Name: Trump prison time in NY case before election?
Start: 2024-05-31T16:57:52.030451Z
End: 2024-11-05T12:00:00Z

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This is a market on the anticipated length of prison time for Trump related to his hush money sentence.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump is not sentenced to spend any time in custody of a jail or prison, as part of "The State of New York vs. Donald Trump". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence passed in this case, regardless of appeals. If the first sentencing in this case does not include jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "Yes".

If no sentence is rendered in this case by November 4, 2024, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from involved government(s), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

No prison time

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump is sentenced to spend between 0 (exclusive) time and 11 months (inclusive) in the custody of a jail or prison, as part of "The State of New York vs. Donald Trump". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence passed in this case, regardless of appeals. If the first sentencing in this case does not include jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No".

If no sentence is rendered in this case by November 4, 2024, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from involved government(s), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

1-11 months

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump is sentenced to spend between 12 (inclusive) months and 23 months (inclusive) in the custody of a jail or prison, as part of "The State of New York vs. Donald Trump". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence passed in this case, regardless of appeals. If the first sentencing in this case does not include jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No".

If no sentence is rendered in this case by November 4, 2024, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from involved government(s), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

12-23 months

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump is sentenced to spend between 24 (inclusive) months and 35 months (inclusive) in the custody of a jail or prison, as part of "The State of New York vs. Donald Trump". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence passed in this case, regardless of appeals. If the first sentencing in this case does not include jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No".

If no sentence is rendered in this case by November 4, 2024, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from involved government(s), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

24-35 months

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump is sentenced to spend between 36 (inclusive) months and 47 months (inclusive) in the custody of a jail or prison, as part of "The State of New York vs. Donald Trump". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence passed in this case, regardless of appeals. If the first sentencing in this case does not include jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No".

If no sentence is rendered in this case by November 4, 2024, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from involved government(s), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

36-47 months

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump is sentenced to spend 48 or more months in the custody of a jail or prison, as part of "The State of New York vs. Donald Trump". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence passed in this case, regardless of appeals. If the first sentencing in this case does not include jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No".

If no sentence is rendered in this case by November 4, 2024, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from involved government(s), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

48+ months

Trump prison time in NY case before election?

This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Harvey Weinstein as part of his ongoing New York retrial (People of the State of New York v. Harvey Weinstein) by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Weinstein is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."

If no sentencing takes place by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."

If the sentence falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Weinstein is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in this case.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the New York court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Zal Harvey Weinstein worden veroordeeld tot tussen de 20 en 30 jaar gevangenisstraf?

Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro was indicted in the Southern District of New York on January 3, 2026 on charges including Narco-Terrorism Conspiracy and Cocaine Importation Conspiracy. Maduro was indicted alongside alleged co-conspirators in an indictment titled "United States of America V. Nicolás Maduro Moros, Diosdado Cabello Rondón, Ramón Rodríguez Chacín, Cilia Adela Flores de Maduro, Nicolás Ernesto Maduro Guerra".

This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Nicolas Maduro (Nicolas Maduro Moros) relating to this indictment by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.

This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Maduro is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."

If no sentencing takes place by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."

If Maduro is sentenced to life imprisonment without a specified numerical term of years, this market will resolve to the highest range bracket.

If the imposed sentence falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Maduro is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in the first sentencing for this case.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Zal Nicolás Maduro tot minstens 60 jaar gevangenisstraf worden veroordeeld?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Bill Clinton serves any time in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison between market creation and January 31, 2026 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Bill Clinton in de gevangenis vóór 31 januari?

This market will resolve to “Yes“ if the US House of Representatives by simple majority vote to approve or pass one or more articles of impeachment of President Donald Trump, between July 24, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“.

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will be used.

Wordt Trump tegen het einde van 2026 afgezet?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between November 17, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for whether the individual is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Zal Trump Joe Exotic "The Tiger King" gratie verlenen voor 2027?

This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on former South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol as part of his ongoing insurrection trial by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Only the sentence rendered in Yoon Suk Yeol’s insurrection case including the charge of leading an insurrection will count. Sentences rendered for separate cases (e.g. Yoon Suk Yeol’s trial on charges of benefiting the enemy related to drone flights over North Korea) will not count. If the insurrection case is formally consolidated with other cases into a single judgment, this market will resolve based on the total sentence issued for this consolidated case.

This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Yoon Suk Yeol is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time." If Yoon Suk Yeol is sentenced to life in prison, this market will resolve to the highest bracket.

For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Yoon Suk Yeol is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in this case.

If no sentencing takes place by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."

If the sentence falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the South Korean government and court system; however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Zal Yoon Suk Yeol tot minstens 30 jaar gevangenisstraf worden veroordeeld?

This market will resolve based on whether Donald Trump announces that he will vote for or endorse the listed candidate in the election named in the title.

If Donald Trump does not announce an endorsement by the day before the scheduled election at 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be official information from Donald Trump or one of his representatives, or a consensus of credible reporting of Donald Trump's endorsement.

Zal Trump Steve Hilton in CA-Gov steunen voor 2 november 2026 ET?

An interview of Donald Trump by Katie Pavlich on "Katie Pavlich Tonight" is scheduled to air on January 20, 2026. You can read more about that here: https://x.com/NewsNation/status/2012890752905363662

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump says the listed term during this interview. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

If clips of old interviews or prerecorded videos are aired where Trump is speaking, those clips will count toward this market's resolution.

Any usage of the term regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the term will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count.

Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy").

If this interview is definitively cancelled by Donald Trump or NewsNation, or otherwise is not released by January 21, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". If the interview has not aired in its entirety by January 21, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on what has aired up to that point.

The resolution source will be video of the events. Only remarks which are broadcast or streamed live will count toward this market's resolution. Transcripts will not count.

Will Trump say "Greenland" during NewsNation interview?

YouTuber Jack Doherty was recently arrested in Miami, Florida and charged with possession of a controlled substance (amphetamine), possession of 20 grams or less of marijuana, and resisting an officer without violence.

This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Jack Doherty in relation to these charges by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in relation to these charges, regardless of any appeals. If the charges are tried separately, this market will stay open until the first sentence has been rendered for all three charges and will resolve based on the cumulative sentence imposed across all three charges. If sentencing has taken place for some, but not all, of these charges on October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on sentencing up to that point.

If Doherty is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if his sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."

If no sentencing takes place by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."

If the sentence falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Doherty is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in this case.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Florida court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Zal Jack Doherty geen gevangenisstraf krijgen?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump publicly endorses, or announces that he will vote for, any candidate for the 2028 United States presidential election or the Republican primary for that election by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be official information from Donald Trump or one of his representatives, or a consensus of credible reporting of Trump's endorsement.

Zal Trump vóór 2027 een kandidaat voor president steunen?

Former South Korean Prime Minister Han Duck-soo is scheduled to be sentenced on January 21, 2026 in his criminal case including charges of aiding an insurrection and perjury, among other charges, related to his involvement in Yoon Suk Yeol’s martial law declaration in 2024. You can read more about that here: https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/south-korea-special-prosecutor-seeks-15-year-jail-term-ex-pm-han-martial-law-2025-11-26/.

This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on former South Korean Prime Minister Han Duck-soo in this martial-law related criminal trial by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Han Duck-soo is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time." If Han Duck-soo is sentenced to life in prison, this market will resolve to the highest bracket.

If no sentencing takes place by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."

It does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Han Duck-soo is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in this case.

If the sentence falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the South Korean government and court system; however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Zal Han Duck Soo veroordeeld worden tot 5–10 jaar gevangenisstraf?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any Federal or State jurisdiction of the United States formally charges or otherwise announces a criminal indictment of Bill Clinton between market creation and January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

For the purposes of this market the District of Columbia and any county, municipality, or other subdivision of a State shall be included within the definition of a State.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from US governmental sources, however a wide consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Wordt Bill Clinton voor 31 januari aangeklaagd?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Kim Keon Hee is sentenced to any time in jail/prison for any charges, including but not limited to allegations of stock price manipulation, bribery, election interference, abuse of power, or criminal acts related to Yoon Suk Yeol’s martial law declaration and related subsequent actions, by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This market will remain open through March 31, 2026 or until Kim Keon Hee is sentenced to time in jail/prison, regardless of any initial sentencing that does not include prison. Any sentencing will qualify, regardless of subsequent appeals or changes to the sentence.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the South Korean government and law enforcement; however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Zal Kim Keon Hee tegen 31 maart tot gevangenisstraf worden veroordeeld?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tim Walz serves any time in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison between market creation and December 31, 2026 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Zit Tim Walz in de gevangenis op 31 december?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if President of the United States Donald Trump announces he has resigned or will resign the presidency by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

If it becomes impossible for Donald Trump to resign or to announce his resignation (e.g., due to his removal from office by other means, etc.), this market will immediately resolve to "No."

For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that Trump announce that he has resigned or will resign. Whether he actually resigns will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Zal Trump uiterlijk op 31 december 2026 aftreden?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Han Duck-soo is sentenced to any time in jail/prison for charges related to the 2024 South Korean political crisis, including but not limited to allegations of failure to promulgate legislation, obstruction of constitutional processes, or other criminal acts stemming from his actions as Acting President and Prime Minister by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This market will remain open through 2026 regardless of whether Han Duck-soo's initial sentencing includes prison.  Any sentencing will qualify, regardless of subsequent appeals or changes to the sentence.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the South Korean government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Zal Han Duck-soo vóór 2027 tot gevangenisstraf worden veroordeeld?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Nicolás Maduro is found guilty of all counts in the indictment 'UNITED STATES OF AMERICA V. NICOLAS MADURO MOROS[...]' (S4 11 Cr. 205 (AKH)) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve based on the initial verdict rendered by the court regarding Maduro’s indictment as of market creation (https://www.justice.gov/opa/media/1422326/dl).

If Nicolás Maduro is not found guilty of all counts in the referenced indictment by the resolution time, this market will resolve to “No.” This includes any outcome in which no trial occurs, or that does not result in a guilty verdict or a court-accepted guilty plea on all counts, such as acquittal on any count, partial conviction, mistrial, hung jury, or dismissal of any count.

The market will resolve according to the initial verdict rendered in this case. Any appeals will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.

The primary resolution source will be official information from the U.S. court system; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Maduro schuldig aan alle aanklachten?

On January 3, 2026, Nicolás Maduro was indicted alongside alleged co-conspirators in an indictment titled "United States of America V. Nicolás Maduro Moros, Diosdado Cabello Rondón, Ramón Rodríguez Chacín, Cilia Adela Flores de Maduro, Nicolás Ernesto Maduro Guerra".

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a trial start date in the indictment against Nicolás Maduro is scheduled by January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

If the judge schedules a trial date within this market’s timeframe, this will suffice for resolution regardless of the actual date on which the trial is set to begin. If the trial date is subsequently moved, it will have no effect on the outcome of this market.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Maduro-proces gepland voor 31 januari?

Federal prosecutors opened a criminal investigation into Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell over his congressional testimony in June about the renovation of the Central Bank’s headquarters (See: https://www.cnn.com/2026/01/11/business/federal-prosecutors-criminal-investigation-federal-reserve-chair-jerome-powell).

This market will resolve to “Yes” if this criminal investigation into Jerome Powell is dropped by February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The investigation will be considered to be dropped if it is definitively announced by the DoJ, Donald Trump, or other relevant members of the Trump Administration that the investigation is or will be ended without proceeding to any charges or indictment, or if the investigation is otherwise confirmed to have ended without charges by a broad consensus of credible reporting.

Official statements from Donald Trump or other Trump Administration officials will only suffice to resolve this market to “Yes” if they definitively indicate that the investigation is or will be ended without proceeding to any charges or indictment. Suggestions, informal statements, statements that there will be no charges for now, or other statements that do not meet this standard will not alone qualify.

If the United States federal government formally charges or announces a criminal indictment of Jerome Powell as a result of this investigation, within this market’s timeframe, this market will immediately resolve to “No”.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States Federal Government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Trump stopt Powell-onderzoek voor 28 februari?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Trump administration announces a new nominee for Chair of the Federal Reserve by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement within this market’s timeframe from Donald Trump or the Trump administration stating their intent to nominate a specific individual for Chair of the Federal Reserve will suffice to resolve this market, regardless of whether a formal nomination actually occurs. 

Qualifying announcements must explicitly present the relevant individual as the nominee or future nominee for Chair of the Federal Reserve. Announcements of acting or interim appointments, or announcements which merely reveal potential candidates, will not qualify. Media reports, speculation, or other unofficial information will not qualify.

A formal presidential nomination of an individual to be Chair of the Federal Reserve, made before the listed date, 11:59 PM ET, will immediately resolve this market to “Yes”. Formal nominations are defined as the submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate.

The resolution sources for this market will be official announcements from Donald Trump or the Trump administration and official information from the U.S. Senate.

Zal Donald Trump vóór 30 juni 2026 een nieuwe kandidaat voor het voorzitterschap van de Federal Reserve aankondigen?

This Market will resolve to “US Strikes Iran” if the US strikes Iran before Donald Trump announces a new Fed Chair nominee by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. This market will resolve to “Trump Announce Fed” if Donald Trump announces a new Fed Chair nominee before the US strikes Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

The US will be considered to strike Iran if the US initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate.

For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US missile, this would qualify). 

Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not qualify, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.

The resolution source for the US striking Iran will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Donald Trump will be considered to announce a new Fed Chair nominee if Donald Trump or the Trump administration make an announcement stating their intent to nominate a specific individual for Chair of the Federal Reserve, regardless of whether a formal nomination actually occurs.

Qualifying announcements must explicitly present the relevant individual as the nominee or future nominee for Chair of the Federal Reserve. Announcements of acting or interim appointments, or announcements which merely reveal potential candidates, will not qualify. Media reports, speculation, or other unofficial information will not qualify.

A formal presidential nomination of an individual to be Chair of the Federal Reserve will qualify. Formal nominations are defined as the submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate.

The resolution sources for Donald Trump announcing a new Fed Chair nominee will be official announcements from Donald Trump or the Trump administration and official information from the U.S. Senate.

If the US does not strike Iran and Donald Trump does not announce a new Fed Chair nominee by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.

VS valt Iran aan of Trump kondigt eerst Fed-genomineerde aan?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump Administration publicly releases any files pertaining to Jeffrey Epstein between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Any release will qualify, including re-releases, partial releases, unsubstantive materials, or documents whose contents were already known from prior reporting.

Qualifying releases must be made by the Executive Branch itself, such as through an official government website, press release, or FOIA reading room. Transmissions solely to courts, Congress, or other non-Executive entities do not qualify unless the Executive Branch subsequently makes the files publicly accessible.

The following will not qualify:
-Announcements of releases that are not implemented within this market’s timeframe.
-Releases made exclusively by courts, Congress or its committees, state or local governments, private entities, or leaks not officially attributable to the Executive Branch.
-Leaked, unofficial, or anonymously sourced disclosures.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Zal de regering-Trump vóór 28 februari nog meer aan Epstein gerelateerde dossiers vrijgeven?

This market will resolve according to the next date (ET) on which the Trump administration announces a new nominee for Chair of the Federal Reserve.

An announcement from Donald Trump or the Trump administration stating their intent to nominate a specific individual for Chair of the Federal Reserve will suffice to resolve this market, regardless of whether a formal nomination actually occurs. 

Qualifying announcements must explicitly present the relevant individual as the nominee or future nominee for Chair of the Federal Reserve. Announcements of acting or interim appointments, or announcements which merely reveal potential candidates, will not qualify. Media reports, speculation, or other unofficial information will not qualify. 

A formal presidential nomination of an individual to be Chair of the Federal Reserve, made on a listed date, will also resolve this market. Formal nominations are defined as the submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate.

If no qualifying announcement is made by January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No announcement by Jan 31”.

The resolution sources for this market will be official announcements from Donald Trump or the Trump administration and official information from the U.S. Senate.

Zal Donald Trump vóór februari 2026 geen nieuwe kandidaat voor voorzitter van de Federal Reserve aankondigen?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Jerome Powell serves any time in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.


Jerome Powell in de gevangenis voor 2027?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if previously unreleased documents containing evidence that Jeffrey Epstein blackmailed a politician are made public by January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Blackmail is defined as any use or attempted use of compromising materials or information (such as photos, videos, documents, or incriminating knowledge) to coerce, extort, manipulate, or otherwise gain leverage over a specific person or persons.

Qualifying evidence that Epstein blackmailed any individual requires one of the following:

- A direct statement within the newly released files demonstrating that Epstein blackmailed any individual or group.

- A clear consensus of credible reporting indicating that the newly released files show that Epstein blackmailed any individual or group.

- A clear consensus of credible reporting indicating that Epstein used any materials released as part of the newly released files for blackmail.

General references to Epstein possessing damaging information, vague insinuations, or speculative commentary will not qualify.

Mentions of “leverage,” “influence,” “favors,” or similar language will not qualify unless clearly tied to the use or attempted use of compromising materials for blackmail as defined in this market.

The primary resolution sources for this market will be the content of any released files and a consensus of credible reporting.

Bewijs dat Epstein politici chanteerde vrijgegeven voor 31 januari?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump, his administration (including any executive branch department, agency, or office), or the United States federal government files a lawsuit against Jerome Powell, in his personal or official capacity, by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The lawsuit must be filed in a U.S. federal or state court and must name Jerome Powell as a defendant.

An announcement of a lawsuit will NOT qualify for a “Yes” resolution; a lawsuit must actually be filed.

The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the relevant U.S. federal court. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Zal Trump Powell aanklagen voor 31 maart?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump publicly endorses, or announces that he will vote for, JD Vance for the 2028 United States presidential election or the Republican primary for that election, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".

If Donald Trump announces that he will vote for another candidate or endorses another candidate for the 2028 United States presidential election or the Republican primary for that election, this market will immediately resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be official information from Donald Trump or one of his representatives, or a consensus of credible reporting of Trump's endorsement.

Zal Trump JD Vance vóór 2027 steunen als presidentskandidaat?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any Federal or State jurisdiction of the United States formally brings criminal charges against, or announces a criminal indictment of, Don Lemon between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Civil lawsuits, regulatory actions, administrative complaints, investigations without charges, internal employment actions, or public accusations without the filing of criminal charges will not qualify, even if widely reported or described colloquially as “charges.”

For the purposes of this market, the District of Columbia and any county, municipality, or other subdivision of a State shall be included within the definition of a State.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from U.S. governmental or court sources; however, a broad consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Zal Don Lemon strafrechtelijk worden aangeklaagd?

Donald Trump showed the middle finger to an individual heckling him at a Minnesota Ford plant on January 13 (see: https://www.cnn.com/2026/01/13/politics/ford-plant-trump-middle-finger-flip).

This market will resolve to “Yes” if photo or video evidence shows Donald Trump giving the middle finger to anybody else by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

A qualifying video or photo must show Donald Trump raising his middle finger while keeping the rest of his fingers down in the gesture commonly referred to as “flipping the bird”. Evidence must show Trump making the gesture in a context that could reasonably indicate it is directed at a person or group, even if it does not indicate so definitively.  Past instances such as Donald Trump showing his middle finger at a Black History Month event (https://www.c-span.org/clip/white-house-event/user-clip-trump-middle-finger/4654155) or while speaking to female astronauts (https://www.c-span.org/clip/white-house-event/user-clip-trump-flips-off-women-astronauts/4823553) would both count.

Photo or video evidence of Trump extending his middle finger while keeping the rest of his fingers down in a context which in no way indicates that the gesture was intentional or directed at an individual or group will not count.

AI-generated images or video will not count.

The primary resolution source for this market will be photo or video evidence of Donald Trump raising his middle finger.

Zal Trump in 2026 opnieuw zijn middelvinger opsteken?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States Supreme Court issues an official ruling in the case Donald J. Trump, et al., v. V.O.S. Selections, Inc. by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An official ruling on the case is defined as any decision on the merits of the case issued by the Supreme Court, including but not limited to a written opinion, summary disposition, or per curiam opinion.

If the case is dismissed as improvidently granted, dismissed for mootness, vacated and remanded without a decision on the merits, withdrawn or settled, otherwise concluded without a final merits judgment, or there has been no qualifying ruling for this case by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. 

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States Supreme Court; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Zal het Hooggerechtshof vóór 31 januari uitspraak doen over Trumps tarieven?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if trial proceedings for any case against Luigi Mangione are begun by December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Once the jury is empaneled and sworn in, trial proceedings will be considered to have begun in a qualifying case.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Trump prison time in NY case before election?

No prison time
$1,514,093 Vol.
Yes

1-11 months
$1,025,535 Vol.
No

12-23 months
$3,461,448 Vol.
No

24-35 months
$2,663,690 Vol.
No

36-47 months
$768,705 Vol.
No

48+ months
$684,733 Vol.
No

Marktcontext

Trump prison time in NY case before election?

Regels

Trump prison time in NY case before election?

Marktcontext

Trump prison time in NY case before election?

Over

Trump prison time in NY case before election?

No prison time$1,514,093 Vol.Yes

1-11 months$1,025,535 Vol.No

12-23 months$3,461,448 Vol.No

24-35 months$2,663,690 Vol.No

36-47 months$768,705 Vol.No

48+ months$684,733 Vol.No

Marktcontext

Trump prison time in NY case before election?

Regels

Trump prison time in NY case before election?

Marktcontext

Trump prison time in NY case before election?

Over

No prison time
$1,514,093 Vol.
Yes

1-11 months
$1,025,535 Vol.
No

12-23 months
$3,461,448 Vol.
No

24-35 months
$2,663,690 Vol.
No

36-47 months
$768,705 Vol.
No

48+ months
$684,733 Vol.
No