Name: What will Biden say during State of the Union?
Start: 2024-03-06T19:21:04.447Z
End: 2024-03-07T00:00:00Z

Use the internal polymarket geolocation service.

poly_geo

Improved notification preferences and types.

notifications_v2

funkit_deposit

funkit_withdraw

authenticated_book_ws

Improved in-game view for sports markets.

mobile_sports_overlay_v2

async_order_submission

Enable updates from the sports websocket.

sports_websocket

Show/hide language selector in navigation

language_selector

Auto-detect and redirect based on browser language

auto_locale_detection

Note: Be aware that State of the Union prepared remarks are oftentimes released before the speech starts.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Biden says "Trump" or "trump" during his State of the Union address, scheduled to take place on March 7, 2024. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No."

This market's primary resolution source is live video of the SOTU available here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nFVUPAEF-sw. Only in the event of ambiguity may the official transcript and other credible sources be considered.

Pluralization/possessive of the words will count toward the resolution of this market.

Any mention of the listed word, regardless of the context of its usage, will count towards the resolution of this market. E.g. if Biden says "I have a trump card up my sleeve" this market will resolve to "Yes."

If the State of the Union does not take place by March 8, 2024 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". 

Trump

Note: Be aware that State of the Union prepared remarks are oftentimes released before the speech starts.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Biden says "border" three or more times during his State of the Union address, scheduled to take place on March 7, 2024. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No."

This market's primary resolution source is live video of the SOTU available here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nFVUPAEF-sw. Only in the event of ambiguity may the official transcript and other credible sources be considered.

Pluralization/possessive of the word will count toward the resolution of this market.

Any mention of the listed word, regardless of the context of its usage, will count towards the resolution of this market. 

If the State of the Union does not take place by March 8, 2024 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". 

Border 3 or more times

Note: Be aware that State of the Union prepared remarks are oftentimes released before the speech starts.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Biden says "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during his State of the Union address, scheduled to take place on March 7, 2024. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No."

This market's primary resolution source is live video of the SOTU available here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nFVUPAEF-sw. Only in the event of ambiguity may the official transcript and other credible sources be considered.

Pluralization/possessive of the words will count toward the resolution of this market.

Any mention of the listed words, regardless of the context of their usage, will count towards the resolution of this market. 

If the State of the Union does not take place by March 8, 2024 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". 

AI/Artificial Intelligence

Note: Be aware that State of the Union prepared remarks are oftentimes released before the speech starts.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Biden says "fentanyl" during his State of the Union address, scheduled to take place on March 7, 2024. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No."

This market's primary resolution source is live video of the SOTU available here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nFVUPAEF-sw. Only in the event of ambiguity may the official transcript and other credible sources be considered.

Pluralization/possessive of the word will count toward the resolution of this market.

Any mention of the listed word, regardless of the context of its usage, will count towards the resolution of this market. 

If the State of the Union does not take place by March 8, 2024 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". 

Fentanyl

Note: Be aware that State of the Union prepared remarks are oftentimes released before the speech starts.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Biden says "Ukraine" or "Ukranian" three or more times during his State of the Union address, scheduled to take place on March 7, 2024. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No."

This market's primary resolution source is live video of the SOTU available here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nFVUPAEF-sw. Only in the event of ambiguity may the official transcript and other credible sources be considered.

Pluralization/possessive of the word will count toward the resolution of this market.

Any mention of the listed word, regardless of the context of its usage, will count towards the resolution of this market. 

If the State of the Union does not take place by March 8, 2024 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". 

Ukraine/Ukranian 3 or more times

Note: Be aware that State of the Union prepared remarks are oftentimes released before the speech starts.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Biden says "Navalny" during his State of the Union address, scheduled to take place on March 7, 2024. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No."

This market's primary resolution source is live video of the SOTU available here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nFVUPAEF-sw. Only in the event of ambiguity may the official transcript and other credible sources be considered.

Pluralization/possessive of the word will count toward the resolution of this market.

Any mention of the listed word, regardless of the context of its usage, will count towards the resolution of this market.

If the State of the Union does not take place by March 8, 2024 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". 

Navalny

Note: Be aware that State of the Union prepared remarks are oftentimes released before the speech starts.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Biden says "Putin" during his State of the Union address, scheduled to take place on March 7, 2024. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No."

This market's primary resolution source is live video of the SOTU available here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nFVUPAEF-sw. Only in the event of ambiguity may the official transcript and other credible sources be considered.

Pluralization/possessive of the word will count toward the resolution of this market.

Any mention of the listed word, regardless of the context of its usage, will count towards the resolution of this market. If Biden just says "Vladimir" it will not count for this market.

If the State of the Union does not take place by March 8, 2024 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". 

Putin

Note: Be aware that State of the Union prepared remarks are oftentimes released before the speech starts.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Biden says "China" or "Chinese" three or more times during his State of the Union address, scheduled to take place on March 7, 2024. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No."

This market's primary resolution source is live video of the SOTU available here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nFVUPAEF-sw. Only in the event of ambiguity may the official transcript and other credible sources be considered.

Pluralization/possessive of the word will count toward the resolution of this market.

Any mention of the listed word, regardless of the context of its usage, will count towards the resolution of this market. 

If the State of the Union does not take place by March 8, 2024 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". 

 China/Chinese 3 or more times

Update: Hyphenated compound words will count - non-hyphenated compound words will not count. For example, “Chinese-made” will count as saying “Chinese”, but “moonshot” will not count as saying “moon”. If it is unclear whether Biden said a compound/hyphenated word, the transcript will be used.

Note: Be aware that State of the Union prepared remarks are oftentimes released before the speech starts.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Biden says "Moon" during his State of the Union address, scheduled to take place on March 7, 2024. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No."

This market's primary resolution source is live video of the SOTU available here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nFVUPAEF-sw. Only in the event of ambiguity may the official transcript and other credible sources be considered.

Pluralization/possessive of the word will count toward the resolution of this market.

Any mention of the listed word, regardless of the context of its usage, will count towards the resolution of this market. 

If the State of the Union does not take place by March 8, 2024 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". 

Moon

Note: Be aware that State of the Union prepared remarks are oftentimes released before the speech starts.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Biden says "Hunter" or "hunter" during his State of the Union address, scheduled to take place on March 7, 2024. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No."

This market's primary resolution source is live video of the SOTU available here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nFVUPAEF-sw. Only in the event of ambiguity may the official transcript and other credible sources be considered.

Pluralization/possessive of the word will count toward the resolution of this market.

Any mention of the listed word, regardless of the context of its usage, will count towards the resolution of this market. 

If the State of the Union does not take place by March 8, 2024 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". 

Hunter

Note: Be aware that State of the Union prepared remarks are oftentimes released before the speech starts.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Biden says "Bitcoin" during his State of the Union address, scheduled to take place on March 7, 2024. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No."

This market's primary resolution source is live video of the SOTU available here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nFVUPAEF-sw. Only in the event of ambiguity may the official transcript and other credible sources be considered.

Pluralization/possessive of the word will count toward the resolution of this market.

Any mention of the listed word, regardless of the context of its usage, will count towards the resolution of this market. 

If the State of the Union does not take place by March 8, 2024 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". 

Bitcoin

Note: Be aware that State of the Union prepared remarks are oftentimes released before the speech starts.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Biden says "folks" four or more times during his State of the Union address, scheduled to take place on March 7, 2024. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No."

This market's resolution source is live video of the SOTU available here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nFVUPAEF-sw. In case of ambiguity, the official transcript and other credible sources may also be considered.

Any mention of the listed word, regardless of the context of its usage, will count towards the resolution of this market. 

If the State of the Union does not take place by March 8, 2024 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". 

Folks 4 or more times

Note: Be aware that State of the Union prepared remarks are oftentimes released before the speech starts.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Biden says "Ceasefire" during his State of the Union address, scheduled to take place on March 7, 2024. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No."

This market's resolution source is live video of the SOTU available here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nFVUPAEF-sw. In case of ambiguity, the official transcript and other credible sources may also be considered.

Pluralization/possessive of the word will count toward the resolution of this market.

Any mention of the listed word, regardless of the context of its usage, will count towards the resolution of this market. 

If the State of the Union does not take place by March 8, 2024 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". 

Ceasefire

What will Biden say during State of the Union?

Donald Trump is expected to deliver the 2026 State of the Union address in late January or early February. 

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump says the listed term during his appearance at the specified event. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

Pluralization/possessive of the listed term will count toward the resolution of this market.

Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy").

If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once).

AI-generated audio or video will not count toward this market's resolution.

This market is explicitly about Donald Trump's scheduled delivery of the 2026 State of the Union address. Speeches, events, or comments that occur outside of the named, scheduled event will not qualify toward this market's resolution. If the event contains a Q&A, it will count toward the resolution of this market.

If this event is definitively cancelled, or otherwise is not aired by February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be video of the events. Only remarks which are broadcast or streamed live will count toward this market's resolution.

Will Trump say "Israel" or "Gaza" during the 2026 State of the Union address?

Donald Trump is scheduled to deliver a special address during  the "How can we cooperate in a more contested world?" session of the WEF 2026 at Davos on Wednesday, January 21, 2026.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump says the listed term during his appearance at the specified event. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

Pluralization/possessive of the listed term will count toward the resolution of this market.

Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy").

If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once).

AI-generated audio or video will count toward this market's resolution.

This market is explicitly about the scheduled "Special Address by Donald J. Trump, President of the United States of America" (https://www.weforum.org/meetings/world-economic-forum-annual-meeting-2026/sessions/special-address-by-donald-j-trump-president-of-the-united-states-of-america-49a709be7a/). Speeches, events, or comments that occur outside of the named, scheduled event will not qualify toward this market's resolution. If the event contains a Q&A, it will count toward the resolution of this market.

If this event is definitively cancelled, or otherwise is not aired by January 22, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be video of the events. Only remarks which are broadcast or streamed live will count toward this market's resolution.

Will Trump say "NATO" during WEF Address on January 21?

Jerome Powell is currently scheduled to give an FOMC Introductory Statement and press conference on January 28, 2026, at 2:30 PM ET. This market pertains to his Introductory Statement as well as the following Q&A session.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Powell says the listed term during the FOMC Press Conference. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Any usage of the word regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the word will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count.

Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy").

If no such statement happens by January 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be video and transcripts of the FOMC Press conference.

Will Powell say "Good afternoon" during January press conference?

Melania Trump is scheduled to deliver an address at "Zoom Ahead: AI for Tomorrow's Leaders" on January 16, 2026, 12PM ET (see https://x.com/melaniajtrump/status/2011809351917351037?s=46).

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Melania Trump says the listed term during her appearance at the specified event. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

Pluralization/possessive of the listed term will count toward the resolution of this market.

Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy").

If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once).

AI-generated audio or video will count toward this market's resolution.

This market is explicitly about the scheduled event titled "Zoom Ahead: AI for Tomorrow's Leaders" on January 16, 2026, 12PM ET. Speeches, events, or comments that occur outside of the named, scheduled event will not qualify toward this market's resolution. If the event contains a Q&A, it will count toward the resolution of this market.

If this event is definitively cancelled, or otherwise is not aired by January 16, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be video of the events. Only remarks which are broadcast or streamed live will count toward this market's resolution.

Will Melania say "Career" during AI talk on Friday?

An interview of Donald Trump by Katie Pavlich on "Katie Pavlich Tonight" is scheduled to air on January 20, 2026. You can read more about that here: https://x.com/NewsNation/status/2012890752905363662

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump says the listed term during this interview. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

If clips of old interviews or prerecorded videos are aired where Trump is speaking, those clips will count toward this market's resolution.

Any usage of the term regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the term will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count.

Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy").

If this interview is definitively cancelled by Donald Trump or NewsNation, or otherwise is not released by January 21, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". If the interview has not aired in its entirety by January 21, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on what has aired up to that point.

The resolution source will be video of the events. Only remarks which are broadcast or streamed live will count toward this market's resolution. Transcripts will not count.

Will Trump say "Greenland" during NewsNation interview?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump mentions the listed term between January 19, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and January 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Pluralization/possessive of the word will count toward the resolution of this market.

Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy").

If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once).

A ‘mention’ will include any verbal mention which is recorded (audio or video) and publicly accessible.

Written usages of terms (e.g. Truth Social posts, written statements, etc.) will not count toward this market's resolution.

AI-generated audio or video will not count toward this market's resolution.

Videos posted on his social media which were filmed outside this market's time frame will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.

Will Trump say "MAGA" or "Make America Great Again" this week? (January 25)

This market will resolve based on the next earnings announcement of United Airlines currently scheduled to take place on January 21, 2026 at 10:30 AM EST.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed term is mentioned by anyone during this event. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

Any usage of the term, regardless of context, will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the term will count toward the resolution of this market; however, other forms will NOT count.

Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy").

If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once).

A Q&A event will count toward the resolution of this market.

If this event is definitely cancelled, or otherwise is not aired by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be audio of the event.

Will United Airlines say "On-Time" or "On Time" during earnings call?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump mentions the listed term between January 2, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Pluralization/possessive of the word will count toward the resolution of this market.

Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy").

If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once).

AI-generated audio or video will not count towards the resolution of this market.

A ‘mention’ will include any verbal mention which is recorded (audio or video) and publicly accessible.

Written usages of terms (e.g. Truth Social posts, written statements, etc.) will not count toward this market's resolution.

Videos posted on his social media which were filmed outside this market's time frame will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.

Will Trump say "Trump Derangement Syndrome" in January?

If U.S. President Donald Trump visits the listed state between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Trump physically entering the terrestrial territory of the listed state. Whether or not Trump enters the state’s airspace during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.

The primary resolution source for this information will be official information from the government of the United States of America, official information from Trump, or released by his verified social media accounts (e.g., https://twitter.com/POTUS); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Zal Donald Trump in 2026 Virginia bezoeken?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Chuck Schumer remains the Minority Leader of the United States Senate without interruption from November 14, 2025 through March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Blijft Schumer de Minderheidsleider tot en met 31 maart?

Donald Trump is scheduled to deliver a special address during the "How can we cooperate in a more contested world?" session of the WEF 2026 at Davos on Wednesday, January 21, 2026.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if anyone audibly farts during the mentioned event in a way that is clearly captured on event livestreams or official recordings. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

Farts that occur outside of this scheduled event will not qualify toward this market's resolution. If the event contains a Q&A, it will count toward the resolution of this market.

The resolution source will be official event livestreams and recordings.

Zal iemand hoorbaar een scheet laten tijdens Trumps WEF-toespraak in 2026?

This market will resolve based on the next earnings announcement of Johnson & Johnson currently scheduled to take place on January 21, 2026 at 8:30 AM EST.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed term is mentioned by anyone during this event. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

Any usage of the term, regardless of context, will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the term will count toward the resolution of this market; however, other forms will NOT count.

Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy").

If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once).

A Q&A event will count toward the resolution of this market.

If this event is definitely cancelled, or otherwise is not aired by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be audio of the event.

Will Johnson & Johnson say "Ottava" during earnings call?

If U.S. President Donald Trump visits China by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Trump physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of the listed country. Whether or not Trump enters the country's airspace during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.

The primary resolution source for this information will be official information from government of the United States of America, official information from Trump or released by his verified social media accounts (e.g. https://twitter.com/POTUS), however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Zal Trump China bezoeken voor 30 april?

This market will resolve based on the next earnings announcement of Coinbase currently projected to take place on February 19, 2026 at 11:59 PM EST.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed term is mentioned by anyone during this event. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

Any usage of the term, regardless of context, will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the term will count toward the resolution of this market; however, other forms will NOT count.

Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy").

If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once).

A Q&A event will count toward the resolution of this market.

If this event is definitely cancelled, or otherwise is not aired by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be audio of the event.

Will Coinbase say "Bitcoin" during earnings call?

This market will resolve based on the next earnings announcement of EA currently scheduled to take place on February 3, 2026 at 11:59 PM EST.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed term is mentioned by anyone during this event. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

Any usage of the term, regardless of context, will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the term will count toward the resolution of this market; however, other forms will NOT count.

Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy").

If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once).

A Q&A event will count toward the resolution of this market.

If this event is definitely cancelled, or otherwise is not aired by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be audio of the event.

Will EA say "The Sims" during earnings call?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if President of the United States Donald Trump announces he has resigned or will resign the presidency by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

If it becomes impossible for Donald Trump to resign or to announce his resignation (e.g., due to his removal from office by other means, etc.), this market will immediately resolve to "No."

For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that Trump announce that he has resigned or will resign. Whether he actually resigns will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Zal Trump uiterlijk op 31 december 2026 aftreden?

This market will resolve based on the next earnings announcement of Netflix currently scheduled to take place on January 20, 2026 at 4:45 PM EST.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed term is mentioned by anyone during this event. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

Any usage of the term, regardless of context, will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the term will count toward the resolution of this market; however, other forms will NOT count.

Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy").

If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once).

A Q&A event will count toward the resolution of this market.

If this event is definitely cancelled, or otherwise is not aired by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be audio of the event.

Zal Netflix "Live" of "Event" zeggen tijdens de winstgesprek?

This market will resolve based on the next earnings announcement of Google currently scheduled to take place on February 3, 2026 at 11:59 PM EST.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed term is mentioned by anyone during this event. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

Any usage of the term, regardless of context, will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the term will count toward the resolution of this market; however, other forms will NOT count.

Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy").

If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once).

A Q&A event will count toward the resolution of this market.

If this event is definitely cancelled, or otherwise is not aired by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be audio of the event.

Will Google say "Gemini 3" during earnings call?

This market will resolve based on the next earnings announcement of Nebius currently forecasted to take place on February 18, 2026 at 11:59 PM EST.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed term is mentioned by anyone during this event. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

Any usage of the term, regardless of context, will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the term will count toward the resolution of this market; however, other forms will NOT count.

Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy").

If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once).

A Q&A event will count toward the resolution of this market.

If this event is definitely cancelled, or otherwise is not aired by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be audio of the event.

Will Nebius say "Nvidia" during earnings call?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Mike Johnson announces that he will resign from his position as Speaker of the US House of Representatives, or otherwise ceases to be Speaker for any length of time, between December 4, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Note that an announcement of his resignation before the resolution date will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes" regardless of if/when he actually steps down.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the United States of America or official statements by Mike Johnson or his representative, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.

Mike Johnson weg als voorzitter vóór 31 december?

This market will resolve based on the next earnings announcement of PayPal currently scheduled to take place on February 3, 2026 at 11:59 PM EST.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed term is mentioned by anyone during this event. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

Any usage of the term, regardless of context, will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the term will count toward the resolution of this market; however, other forms will NOT count.

Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy").

If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once).

A Q&A event will count toward the resolution of this market.

If this event is definitely cancelled, or otherwise is not aired by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be audio of the event.

Zal PayPal "Stablecoin" of "Stable Coin" zeggen tijdens het kwartaalgesprek?

This market will resolve according to the next date (ET) on which the Trump administration announces a new nominee for Chair of the Federal Reserve.

An announcement from Donald Trump or the Trump administration stating their intent to nominate a specific individual for Chair of the Federal Reserve will suffice to resolve this market, regardless of whether a formal nomination actually occurs. 

Qualifying announcements must explicitly present the relevant individual as the nominee or future nominee for Chair of the Federal Reserve. Announcements of acting or interim appointments, or announcements which merely reveal potential candidates, will not qualify. Media reports, speculation, or other unofficial information will not qualify. 

A formal presidential nomination of an individual to be Chair of the Federal Reserve, made on a listed date, will also resolve this market. Formal nominations are defined as the submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate.

If no qualifying announcement is made by January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No announcement by Jan 31”.

The resolution sources for this market will be official announcements from Donald Trump or the Trump administration and official information from the U.S. Senate.

Zal Donald Trump vóór februari 2026 geen nieuwe kandidaat voor voorzitter van de Federal Reserve aankondigen?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump meets with Delcy Rodríguez by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

An exchange of words, handshake, direct conversation, or other clear personal interaction between the named individuals will qualify as a meeting. Merely standing in proximity, making eye contact, or being present in the same room or event without direct interaction will not qualify.

A meeting is defined as any encounter where both listed individual and Trump are present and interact with each other in person.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.


Zal Trump vóór 31 maart Delcy Rodríguez ontmoeten?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Trump administration announces a new nominee for Chair of the Federal Reserve by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement within this market’s timeframe from Donald Trump or the Trump administration stating their intent to nominate a specific individual for Chair of the Federal Reserve will suffice to resolve this market, regardless of whether a formal nomination actually occurs. 

Qualifying announcements must explicitly present the relevant individual as the nominee or future nominee for Chair of the Federal Reserve. Announcements of acting or interim appointments, or announcements which merely reveal potential candidates, will not qualify. Media reports, speculation, or other unofficial information will not qualify.

A formal presidential nomination of an individual to be Chair of the Federal Reserve, made before the listed date, 11:59 PM ET, will immediately resolve this market to “Yes”. Formal nominations are defined as the submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate.

The resolution sources for this market will be official announcements from Donald Trump or the Trump administration and official information from the U.S. Senate.

Zal Donald Trump vóór 30 juni 2026 een nieuwe kandidaat voor het voorzitterschap van de Federal Reserve aankondigen?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Trump administration or the U.S. government announces that it is sending, has sent, or will send Tomahawk cruise missiles to Ukraine by March 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

A qualifying statement within the specified timeframe will suffice regardless of when the missiles are sent.

For the purposes of this market, official policy announcements from the Trump administration or the U.S. government will qualify. Informal statements, leaks, or speculative remarks will not be sufficient.

The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the Trump administration, the U.S. government, or the government of Ukraine. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used if no direct official statement is available.

Will Trump send Tomahawk to Ukraine by March 31?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Mitch McConnell formally announces an intention to step down or otherwise vacates his U.S. Senate seat before his current term is scheduled to end (January 3, 2027, 11:59 PM ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

An announcement will qualify only if it indicates that McConnell will leave office prior to the scheduled end of his term. Statements reaffirming an existing plan to retire at the end of his term will not qualify.

The primary resolution sources will be official statements from Mitch McConnell, his office or representatives, and/or official communications from the U.S. Senate or government.

Zal Mitch McConnell aftreden uit de Senaat voordat zijn termijn afloopt?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the President of the United States, any member of the Cabinet of the United States, any member of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, or any U.S. federal agency definitively states that a man-made device or weapon exists that is responsible for, or capable of causing, Havana Syndrome or Havana Syndrome-like symptoms by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

VS bevestigt apparaat dat Havana-syndroom veroorzaakt vóór 31 maart?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump administration announces that the United States officially recognizes Maria Corina Machado as the leader of Venezuela by January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Roles that could qualify for leader of Venezuela status include, but are not limited to, "head of state," "president," or other similar roles that give her primary executive authority in the territory of Venezuela.

A qualifying US statement must be direct and unqualified. Conditional, hypothetical, supportive, or implied statements do not count.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government and Donald Trump, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Erkent de VS Machado als leider van Venezuela per 31 januari?

The College Football Playoff National Championship is scheduled to take place on January 19, 2026, 7PM ET.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if either a play-by-play announcer or a color commentator says the listed term at any point between kickoff and the conclusion of this game during its official broadcast. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

Any usage of the term regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market.

Plural or possessive versions of the listed term will count toward the resolution of this market, regardless of the context of their use.

Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy").

If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once).

If the start of this game is cancelled or otherwise delayed beyond January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET this market will resolve to "No".

AI-generated content will not count towards the resolution of this market.

The resolution source for this market is the official ESPN broadcast of this game.

Will the announcers say "Ohio State" during the National College Football Championship Game?

This market will resolve according to the next individual Donald Trump, as President of the United States, formally nominates to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. 

Formal nominations are defined as the submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate.

Acting or interim appointments will not count unless the individual is formally nominated to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Senate (see: https://www.senate.gov/legislative/nominations_new.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Zal Trump Kevin Warsh nomineren als de volgende voorzitter van de Federal Reserve?

This market will resolve according to the candidate Bernie Sanders announces that he will vote for or endorses for the listed election.

If Bernie Sanders does not announce an endorsement by the day before the scheduled election at 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be official information from Bernie Sanders or one of his representatives, or a consensus of credible reporting of Bernie Sanders' endorsement.

Zal Bernie vóór 2 november 2026 ET zijn steun uitspreken voor James Talarico voor TX-Sen?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump publicly and unequivocally announces that he is removing Jerome Powell as Chair of the Federal Reserve before his term is up, or takes formal action toward doing so, such as issuing a directive or formal request by January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Statements which are contingent (e.g. “Powell must step down or lower rates”), statements of intent (e.g.“I am planning to fire Powell”) or other informal statements which are not unequivocal will not qualify.

The resolution source will be official information from Donald Trump however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.


Zal Trump proberen Powell tegen 31 januari te ontslaan?

This market will resolve to “Yes“ if the US House of Representatives by simple majority vote to approve or pass one or more articles of impeachment of President Donald Trump, between July 24, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“.

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will be used.

Wordt Trump tegen het einde van 2026 afgezet?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if either of the following conditions is met:

1.  The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q2 2025 and Q4 2026 (inclusive), as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). 

2.  The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) publicly announces that a recession has occurred in the United States, at any point during 2025 or 2026, with the announcement made by the time the BEA releases the advance estimate for Q4 2026.

Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". 

Note that advance estimates will be considered. For example, if upon release, the advance estimate for Q3 2025 was negative, and the Q2 2025's most recent, up-to-date estimate was also negative, this market would resolve to "Yes". If on December 31, 2026 the latest estimate for quarterly GDP in Q3 2025 was negative, this market will stay open until the Advance estimate of Q4 2026 is published, at which point it will resolve to "Yes" if Q4 2026 was negative or if the NBER declares a recession by then.

The resolution source will be the official announcements from the NBER and the BEA’s estimate of seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly US real GDP from previous quarters as released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product

VS-recessie tegen eind 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if either Bill or Hillary Clinton, or both, provide live or recorded testimony before either chamber of the United States Congress (House of Representatives or Senate), or any of their official committees or subcommittees, by January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

What will Biden say during State of the Union?

Trump
$10,502 Vol.
No

Folks 4 or more times
$22,245 Vol.
Yes

China/Chinese 3 or more times
$2,401 Vol.
Yes

Border 3 or more times
$4,427 Vol.
Yes

Ukraine/Ukranian 3 or more times
$3,898 Vol.
Yes

Bitcoin
$6,290 Vol.
No

Ceasefire
$2,833 Vol.
Yes

AI/Artificial Intelligence
$8,040 Vol.
Yes

Fentanyl
$2,217 Vol.
Yes

Navalny
$3,754 Vol.
No

Putin
$1,560 Vol.
Yes

Hunter
$4,366 Vol.
No

Moon
$3,986 Vol.
No

Marktcontext

What will Biden say during State of the Union?

Regels

What will Biden say during State of the Union?

Marktcontext

What will Biden say during State of the Union?

Over

What will Biden say during State of the Union?

Trump$10,502 Vol.No

Folks 4 or more times$22,245 Vol.Yes

China/Chinese 3 or more times$2,401 Vol.Yes

Border 3 or more times$4,427 Vol.Yes

Ukraine/Ukranian 3 or more times$3,898 Vol.Yes

Bitcoin$6,290 Vol.No

Ceasefire$2,833 Vol.Yes

AI/Artificial Intelligence$8,040 Vol.Yes

Fentanyl$2,217 Vol.Yes

Navalny$3,754 Vol.No

Putin$1,560 Vol.Yes

Hunter$4,366 Vol.No

Moon$3,986 Vol.No

Marktcontext

What will Biden say during State of the Union?

Regels

What will Biden say during State of the Union?

Marktcontext

What will Biden say during State of the Union?

Over

Trump
$10,502 Vol.
No

Folks 4 or more times
$22,245 Vol.
Yes

China/Chinese 3 or more times
$2,401 Vol.
Yes

Border 3 or more times
$4,427 Vol.
Yes

Ukraine/Ukranian 3 or more times
$3,898 Vol.
Yes

Bitcoin
$6,290 Vol.
No

Ceasefire
$2,833 Vol.
Yes

AI/Artificial Intelligence
$8,040 Vol.
Yes

Fentanyl
$2,217 Vol.
Yes

Navalny
$3,754 Vol.
No

Putin
$1,560 Vol.
Yes

Hunter
$4,366 Vol.
No

Moon
$3,986 Vol.
No