putin meets with Donald Trump on a separate occasion from the August 15, 2025 meeting by the listed date (ET).  Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Encounters that are part of, or a continuation of, the August 15 meeting will not qualify, even if they occur on a different day (e.g. August 16).

A meeting is defined as any encounter where both Putin and Trump are present and interact with each other in person.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Zal Trump Poetin ontmoeten vóór 31 maart 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump meets with Delcy Rodríguez by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

An exchange of words, handshake, direct conversation, or other clear personal interaction between the named individuals will qualify as a meeting. Merely standing in proximity, making eye contact, or being present in the same room or event without direct interaction will not qualify.

A meeting is defined as any encounter where both listed individual and Trump are present and interact with each other in person.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.


Zal Trump vóór 31 maart Delcy Rodríguez ontmoeten?

Donald Trump is expected to deliver the 2026 State of the Union address in late January or early February. 

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump says the listed term during his appearance at the specified event. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

Pluralization/possessive of the listed term will count toward the resolution of this market.

Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy").

If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once).

AI-generated audio or video will not count toward this market's resolution.

This market is explicitly about Donald Trump's scheduled delivery of the 2026 State of the Union address. Speeches, events, or comments that occur outside of the named, scheduled event will not qualify toward this market's resolution. If the event contains a Q&A, it will count toward the resolution of this market.

If this event is definitively cancelled, or otherwise is not aired by February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be video of the events. Only remarks which are broadcast or streamed live will count toward this market's resolution.

Will Trump say "Israel" or "Gaza" during the 2026 State of the Union address?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump meets with Jerome Powell by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A meeting is defined as any encounter where both the listed individual and Trump are present and interact with each other in person.

An exchange of words, handshake, direct conversation, or other clear personal interaction between the named individuals will qualify as a meeting. Merely standing in proximity, making eye contact, or being present in the same room or event without direct interaction will not qualify.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Zal Trump vóór 31 januari 2026 met Jerome Powell afspreken?

The 2026 midterm elections for the US House of Representatives is scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. 

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Republicans hold fewer seats in the House of Representatives for any state that Trump won in the 2024 US presidential election as a result of the 2026 midterm elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". 

Initial seat counts will be based on the composition of the US House of Representatives as of November 2, 2026, 11:59PM ET.

This market's resolution will be solely based on the number of seats held by the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives for any state won by Trump in the 2024 Presidential election. The loss of particular district seats will not count towards a resolution for this market; only the total number of seats held by the Republican Party in a given state will be considered. (e.g. The loss of a particular district's seat by the Republican Party followed by the gain of another district's seat would not be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes".)

​​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.

For the purposes of this market, states won by Trump in the 2024 Presidential election include Alabama, Alaska, Arizona, Arkansas, Florida, Georgia, Idaho, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Michigan, Mississippi, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, Nevada, North Carolina, North Dakota, Ohio, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, West Virginia, Wisconsin, and Wyoming. This list is determined by the winner of the electoral votes for each state in the 2024 Presidential election. In states such as Maine and Nebraska, where electoral votes are allocated separately by congressional districts as well as to the statewide winner, only the electoral votes allocated to the statewide winner are considered.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Zullen Republikeinen een zetel verliezen in het Huis van Afgevaardigden in een staat die Trump in 2024 heeft gewonnen?

This market will resolve according to the next listed individual that it is announced will leave the Trump Cabinet, or otherwise ceases to be a member of administration.

If none of the listed individuals leave between December 5, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”.

An announcement of the listed individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name is alphabetically first.

For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
A listed individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn. 

The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Zal Stephen Miran de eerste zijn die het Trump-kabinet verlaat vóór 2027?

This market will resolve according to the next individual Donald Trump, as President of the United States, formally nominates to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. 

Formal nominations are defined as the submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate.

Acting or interim appointments will not count unless the individual is formally nominated to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Senate (see: https://www.senate.gov/legislative/nominations_new.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Zal Trump Kevin Warsh nomineren als de volgende voorzitter van de Federal Reserve?

This market will resolve according to the location of the next meeting between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin between September 30 and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

This market will resolve to "No meeting by June 30" if no qualifying meeting occurs during this market's timeframe.

A meeting is defined as any encounter where Putin and Trump are all present and interact with each other in person.

An exchange of words, handshake, direct conversation, or other clear personal interaction between the named individuals will qualify as a meeting. Merely standing in proximity, making eye contact, or being present in the same room or event without direct interaction will not qualify.

For this market, Gulf states are defined as the six members of the Gulf Cooperation Council (Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates).

The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Will Donald Trump be President of the USA on...?

March 1, 2022?
$6,252 Vol.
No

May 1, 2022?
$7,614 Vol.
No

July 1, 2022?
$181,228 Vol.
No

September 1, 2022?
$358,120 Vol.
No

November 1, 2022?
$243,541 Vol.
No

January 6, 2023?
$848,238 Vol.
No

March 1, 2023?
$17,122 Vol.
No

May 31, 2023
$768,347 Vol.
No

July 31, 2023
$352,646 Vol.
No

September 30, 2023
$1,164,871 Vol.
No

November 30, 2023
$110,641 Vol.
No

January 31
$116,795 Vol.
No

April 30
$134,093 Vol.
No

July 4
$123,498 Vol.
No

Marktcontext

Will Donald Trump be President of the USA on...?

Regels

Will Donald Trump be President of the USA on...?

Marktcontext

Will Donald Trump be President of the USA on...?

Over

Will Donald Trump be President of the USA on...?

March 1, 2022?$6,252 Vol.No

May 1, 2022?$7,614 Vol.No

July 1, 2022?$181,228 Vol.No

September 1, 2022?$358,120 Vol.No

November 1, 2022?$243,541 Vol.No

January 6, 2023?$848,238 Vol.No

March 1, 2023?$17,122 Vol.No

May 31, 2023$768,347 Vol.No

July 31, 2023$352,646 Vol.No

September 30, 2023$1,164,871 Vol.No

November 30, 2023$110,641 Vol.No

January 31$116,795 Vol.No

April 30$134,093 Vol.No

July 4$123,498 Vol.No

Marktcontext

Will Donald Trump be President of the USA on...?

Regels

Will Donald Trump be President of the USA on...?

Marktcontext

Will Donald Trump be President of the USA on...?

Over

March 1, 2022?
$6,252 Vol.
No

May 1, 2022?
$7,614 Vol.
No

July 1, 2022?
$181,228 Vol.
No

September 1, 2022?
$358,120 Vol.
No

November 1, 2022?
$243,541 Vol.
No

January 6, 2023?
$848,238 Vol.
No

March 1, 2023?
$17,122 Vol.
No

May 31, 2023
$768,347 Vol.
No

July 31, 2023
$352,646 Vol.
No

September 30, 2023
$1,164,871 Vol.
No

November 30, 2023
$110,641 Vol.
No

January 31
$116,795 Vol.
No

April 30
$134,093 Vol.
No

July 4
$123,498 Vol.
No