Name: Next UK prime minister?
Start: 2024-05-22T18:29:14.35443Z
End: 2024-07-04T12:00:00Z

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This market will resolve to "Yes" if Rishi Sunak is selected as the next prime minister of the United Kingdom following the general election set for July 4, 2024. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

An interim/caretaker prime ministership will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no next prime minister of the UK is instated by the end of 2024 this market will resolve also resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the UK government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.

Rishi Sunak

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Keir Starmer is selected as the next prime minister of the United Kingdom following the general election set for July 4, 2024. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

An interim/caretaker prime ministership will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no next prime minister of the UK is instated by the end of 2024 this market will resolve also resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the UK government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.

Keir Starmer

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Priti Patel is selected as the next prime minister of the United Kingdom following the general election set for July 4, 2024. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

An interim/caretaker prime ministership will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no next prime minister of the UK is instated by the end of 2024 this market will resolve also resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the UK government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.

Priti Patel

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Penny Mordaunt is selected as the next prime minister of the United Kingdom following the general election set for July 4, 2024. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

An interim/caretaker prime ministership will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no next prime minister of the UK is instated by the end of 2024 this market will resolve also resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the UK government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.

Penny Mordaunt

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Grant Shapps is selected as the next prime minister of the United Kingdom following the general election set for July 4, 2024. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

An interim/caretaker prime ministership will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no next prime minister of the UK is instated by the end of 2024 this market will resolve also resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the UK government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.

Grant Shapps

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Robert Jenrick is selected as the next prime minister of the United Kingdom following the general election set for July 4, 2024. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

An interim/caretaker prime ministership will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no next prime minister of the UK is instated by the end of 2024 this market will resolve also resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the UK government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.

Robert Jenrick

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Kemi Badenoch is selected as the next prime minister of the United Kingdom following the general election set for July 4, 2024. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

An interim/caretaker prime ministership will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no next prime minister of the UK is instated by the end of 2024 this market will resolve also resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the UK government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.

Kemi Badenoch

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tom Tugendhat is selected as the next prime minister of the United Kingdom following the general election set for July 4, 2024. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

An interim/caretaker prime ministership will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no next prime minister of the UK is instated by the end of 2024 this market will resolve also resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the UK government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.

Tom Tugendhat

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Boris Johnson is selected as the next prime minister of the United Kingdom following the general election set for July 4, 2024. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

An interim/caretaker prime ministership will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no next prime minister of the UK is instated by the end of 2024 this market will resolve also resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the UK government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.

Boris Johnson

This market will resolve to "Yes" if James Cleverly is selected as the next prime minister of the United Kingdom following the general election set for July 4, 2024. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

An interim/caretaker prime ministership will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no next prime minister of the UK is instated by the end of 2024 this market will resolve also resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the UK government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.

James Cleverly

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Suella Braverman is selected as the next prime minister of the United Kingdom following the general election set for July 4, 2024. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

An interim/caretaker prime ministership will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no next prime minister of the UK is instated by the end of 2024 this market will resolve also resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the UK government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.

Suella Braverman

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Jeremy Hunt is selected as the next prime minister of the United Kingdom following the general election set for July 4, 2024. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

An interim/caretaker prime ministership will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no next prime minister of the UK is instated by the end of 2024 this market will resolve also resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the UK government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.

Jeremy Hunt

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any person who is not Rishi Sunak, Keir Starmer, Priti Patel, Penny Mordaunt, Grant Shapps, Robert Jenrick, Kemi Badenoch, Tom Tugendhat, Boris Johnson, James Cleverly, Suella Braverman, or Jeremy Hunt is selected as the next prime minister of the United Kingdom following the general election set for July 4, 2024. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

An interim/caretaker prime ministership will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no next prime minister of the UK is instated by the end of 2024 this market will resolve also resolve to "Yes".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the UK government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.

Other

Next UK prime minister?

The ruling coalition of the Netherlands collapsed on June 3, 2025. New parliamentary elections are scheduled for October 29.

This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of the Netherlands following the 2025 parliamentary election.

To count for resolution, the individual must be formally sworn in. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market.

If no such Prime Minister is sworn in by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the Netherlands; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Zal Rob Jetten de volgende minister-president van Nederland worden?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the date of the next UK general election is declared by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the election date be declared, not that the election actually occur within the market timeframe.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United Kingdom, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Zal de volgende Britse verkiezing tegen 30 juni 2026 worden uitgeroepen?

Parliamentary elections are expected to be held in Hungary in April or May 2026.

This market will resolve to the individual who is next officially appointed and confirmed as Prime Minister of Hungary following the 2026 parliamentary election.

To count for resolution, the individual must be formally elected and appointed to the role of Prime Minister. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market.

If no such Prime Minister is confirmed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other.”

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Hungary; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Zal de volgende premier van Hongarije Péter Magyar zijn?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Keir Starmer ceases to be the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom for any period of time between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement of Keir Starmer's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

The resolution source for this market will be the government of the UK, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.

Starmer eruit voor 31 december 2026?

Legislative elections are schedule to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. 

This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of Israel following the 2026 parliamentary election. If an election is called early, this market will immediately resolve to the individual who is officially appointed and sworn in after that election.

To count for resolution, the individual must be formally sworn in. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market.

If no such Prime Minister is sworn in by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Zal Benjamin Netanyahu de volgende premier van Israël zijn?

Legislative elections are expected to be held in Thailand in January or February, 2026. The Thai House of Representatives will select the next Prime Minister of Thailand following this election.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the next prime minister of Thailand is officially selected by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Any prime minister formally selected by passing a vote in the Thai House of Representatives within this market’s timeframe will count, regardless of whether they have been officially appointed by the King of Thailand. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Thailand; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Volgende Thaise premier gekozen vóór 31 maart?

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026. 

This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially appointed and assumes office as Prime Minister of Sweden following the next parliamentary election.

To count for resolution, the individual must officially assume office. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market.

If no such Prime Minister assumes office by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Sweden; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?

Keir Starmer is scheduled to participate in the Prime Minister's Questions (PMQs) in the Commons Chamber in the Palace of Westminster on every Wednesday. (https://www.parliament.uk/visiting/visiting-and-tours/watch-committees-and-debates/prime-ministers-questions/).

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Keir Starmer says the listed term during the next Prime Minister's Question Time event he participates in. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

Any usage of the term regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the term will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count.

Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy").

If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once).

AI-generated audio or video will not count toward this market's resolution.

If no such Prime Minister's Question Time event happens by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". If Starmer ceases to be Prime Minister for any length of time by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

This market is explicitly about scheduled events featuring Keir Starmer titled "Prime Minister's Question Time" (https://www.parallelparliament.co.uk/mp/keir-starmer/dept/cabinet-office/calendar). Speeches, events, or comments that occur outside of named, scheduled events will not qualify toward this market's resolution. If the event contains a Q&A, it will count toward the resolution of this market.

The resolution source will be video of the events. Only remarks which are broadcast or streamed live will count toward this market's resolution.

Will Keir Starmer say "Mr. Speaker" 15+ times during the next Prime Minister's Questions?

Legislative elections are expected to be held in Thailand on February 8, 2026.

This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially selected and appointed to be Prime Minister of Thailand following the 2026 general legislative election.

To count for resolution, the individual must be formally selected for the role of Prime Minister and appointed to the role by the king of Thailand. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market.

If no such Prime Minister is selected and appointed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other.”

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Thailand; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Zal Anutin Charnvirakul de volgende premier van Thailand worden?

Legislative snap elections are scheduled to be held in Kosovo on December 28, 2025. 

This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of Kosovo following the next parliamentary election.

To count for resolution, the individual must be formally sworn in. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market.

If no such Prime Minister is sworn in by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Kosovo; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Zal Albin Kurti de volgende premier van Kosovo worden?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a leadership election for the UK-wide Leader of the Labour Party is scheduled by the specified date, ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This market is about whether a date for any Labour Party leadership election is announced within this market's timeframe. Whether the election is supposed to take place within this market's timeframe or later will have no effect on the resolution to this market.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from the Labour Party, however a consensus of credible reporting may be used.

Verkiezing van Labour-leider gepland voor uiterlijk 30 juni?

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Scotland on May 7, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Scottish Parliament  in this election.

If voting in the Scottish parliamentary election does not occur by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition which received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Welsh Parliament. 

This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Welsh government, specifically the the Electoral Commission of Scotland (https://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/).

Zal de Scottish National Party de meeste zetels winnen bij de Schotse parlementsverkiezingen van 2026?

This market will resolve according to the UK real gross domestic product (GDP) compared with the same quarter a year ago in the "GDP First quarterly estimate, UK" release for Q4 of 2025, scheduled for February 12, 2026, 7:00 AM.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases

If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.

Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.

Zal de bbp-groei van het VK in het vierde kwartaal van 2025 tussen 1,0% en 1,5% liggen?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Spain's Prime Minister, Pedro Sánchez, is removed from power for any length of time between December 2, 2025 and the listed date, ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez will be considered removed from power if he announces his resignation, is dismissed, detained, disqualified, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from fulfilling his duties as Prime Minister of Spain within this market's timeframe.

The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Pedro Sánchez geen premier meer van Spanje op 31 december 2026?

On September 9, French President Emmanuel Macron named Sébastien Lecornu as the new French Prime Minister. He resigned on October 6 after his cabinet faced severe opposition. On October 10, President Emmanuel Macron reappointed him as Prime Minister, tasking him with forming a new government.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Sébastien Lecornu is no longer serving as Prime Minister of France for any length of time between December 4, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

An announcement of Sébastien Lecornu's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

This market's resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Lecornu eruit als Franse premier voor 31 december 2026?

This market will resolve to the candidate who wins the Canadian New Democratic Party Leadership election scheduled for March 29, 2026.

The primary resolution source will be official New Democratic Party announcements; if unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting will be used.

If no official winner has been declared by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

Zal Avi Lewis de leiderschapsverkiezing van de Canadese NDP winnen?

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Wales on May 7, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Welsh Parliament (Senedd) in this election.

If voting in the Welsh parliamentary election does not occur by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition which received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Welsh Parliament. 

This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Welsh government, specifically the Senedd Commission of Wales  (https://senedd.wales/).

Zal Plaid Cymru de meeste zetels winnen bij de Welshe Senedd-verkiezingen van 2026?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Anthony Albanese ceases to be the Prime Minister of Australia for any period of time between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement of Anthony Albanese's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from the Australian government and Anthony Albanese; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Anthony Albanese geen premier van Australië meer op 31 december 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hungary's Prime Minister, Viktor Orbán, is removed from power for any length of time between this market's creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Prime Minister Viktor Orbán will be considered removed from power if he announces his resignation from his role as Prime Minister, or is otherwise dismissed, detained, disqualified, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from fulfilling his duties as Prime Minister within this market's timeframe.

The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Viktor Orbán weg in 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Prime Minister of the Morocco Aziz Akhannouch is removed from power for any length of time between October 2, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Aziz Akhannouch will be considered to be removed from power if he resigns, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from fulfilling his duties as Prime Minister of Morocco within this market's timeframe.

The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Aziz Akhannouch weg als premier van Marokko uiterlijk 31 december 2026?

Parliamentary elections to elect all 125 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.

This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.

If voting in the 2026 Quebec general election does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".

In the event of a tie for the most seats won between this party and any other, this market will resolve in favor of the party that won the most valid votes in the respective election. If this also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).

Zal de Parti Québécois de meeste zetels winnen bij de algemene verkiezingen van Quebec in 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if use of X/Twitter is banned within the United Kingdom by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A ban will qualify if legislation is enacted or government action is taken to bar U.K. citizens from downloading and/or viewing X/Twitter, and/or posting on X/Twitter. Any legislation or government action that meets these standards will qualify, regardless of if or when the ban goes into effect.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United Kingdom and X/Twitter, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

X verboden in het VK vóór 31 maart?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Taiwan's Premier, Cho Jung-tai, is removed from power for any length of time between this market's creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Premier Cho Jung-tai will be considered removed from power if he announces his resignation from his role as Premier, or is dismissed, detained, disqualified, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from fulfilling his duties as Premier within this market's timeframe.

The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Is de Taiwanese premier Cho Jung-tai weg vóór 31 december 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a new Cabinet of the Netherlands is officially sworn in by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

To qualify, a newly formed government, headed by a Prime Minister and composed of appointed ministers must be sworn in before the monarch within this markets timeframe.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the Netherlands, the Staatscourant, or the Royal House (koninklijkhuis.nl); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Zal er tegen 30 juni 2026 een nieuw kabinet van Nederland worden beëdigd?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United Kingdom government formally designates the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) as a terrorist organization by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

This includes designation as a proscribed terrorist group or organisation according to the UK Home Office, as well as the use of Royal Prerogative Powers or Orders in Council, legislation signed into law, or the creation of a new national designation that formally designates the IRGC as a terrorist organization.

Statements by government officials, including the Prime Minister, Home Office, or National Crime Service, will not count unless accompanied by a formal designation.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting or official information from the UK Government.

Zal het VK de IRGC uiterlijk 30 juni als terroristische organisatie aanmerken?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the above actor is officially announced as the next James Bond actor by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market will resolve based on the first official announcement of who will be the next James Bond, regardless of any changes made thereafter.

If no actor is announced as the next Bond within the timeframe, this market will resolve to "No Bond chosen".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Amazon MGM Studios. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Callum Turner aangekondigd als de volgende James Bond?

This market will resolve according to the person who is appointed as the next permanent manager of Manchester United.

If no permanent manager is appointed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other." 

Appointments of 'interim,' 'caretaker,' or other non-permanent managers will not impact this market's resolution.

An announcement of a new permanent manager's appointment before this market's close date will immediately resolve this market to the corresponding option, regardless of when the announced appointment goes into effect.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Manchester United; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Zal Michael Carrick worden aangesteld als manager van Manchester United?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Giorgia Meloni ceases to be the Prime Minister of Italy for any period of time between December 5, 2025 and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement of Giorgia Melon's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

The resolution source for this market will be the government of Italy, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.

Meloni weg als premier van Italië vóór 30 juni?

A United Nations Secretary-General selection is expected to be held in 2026 to choose the next Secretary-General of the United Nations.

This market will resolve according to the listed person who is officially chosen to be the next Secretary-General of the United Nations in this selection process.

Temporary, interim, or placeholder Secretary-Generals appointed before the next Secretary-General selection will not count.

If no United Nations Secretary-General selection takes place or the results of this selection are not known by June 30, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United Nations; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Zal Rafael Grossi de volgende secretaris-generaal van de Verenigde Naties worden?

The 2025 Dutch general election is scheduled to take place on October 29, 2025.

This market will resolve to the first ruling coalition of parties that forms after the 2025 Dutch general election.

If the next Dutch Government after the election is not announced by October 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "No Coalition by October 31".

A party will only be considered part of the coalition if it signs the coalition agreement and provides at least one cabinet minister.

This market may resolve once the first government is officially announced and sworn in by the monarch, with ministers appointed under non-caretaker circumstances.

The following parties will be to be considered for this market: PVV, GroenLinks–PvdA, VVD, CDA, D66, JA21. All other parties (including but not limited to SP, BBB, NSC, DENK, PvdD, FvD, SGP, CU, and Volt) will not be considered. 

Resolution will be based on the listed option that most completely matches the parties included. If the coalition formed after the election includes all of the parties listed in a market option (along with any other parties), that option will resolve to “Yes” unless there exists another market option that more completely covers the coalition.

For example:

If the governing coalition includes GL–PvdA + VVD + CDA + JA21, but no option explicitly lists those four together, the market will resolve to “VVD + CDA + JA21”.

If the governing coalition includes PVV + VVD + CDA + D66, the option “PVV + VVD + CDA + D66” will resolve to “Yes”, while “PVV + VVD + CDA” will resolve to “No".

If the governing coalition does not match any listed option (e.g. the governing coalition is D66 + JA21) this market will resolve to “Other”. 

In the event that multiple market options each contain an equal number of coalition parties, the tie will be resolved in favor of the option whose listed parties together hold the greater number of seats in the newly elected House of Representatives. If this presents another tie, this market will resolve in favor of the listed coalition which received the greater number of valid votes.

This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the Government of the Netherlands.

Zal de volgende Nederlandse regering VVD + CDA + D66 zijn?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed party is a part of the first Dutch government formed after the 2025 general election scheduled to take place October 29. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A party will only be considered part of the coalition if it signs the coalition agreement and provides at least one cabinet minister to the ruling government. Parties that merely provide external support (“gedoogsteun”) without holding ministerial positions will not qualify.

This market may resolve once the first government is officially announced and sworn in by the monarch, with ministers appointed under "non-caretaker circumstances."

If no government is formed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or if another election is called without a government being formed this market will resolve to "No". 

The primary resolution source for this market will be the official announcements from the governing coalition; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Zal het CDA deel uitmaken van de volgende regering van Nederland?

This market will resolve according to the next listed individual that it is announced will leave the Trump Cabinet, or otherwise ceases to be a member of administration.

If none of the listed individuals leave between December 5, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”.

An announcement of the listed individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name is alphabetically first.

For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
A listed individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn. 

The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Zal Stephen Miran de eerste zijn die het Trump-kabinet verlaat vóór 2027?

Parliamentary elections are expected to be held in Latvia on October 3, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed political party or coalition that wins the greatest number of seats in the Latvian Parliament (Saeima) in the next Latvian Parliamentary election. 

In the event of a tie between multiple parties/coalitions for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Latvian Parliament. If a named coalition dissolves and does not contest this election, the corresponding market will resolve based on the number of seats won by the constituent party within that coalition that held the largest number of seats before the election.

If the results of this election are not known definitively by June 30, 2027 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Latvian government, specifically the Latvian Central Election Commission (https://www.cvk.lv/lv).

Zal Jaunā Vienotība (JV) de meeste zetels winnen bij de Letse parlementsverkiezingen van 2026?

This is a polymarket on whether the listed club will win the 2025–26 English Premier League.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed club is officially crowned the winner of the 2025–26 English Premier League. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".

If at any point it becomes impossible for the listed club to win the league (e.g. they are mathematically eliminated), the market will resolve to "No".

If the 2025–26 English Premier League season is canceled or not completed by October 1, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".

The primary resolution source will be official information from the English Premier League. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Zal Arsenal de 2025–26 Engelse Premier League winnen?

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Bangladesh on February 12, 2026.

This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the unicameral Bangladeshi parliament, the “House of the Nation” (Jatiya Sangsad), in this election.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the House of the Nation in this election. If additional seats are contested after the results of this election are made official (i.e. seats reserved for women are contested at a later date), those seats will not be considered for resolution of this market. If a second house of the Bangladeshi parliament is established, seats in that house will not be considered for resolution of this market.

In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition which received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.

If the results of this election are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the election results as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Bangladeshi Government, specifically the Bangladesh Election Commission (https://www.ecs.gov.bd/?lang=en).

Zal de Bangladesh Nationalist Party de meeste zetels winnen bij de parlementsverkiezingen in Bangladesh?

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 New Hampshire gubernatorial election.

A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.

Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

Zullen de Republikeinen de gouverneursverkiezing van New Hampshire in 2026 winnen?

Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Portugal on 18 or 25 January 2026, with a possible second round on 8 or 15 February 2026. A second round will be held if no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. 

This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Portuguese government, specifically the National Election Commission (Comissão Nacional de Eleições, CNE) (https://www.cne.pt/).

Zal António José Seguro de Portugese presidentsverkiezingen van 2026 winnen?

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for Governor of New Hampshire, scheduled to take place on September 8, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off.

If no 2026 New Hampshire Gubernatorial Republican Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.”

The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the New Hampshire Republican Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

Zal Kelly Ayotte de Republikeinse voorverkiezing voor gouverneur van New Hampshire in 2026 winnen?

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from New Hampshire.

If no 2026 New Hampshire Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the New Hampshire Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

Zal John E. Sununu de Republikeinse kandidaat voor de Senaat zijn in New Hampshire?

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Swedish Parliament (Riksdag) in this election.

If voting in the Swedish parliamentary election does not occur by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition which received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Swedish Parliament. 

This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).

Zal de Zweedse Sociaal-Democratische Partij (S) de meeste zetels winnen bij de Zweedse parlementsverkiezingen van 2026?

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NH-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on September 8, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Zal Stefany Shaheen de Democratische kandidaat zijn voor NH-01?

Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026.

This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election.

If the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation.

This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.

Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.

Zal Verenigd Rusland (ER) de meeste zetels winnen bij de volgende Russische parlementsverkiezingen?

Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.

This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.

If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".

In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.

This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)


Zal de CDU de meeste zetels winnen bij de deelstaatverkiezingen van 2026 in Berlijn?

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NH-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.

​​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Zal de Republikeinse Partij het NH-01 Huiszetel winnen?

The Thai House of Representatives was dissolved on December 12, 2025, triggering a snap legislative election within 45-60 days to elect members of the Thai House of Representatives (Sapha Phuthaen Ratsadon).

This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Thai House of Representatives as a result of this election.

If voting in the Thai legislative election does not occur by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition which received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Thai House of Representatives.

This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Thai government, specifically the Thai Election Commission.

Zal de People's Party (PPLE) de meeste zetels winnen bij de Thaise parlementsverkiezingen van 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Liberal Party of Canada holds a majority of seats in the House of Commons for any period of time between December 12, 2025 and June 30, 2026, otherwise this market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve to "No" if Parliament is dissolved before June 30, 2026. 

This markets resolution will be based solely on the number of seats held by the Liberal Party of Canada, not any alliance or coalition of which it may be a part.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from the Canadian government or a consensus of credible reporting.

Next UK prime minister?

Rishi Sunak
$177,518 Vol.
No

Keir Starmer
$295,471 Vol.
Yes

Priti Patel
$168,878 Vol.
No

Penny Mordaunt
$174,547 Vol.
No

Grant Shapps
$187,927 Vol.
No

Robert Jenrick
$137,463 Vol.
No

Kemi Badenoch
$138,971 Vol.
No

Tom Tugendhat
$147,509 Vol.
No

Boris Johnson
$218,154 Vol.
No

James Cleverly
$204,562 Vol.
No

Suella Braverman
$237,295 Vol.
No

Jeremy Hunt
$176,795 Vol.
No

Other
$132,573 Vol.
No

Marktcontext

Next UK prime minister?

Regels

Next UK prime minister?

Marktcontext

Next UK prime minister?

Over

Next UK prime minister?

Rishi Sunak$177,518 Vol.No

Keir Starmer$295,471 Vol.Yes

Priti Patel$168,878 Vol.No

Penny Mordaunt$174,547 Vol.No

Grant Shapps$187,927 Vol.No

Robert Jenrick$137,463 Vol.No

Kemi Badenoch$138,971 Vol.No

Tom Tugendhat$147,509 Vol.No

Boris Johnson$218,154 Vol.No

James Cleverly$204,562 Vol.No

Suella Braverman$237,295 Vol.No

Jeremy Hunt$176,795 Vol.No

Other$132,573 Vol.No

Marktcontext

Next UK prime minister?

Regels

Next UK prime minister?

Marktcontext

Next UK prime minister?

Over

Rishi Sunak
$177,518 Vol.
No

Keir Starmer
$295,471 Vol.
Yes

Priti Patel
$168,878 Vol.
No

Penny Mordaunt
$174,547 Vol.
No

Grant Shapps
$187,927 Vol.
No

Robert Jenrick
$137,463 Vol.
No

Kemi Badenoch
$138,971 Vol.
No

Tom Tugendhat
$147,509 Vol.
No

Boris Johnson
$218,154 Vol.
No

James Cleverly
$204,562 Vol.
No

Suella Braverman
$237,295 Vol.
No

Jeremy Hunt
$176,795 Vol.
No

Other
$132,573 Vol.
No