This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next reconciliation bill Donald Trump signs into law imposes a cap on the deductibility of gambling losses—such as limiting deductible gambling losses to 90% of actual losses—by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The bill must be explicitly passed using the budget reconciliation process, which allows for expedited consideration in the Senate and requires only a simple majority.

Legislation which includes specific exceptions (e.g. certain types of gambling activities or taxpayers are excluded from the cap) will still qualify, as long as the primary effect of the provision is to limit the deductibility of gambling losses to less than 100% of actual losses.

This market will resolve based on the first reconciliation bill signed into law by Donald Trump during the market’s timeframe that includes major federal tax policy changes.

If it becomes impossible for Trump to sign legislation (e.g. he resigns), this market will resolve to "No".

This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.