Name: Which Senators will vote to confirm Tulsi Gabbard?
Start: 2025-01-14T20:09:24.711904Z
End: 2025-12-31T12:00:00Z

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This is a market on predicting which Senators will vote to confirm Tulsi Gabbard.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Bernie Sanders votes to confirm Tulsi Gabbard as Director of National Intelligence by June 30, 2025, 11:59 PM. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". 

This market will resolve based on the first confirmation vote for Tulsi Gabbard as Director of National Intelligence. If Gabbard's nomination is withdrawn or if the Senate rejects her nomination this market will immediately resolve to “No”.

Announcements from Bernie Sanders that he will vote for Gabbard will not qualify. Only an affirmative vote will count.

The primary resolution source will be official information form the U.S. senate, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Bernie Sanders

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Joni Ernst votes to confirm Tulsi Gabbard in the first roll-call vote on confirmation as Director of National Intelligence. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.

If another individual is confirmed as Director of National Intelligence for President Donald Trump, this market will resolve to “No”.

If Tulsi Gabbard is appointed through a recess appointment, or is otherwise officially made the Director of National Intelligence without a Senate vote, this market will resolve to “No”.

If no vote occurs before December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No."

The resolution source for this market will be the official vote count published on the U.S. Senate website, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Joni Ernst

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Bill Cassidy votes to confirm Tulsi Gabbard in the first roll-call vote on confirmation as Director of National Intelligence. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.

If another individual is confirmed as Director of National Intelligence for President Donald Trump, this market will resolve to “No”.

If Tulsi Gabbard is appointed through a recess appointment, or is otherwise officially made the Director of National Intelligence without a Senate vote, this market will resolve to “No”.

If no vote occurs before December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No."

The resolution source for this market will be the official vote count published on the U.S. Senate website, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Bill Cassidy

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Cynthia Lummis votes to confirm Tulsi Gabbard in the first roll-call vote on confirmation as Director of National Intelligence. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.

If another individual is confirmed as Director of National Intelligence for President Donald Trump, this market will resolve to “No”.

If Tulsi Gabbard is appointed through a recess appointment, or is otherwise officially made the Director of National Intelligence without a Senate vote, this market will resolve to “No”.

If no vote occurs before December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No."

The resolution source for this market will be the official vote count published on the U.S. Senate website, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Cynthia Lummis

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Mitch McConnell votes to confirm Tulsi Gabbard in the first roll-call vote on confirmation as Director of National Intelligence. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.

If another individual is confirmed as Director of National Intelligence for President Donald Trump, this market will resolve to “No”.

If Tulsi Gabbard is appointed through a recess appointment, or is otherwise officially made the Director of National Intelligence without a Senate vote, this market will resolve to “No”.

If no vote occurs before December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No."

The resolution source for this market will be the official vote count published on the U.S. Senate website, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Mitch McConnell

This market will resolve to "Yes" if John Curtis votes to confirm Tulsi Gabbard in the first roll-call vote on confirmation as Director of National Intelligence. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.

If another individual is confirmed as Director of National Intelligence for President Donald Trump, this market will resolve to “No”.

If Tulsi Gabbard is appointed through a recess appointment, or is otherwise officially made the Director of National Intelligence without a Senate vote, this market will resolve to “No”.

If no vote occurs before December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No."

The resolution source for this market will be the official vote count published on the U.S. Senate website, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

John Curtis 

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Susan Collins votes to confirm Tulsi Gabbard in the first roll-call vote on confirmation as Director of National Intelligence. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.

If another individual is confirmed as Director of National Intelligence for President Donald Trump, this market will resolve to “No”.

If Tulsi Gabbard is appointed through a recess appointment, or is otherwise officially made the Director of National Intelligence without a Senate vote, this market will resolve to “No”.

If no vote occurs before December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No."

The resolution source for this market will be the official vote count published on the U.S. Senate website, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Susan Collins

This market will resolve to "Yes" if John Fetterman  votes to confirm Tulsi Gabbard in the first roll-call vote on confirmation as Director of National Intelligence. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.

If another individual is confirmed as Director of National Intelligence for President Donald Trump, this market will resolve to “No”.

If Tulsi Gabbard is appointed through a recess appointment, or is otherwise officially made the Director of National Intelligence without a Senate vote, this market will resolve to “No”.

If no vote occurs before December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No."

The resolution source for this market will be the official vote count published on the U.S. Senate website, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

John Fetterman 

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Lisa Murkowski votes to confirm Tulsi Gabbard in the first roll-call vote on confirmation as Director of National Intelligence. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.

If another individual is confirmed as Director of National Intelligence for President Donald Trump, this market will resolve to “No”.

If Tulsi Gabbard is appointed through a recess appointment, or is otherwise officially made the Director of National Intelligence without a Senate vote, this market will resolve to “No”.

If no vote occurs before December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No."

The resolution source for this market will be the official vote count published on the U.S. Senate website, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Lisa Murkowski 

Which Senators will vote to confirm Tulsi Gabbard?

The Santa Cruz de la Sierra mayoral election is scheduled to take place in Bolivia on March 22, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.

If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Bolivian electoral authority, the Tribunal Supremo Electoral (TSE) (https://www.oep.org.bo).

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Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Slovenia on March 22, 2026.

This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially elected by the National Assembly (Državni zbor) and sworn in as Prime Minister of Slovenia following the next parliamentary election.

To count for resolution, the individual must be formally sworn in. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market.

If no such Prime Minister is sworn in by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Slovenia; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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The La Paz mayoral election is scheduled to take place in Bolivia on March 22, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.

If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Bolivian electoral authority, the Tribunal Supremo Electoral (TSE) (https://www.oep.org.bo).

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This market will resolve to "Yes" if Sam Altman serves any time in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Which Senators will vote to confirm Tulsi Gabbard?

Mitch McConnell
$785,998 Vol.
No

Bernie Sanders
$2,218,317 Vol.
No

John Curtis
$214,120 Vol.
Yes

John Fetterman
$526,660 Vol.
No

Susan Collins
$357,046 Vol.
Yes

Lisa Murkowski
$261,271 Vol.
Yes

Bill Cassidy
$167,051 Vol.
Yes

Cynthia Lummis
$199,372 Vol.
Yes

Joni Ernst
$192,029 Vol.
Yes

Marktcontext

Which Senators will vote to confirm Tulsi Gabbard?

Regels

Which Senators will vote to confirm Tulsi Gabbard?

Marktcontext

Which Senators will vote to confirm Tulsi Gabbard?

Over

Which Senators will vote to confirm Tulsi Gabbard?

Mitch McConnell$785,998 Vol.No

Bernie Sanders$2,218,317 Vol.No

John Curtis $214,120 Vol.Yes

John Fetterman $526,660 Vol.No

Susan Collins$357,046 Vol.Yes

Lisa Murkowski $261,271 Vol.Yes

Bill Cassidy$167,051 Vol.Yes

Cynthia Lummis$199,372 Vol.Yes

Joni Ernst$192,029 Vol.Yes

Marktcontext

Which Senators will vote to confirm Tulsi Gabbard?

Regels

Which Senators will vote to confirm Tulsi Gabbard?

Marktcontext

Which Senators will vote to confirm Tulsi Gabbard?

Over

Mitch McConnell
$785,998 Vol.
No

Bernie Sanders
$2,218,317 Vol.
No

John Curtis
$214,120 Vol.
Yes

John Fetterman
$526,660 Vol.
No

Susan Collins
$357,046 Vol.
Yes

Lisa Murkowski
$261,271 Vol.
Yes

Bill Cassidy
$167,051 Vol.
Yes

Cynthia Lummis
$199,372 Vol.
Yes

Joni Ernst
$192,029 Vol.
Yes