Name: Liberale meerderheid in het Canadese Parlement vóór 30 juni?
Start: 2025-12-12T21:46:12.034192Z
End: 2026-06-30T00:00:00Z

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This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Liberal Party of Canada holds a majority of seats in the House of Commons for any period of time between December 12, 2025 and June 30, 2026, otherwise this market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve to "No" if Parliament is dissolved before June 30, 2026. 

This markets resolution will be based solely on the number of seats held by the Liberal Party of Canada, not any alliance or coalition of which it may be a part.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from the Canadian government or a consensus of credible reporting.

Liberale meerderheid in het Canadese Parlement vóór 30 juni?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Canadian federal election is officially scheduled for a date prior to October 2029, by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the election date be declared, not that the election actually occur within the market timeframe. (e.g. if on December 23, 2025 an election is scheduled for November 23, 2026, this market will resolve to "Yes").

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the Canada, However a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Nog een Canadese verkiezing uitgeschreven vóór 30 juni?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the date of the next French legislative election is declared by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the election date be declared, not that the election actually occur within the market timeframe.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the France, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.


Franse verkiezing uitgeroepen voor 30 juni 2026?

This market will resolve to the candidate who wins the Canadian New Democratic Party Leadership election scheduled for March 29, 2026.

The primary resolution source will be official New Democratic Party announcements; if unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting will be used.

If no official winner has been declared by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

Zal Avi Lewis de leiderschapsverkiezing van de Canadese NDP winnen?

This market will resolve to “Yes”, if either of the following conditions are met:

1.  The C.D. Howe Institute’s Business Cycle Council publicly announces that a recession has occurred in Canada, at any point before 2027, with the announcement made by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

2.  The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly Canadian Real GDP (expenditure-based), chained (2017) dollars GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q4 2025 and Q4 2026 (inclusive), as reported by Statistics Canada (StatCan).

Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Note that any two consecutive, concurrent vintages indicating negative GDP growth will qualify, regardless of prior or later revisions. For example, if upon release, the initial estimate for Q2 2026 was negative, and Q1 2026's most recent, up-to-date estimate was also negative, this market would resolve to "Yes". If on December 31, 2026 the latest estimate for quarterly GDP in Q3 2026 was negative, this market will stay open until Statistics Canada publishes the initial estimate for Q4 2026, at which point it will resolve to "Yes" if Q4 2026 was negative or if the C.D. Howe Institute’s Business Cycle Council declares a recession by then.

The resolution source will be the official announcements from the C.D. Howe Institute’s Business Cycle Council and Statistics Canada’s estimate of seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly Canadian real GDP from previous quarters as released by Statistics Canada (e.g., as reported in the line “Gross domestic product at market prices” in Table 3 of the quarterly GDP release: https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/250829/t003a-eng.htm)

Canada recessie vóór 2027?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the 2026 US Midterm Elections happen on November 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Zullen de tussentijdse verkiezingen van 2026 doorgaan zoals gepland?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed party is a part of the first Dutch government formed after the 2025 general election scheduled to take place October 29. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A party will only be considered part of the coalition if it signs the coalition agreement and provides at least one cabinet minister to the ruling government. Parties that merely provide external support (“gedoogsteun”) without holding ministerial positions will not qualify.

This market may resolve once the first government is officially announced and sworn in by the monarch, with ministers appointed under "non-caretaker circumstances."

If no government is formed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or if another election is called without a government being formed this market will resolve to "No". 

The primary resolution source for this market will be the official announcements from the governing coalition; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Zal het CDA deel uitmaken van de volgende regering van Nederland?

Parliamentary elections to elect all 125 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.

This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.

If voting in the 2026 Quebec general election does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".

In the event of a tie for the most seats won between this party and any other, this market will resolve in favor of the party that won the most valid votes in the respective election. If this also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).

Zal de Parti Québécois de meeste zetels winnen bij de algemene verkiezingen van Quebec in 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the sitting Israeli Knesset (Israel's parliament), as of this market's inception, is dissolved between September 20 and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Is het Israëlische parlement ontbonden vóór 31 maart?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if both of the following conditions are met as a result of the 2026 midterm elections:

- Democrats hold 218 or more seats in the House
- Democrats hold 49 or more seats in the Senate

Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met.

The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/BlueWave.pdf

Blauwe golf in 2026?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Republican party ceases to hold a majority in the United States House of Representatives at any point before polls open for the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives elections scheduled for November 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

A majority in the House of Representatives means holding more than half of the currently seated voting members of the U.S. House at that time, excluding vacant seats. Ties do not qualify as a majority.  

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States House of Representatives Press Gallery (https://pressgallery.house.gov/member-data/party-breakdown); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Zullen de Republikeinen hun meerderheid in het Huis verliezen vóór de tussentijdse verkiezingen?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Keir Starmer ceases to be the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom for any period of time between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement of Keir Starmer's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

The resolution source for this market will be the government of the UK, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.

Starmer eruit voor 31 december 2026?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, between the Republican Party and the Democratic Party, the Republican Party becomes the favorite in the "Which party will win the House in 2026?" market (https://polymarket.com/event/which-party-will-win-the-house-in-2026?tid=1764045739181) for any four-hour period ending by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET or earlier. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The Republican Party will be considered to have become the favorite for any four-hour period if it is ahead of the Democratic Party in more individual minutes than the Democratic Party is ahead of the Republican Party during a qualifying time period.

A tie in the number of minutes will not qualify.

The resolution source will be the underlying minute-level price data for the “Which party will win the House in 2026?” market, which can be viewed using the bar chart on https://derivative.polymarket.com/index/will-the-republicans-flip-the-democrats-for-the-2026-us-house-elections-by or through the “Resolution” tab with the time set to show the four-hour window. Both interfaces display the same underlying data.

Note: This market will resolve according to the price scoring methodology of derivative.polymarket.com.

2026 Amerikaanse Huisverkiezingen: Draait de Republikeinen de Democraten om tegen 31 maart?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one seat on the United States Supreme Court becomes vacant between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official announcements from the U.S. Government. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.  

Vacature in het Hooggerechtshof in 2026?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if both of the following conditions are met as a result of the 2026 midterm elections:

- Democrats hold 235 or more seats in the House
- Democrats hold 51 or more seats in the Senate

Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met.

The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/BlueTsunami.pdf

Blauwe tsunami in 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Japanese general election is scheduled between November 10, 2025, and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This market is about whether a date for the next Japanese election is announced within the stated timeframe. The date the election is scheduled to take place will have no effect on the resolution of this market.

The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the Government of Japan; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Japanse vervroegde verkiezingen uitgeschreven vóór 30 juni 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a leadership election for the UK-wide Leader of the Labour Party is scheduled by the specified date, ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This market is about whether a date for any Labour Party leadership election is announced within this market's timeframe. Whether the election is supposed to take place within this market's timeframe or later will have no effect on the resolution to this market.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from the Labour Party, however a consensus of credible reporting may be used.

Verkiezing van Labour-leider gepland voor uiterlijk 30 juni?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, between the Democratic Party and the Republican Party, the Democratic Party becomes the favorite in the "Which party will win the Senate in 2026?" market (https://polymarket.com/event/which-party-will-win-the-senate-in-2026?tid=1764796601244) for any four-hour period ending by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET or earlier. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The Democratic Party will be considered to have become the favorite for any four-hour period if it is ahead of the Republican Party in more individual minutes than the Republican Party is ahead of the Democratic Party during a qualifying time period.

A tie in the number of minutes will not qualify.

The resolution source will be the underlying minute-level price data for the “Which party will win the Senate in 2026?” market, which can be viewed using the bar chart on https://derivative.polymarket.com/index/2026-us-senate-election-democrats-flip-republicans-by or through the “Resolution” tab with the time set to show the four-hour window. Both interfaces display the same underlying data.

Note: This market will resolve according to the price scoring methodology of derivative.polymarket.com.

2026 Senaatsverkiezingen VS: Draait de Democraten de Republikeinen om vóór 31 maart?

This market will resolve according to the result of the 2026 United States midterm elections.

A party will be considered to have 'control' of the House of Representatives, if they win a majority of voting seats.

A party will be considered to have 'control' of the Senate if they have more than half of the voting Senate members, or half of the voting Senate members and the Vice President.

A candidate's party is determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time the 2026 United States midterm elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican Parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party that they most recently expressed their intent to caucus with at the time the 2026 United States midterm elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.

If control of the House is ambiguous given the above rules, this market will resolve according to the party affiliation of the first Speaker of the US House who is selected following the 2026 United States midterm elections. 

If control of the Senate is ambiguous given the above rules, this market will resolve according to the party affiliation of the first Majority Leader of the US Senate who is selected following the 2026 United States midterm elections.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called winners of the House and Senate in the 2026 United States midterm elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.

2026 Machtbalans: R Senaat, D Huis

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Emmanuel Macron ceases to be President of France for any length of time between September 14, 2025, and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (inclusive). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If Macron departs from office before the expiry date, the market should resolve immediately.

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the government of France, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Macron eruit tegen 30 juni 2026?

This market will resolve based on the countries that officially recognize Israel as a state between November 20, 2025 and June 30, 2026, 11:59pm ET.

An announcement of intentions will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." Only a government's formal recognition of the State of Israel will count toward a “Yes” resolution for this market.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official government information. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Zal Venezuela Israël erkennen vóór 30 juni?

Parliamentary elections are expected to be held in Lebanon in May 2026.

This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Lebanese Parliament.

If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Lebanese Parliament.

This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Lebanese Ministry of Interior and Municipalities (interior.gov.lb).

Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.

Zullen de Libanese Krachten de meeste zetels winnen bij de Libanese parlementsverkiezingen van 2026?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the “Yes” option for 'Republican Party' in the "Which party will win the House in 2026?" market  (https://polymarket.com/event/which-party-will-win-the-house-in-2026?) is priced over the listed value for any four-hour period ending by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET or earlier. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

A tie in the number of minutes will not suffice.

The resolution source will be the underlying minute-level price data for 'Republican Party' in the "Which party will win the House in 2026?" market, which can be viewed using the bar chart on https://derivative.polymarket.com/index/2026-us-house-election-republican-odds-over-30-by-march-31 or through the “Resolution” tab with the time set to show the four-hour window. Both interfaces display the same underlying data.

Note: This market will resolve according to the price scoring methodology of derivative.polymarket.com.

Amerikaanse Huisverkiezingen 2026: Republikeinse kansen boven de 30% op 31 maart?

Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in Somaliland in late March 2026.

This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Somaliland House of Representatives (Golaha Wakiilada) election. 

If no election takes place by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No election before 2027".

If an election takes place but the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will remain open until the certified results are released. If the results are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Somaliland Parliament. 

This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Somaliland government, specifically the Somaliland National Electoral Commission (Komishanka Doorashooyinka Qaranka) (slnec.net).

Zal de Waddani-partij (Somaliland National Party) de meeste zetels winnen bij de volgende Somalilandse parlementsverkiezingen?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Serbian parliamentary election is officially scheduled between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

This market is about whether a date for the next Serbian parliamentary election is formally announced within the stated timeframe. The date the election is scheduled to take place on will have no effect on the resolution to this market.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Serbia, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Vervroegde parlementsverkiezingen in Servië vóór 2027?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any house of any US state legislature holds a vote, as part of its standard legislative process, on a bill, resolution, or constitutional amendment whose main purpose is for the state to secede from the United States, or to otherwise declare its support for such a secession, by June 30, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A qualifying measure must clearly state its purpose as part of a process for the state to leave, withdraw from, dissolve political ties with, declare independence from, or otherwise terminate its membership in the United States; measures which merely study, explore, or explain a possibility of secession or independence will not qualify. Informal measures of consensus taking such as straw polls or whip counts will not qualify toward this market's resolution.

A vote on a resolution or other statement without binding legal effect but declaring the state's explicit support for secession will qualify toward this market's resolution.

Only a vote taken by a full chamber will qualify toward this market's resolution. Votes held by committees/subcommittees, etc., will not qualify.

This market's primary resolution source will be official records of qualifying votes from relevant state governments, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Stemt een staatswetgever in de VS vóór 30 juni 2026 over afscheiding?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the “Yes” option for 'Republican Party' in the "Which party will win the Senate in 2026?" market  (https://polymarket.com/event/which-party-will-win-the-senate-in-2026?) is priced over the listed value for any four-hour period ending by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET or earlier. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

A tie in the number of minutes will not suffice.

The resolution source will be the underlying minute-level price data for 'Republican Party' in the "Which party will win the Senate in 2026?" market, which can be viewed using the bar chart on https://derivative.polymarket.com/index/2026-us-senate-election-republican-odds-over-70-by-march-31 or through the “Resolution” tab with the time set to show the four-hour window. Both interfaces display the same underlying data.

Note: This market will resolve according to the price scoring methodology of derivative.polymarket.com.

2026 Amerikaanse Senaatsverkiezingen: Republikeinse kansen boven de 70% op 31 maart?

This market will resolve according to the combined outcome of whether there will be another US government shutdown by January 31 (https://polymarket.com/event/will-there-be-another-us-government-shutdown-by-january-31?) and according to which party will win the House in 2026 (https://polymarket.com/event/which-party-will-win-the-house-in-2026?).

The rules and resolution criteria are as follows:

1. Will there be another US government shutdown by January 31?
This market will resolve according to whether the U.S. Office of Personnel Management (OPM) announces another federal government shutdown due to a lapse in appropriations by January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Partial shutdowns count as shutdowns; announcements of office closures due to holidays or inclement weather do not qualify as a shutdown.

The resolution source for this market will be OPM’s Operating Status page (https://www.opm.gov/policy-data-oversight/snow-dismissal-procedures/current-status/).

2. Which party will win the House in 2026?
This market will resolve according to the party that controls the House of Representatives following the 2026 U.S. House elections scheduled for November 3, 2026.

House control is defined as having more than half of the voting members of the U.S. House of Representatives.

If the outcome of this election is ambiguous given the above rules, this market will remain open until the Speaker of the House is selected following the 2026 U.S. general election, at which point it will resolve to the party the Speaker is affiliated with at the time of their election to that position. If the elected Speaker does not caucus with any listed party this market will resolve “Other”.

Determination of which party controls the House after the 2026 U.S. House elections will be based on a consensus of credible reporting, or if there is ambiguity, final federal and/or state election authority certification or other final official determination of the 2026 election results.

Zal er geen Amerikaanse regeringsshutdown zijn vóór 31 januari en zal de Democratische Partij het Huis winnen in 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Bill Clinton and/or Hillary Clinton announce their intention to divorce by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

An announcement by the specified date of their intention to divorce will be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether the divorce later actually occurs, or whether the actual divorce occurs outside of the timeframe of this market.

The resolution source will be statements from Bill Clinton and/or Hillary Clinton, and their representatives, however a definitive consensus of credible media reporting may be considered.

Gaat Bill Clinton scheiden voor 30 juni?

The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, as a result of the midterm elections, the Republican Party controls the U.S. presidency, controls the U.S. House of Representatives, and holds at least 60 seats in the U.S. Senate.

This market will resolve based on the results of all Congress elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.

A party will be considered to have 'control' of the House of Representatives if it wins a majority of voting seats.

If control of the House is ambiguous given the above rules, this market will resolve according to the party affiliation of the first Speaker of the US House who is selected following the 2026 United States midterm elections.

A candidate's party is determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time the 2026 United States midterm elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican Parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party that they most recently expressed their intent to caucus with at the time the 2026 United States midterm elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.

If a Senate seat is vacant but a corresponding election is not held in November 2026, the seat will be considered held by the party of the seat's most recent incumbent.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.


Republikeinen behalen trifecta met supermeerderheid in de Senaat tijdens tussentijdse verkiezingen?

The 2025 Dutch general election is scheduled to take place on October 29, 2025.

This market will resolve to the first ruling coalition of parties that forms after the 2025 Dutch general election.

If the next Dutch Government after the election is not announced by October 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "No Coalition by October 31".

A party will only be considered part of the coalition if it signs the coalition agreement and provides at least one cabinet minister.

This market may resolve once the first government is officially announced and sworn in by the monarch, with ministers appointed under non-caretaker circumstances.

The following parties will be to be considered for this market: PVV, GroenLinks–PvdA, VVD, CDA, D66, JA21. All other parties (including but not limited to SP, BBB, NSC, DENK, PvdD, FvD, SGP, CU, and Volt) will not be considered. 

Resolution will be based on the listed option that most completely matches the parties included. If the coalition formed after the election includes all of the parties listed in a market option (along with any other parties), that option will resolve to “Yes” unless there exists another market option that more completely covers the coalition.

For example:

If the governing coalition includes GL–PvdA + VVD + CDA + JA21, but no option explicitly lists those four together, the market will resolve to “VVD + CDA + JA21”.

If the governing coalition includes PVV + VVD + CDA + D66, the option “PVV + VVD + CDA + D66” will resolve to “Yes”, while “PVV + VVD + CDA” will resolve to “No".

If the governing coalition does not match any listed option (e.g. the governing coalition is D66 + JA21) this market will resolve to “Other”. 

In the event that multiple market options each contain an equal number of coalition parties, the tie will be resolved in favor of the option whose listed parties together hold the greater number of seats in the newly elected House of Representatives. If this presents another tie, this market will resolve in favor of the listed coalition which received the greater number of valid votes.

This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the Government of the Netherlands.

Zal de volgende Nederlandse regering VVD + CDA + D66 zijn?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is announced that Katy Perry and Justin Trudeau are engaged to be married by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If it is announced that Perry and Trudeau have married, it will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Katy Perry and/or Justin Trudeau or one of their official representatives, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.



Zijn Katy Perry en Justin Trudeau verloofd tegen het einde van 2026?

Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026.

This market will resolve according to the political party that gains the greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election, compared to before the election.

If the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats gained, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats gained by the named party in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation.

This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.

Zal Verenigd Rusland (ER) de meeste zetels behalen bij de volgende Russische parlementsverkiezingen?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a U.S government funding lapse occurs on January 31, 2026, 12:00 AM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A funding lapse is defined as the President failing to sign the relevant bill(s) extending government funding by January 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. If a bill extending the funding of the U.S. government is passed and signed by the acting President before January 31, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

For this market to resolve to "Yes," any funding lapse will count. If only a portion of the US government is covered by any signed bill(s) extending funding of the US government, and a portion of the US government goes unfunded, this market will still resolve to "Yes".

The primary resolution for this source will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Amerikaanse overheid sluit op 31 januari wegens gebrek aan financiering?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Chuck Schumer remains the Minority Leader of the United States Senate without interruption from November 14, 2025 through March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Blijft Schumer de Minderheidsleider tot en met 31 maart?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Greenland holds an independence referendum and a majority of voters in the referendum vote for independence by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. 

A referendum to join a country other than Denmark will be considered to be a referendum for independence.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of Greenland and/or Denmark; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.


Zal Groenland in 2026 stemmen voor onafhankelijkheid?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if President of the United States Donald Trump announces he has resigned or will resign the presidency by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

If it becomes impossible for Donald Trump to resign or to announce his resignation (e.g., due to his removal from office by other means, etc.), this market will immediately resolve to "No."

For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that Trump announce that he has resigned or will resign. Whether he actually resigns will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Zal Trump uiterlijk op 31 december 2026 aftreden?

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Scotland on May 7, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Scottish Parliament  in this election.

If voting in the Scottish parliamentary election does not occur by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition which received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Welsh Parliament. 

This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Welsh government, specifically the the Electoral Commission of Scotland (https://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/).

Zal de Scottish National Party de meeste zetels winnen bij de Schotse parlementsverkiezingen van 2026?

This market will resolve according to the party that controls the House of Representatives following the 2026 U.S. House elections scheduled for November 3, 2026.

House control is defined as having more than half of the voting members of the U.S. House of Representatives.

If the outcome of this election is ambiguous given the above rules, this market will remain open until the Speaker of the House is selected following the 2026 U.S. general election, at which point it will resolve to the party the Speaker is affiliated with at the time of their election to that position. If the elected Speaker does not caucus with any listed party this market will resolve “Other”.

Determination of which party controls the House after the 2026 U.S. House elections will be based on a consensus of credible reporting, or if there is ambiguity, final federal and/or state election authority certification or other final official determination of the 2026 election results.

Zal de Democratische Partij het Huis van Afgevaardigden controleren na de tussentijdse verkiezingen van 2026?

This market will resolve according to the combined outcome of whether enhanced ACA premium tax credits will be extended in 2025 (https://polymarket.com/event/enhanced-aca-premium-tax-credits-extended-in-2025?) and according to which party will win the House in 2026 (https://polymarket.com/event/which-party-will-win-the-house-in-2026?).

The rules and resolution criteria are as follows:

1. Enhanced ACA premium tax credits extended in 2025?
Affordable Care Act (ACA) enhanced premium tax credits are set to expire at the end of 2025 if not extended by the federal government.

This market will resolve according to whether a bill extending the enhanced ACA premium tax credits beyond 2025 is signed into federal law by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. 

A qualifying bill may extend the enhanced ACA premium tax credits in any form, including shorter extensions, phased-down benefits, or narrowed eligibility, as long as the bill clearly continues enhanced premium tax credits that have wider eligibility and/or lower required income contributions relative to baseline ACA premium tax credits that would otherwise apply after 2025.

A bill replacing the ACA enhanced premium tax credits with an alternative form of healthcare subsidy, such as direct cash payments to a health savings account, will not qualify.

If the bill is signed into law before 2026, it will qualify to resolve this market, regardless of when it takes effect.

The primary source of resolution will be official information from the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

2. Which party will win the House in 2026?
This market will resolve according to the party that controls the House of Representatives following the 2026 U.S. House elections scheduled for November 3, 2026.

House control is defined as having more than half of the voting members of the U.S. House of Representatives.

If the outcome of this election is ambiguous given the above rules, this market will remain open until the Speaker of the House is selected following the 2026 U.S. general election, at which point it will resolve to the party the Speaker is affiliated with at the time of their election to that position. If the elected Speaker does not caucus with any listed party this market will resolve “Other”.

Determination of which party controls the House after the 2026 U.S. House elections will be based on a consensus of credible reporting, or if there is ambiguity, final federal and/or state election authority certification or other final official determination of the 2026 election results.

Zullen ACA-premiebelastingkredieten niet worden verlengd en zal de Democratische Partij het Amerikaanse Huis van Afgevaardigden in 2026 winnen?

This market will resolve to “Yes“ if the US House of Representatives by simple majority vote to approve or pass one or more articles of impeachment of President Donald Trump, between July 24, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“.

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will be used.

Wordt Trump tegen het einde van 2026 afgezet?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Liberale meerderheid in het Canadese Parlement vóór 30 juni?

Orderboek

Marktcontext

Liberale meerderheid in het Canadese Parlement vóór 30 juni?

Regels

Liberale meerderheid in het Canadese Parlement vóór 30 juni?

Orderboek

Marktcontext

Liberale meerderheid in het Canadese Parlement vóór 30 juni?

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