This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump signs a reconciliation bill that explicitly eliminates or cuts federal tax credits on Electric Vehicle purchases in the United States by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The bill must be explicitly passed using the budget reconciliation process, which allows for expedited consideration in the Senate and requires only a simple majority.

Legislation which includes specific exceptions where federal tax credits on EV purchases remain available for specified categories (e.g. tax credits remain available for purchase of EV vehicles of one type, or for people in a certain age bracket, etc) will still qualify, as long as the primary outcome of the law is the removal or reduction of federal tax credits on electric vehicles.

This market will resolve based on the first reconciliation bill signed into law by Donald Trump during the market’s timeframe that includes major federal tax policy changes.

If it becomes impossible for Trump to sign legislation (e.g. he resigns), this market will resolve to "No".

This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.