Name: How many acres will Los Angeles wildfires burn by Sunday?
Start: 2025-01-09T16:51:07.911593Z
End: 2025-01-12T12:00:00Z

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This is a market on estimating the total acres that will be burned by wildfires in Los Angeles by Sunday.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the sum of all wildfires in Los Angeles county burn between 40,000 (inclusive) and 50,000 (exclusive) acres by January 12, 2025, 11:59 PM PT (Pacific Time). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No.”

This market refers to all wildfires in Los Angeles county, over 10 acres, which began between January 7, 2025, and this market's resolution date. This currently includes the Palisades, Eaton, Hurst, Lidia, Sunset, and Woodley fires, however any new fires recorded by the California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection will also count. 

The resolution source is official updates from https://www.fire.ca.gov/. If the website for the California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection becomes unavailable, another credible source will be used.

40-50k

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the sum of all wildfires in Los Angeles county burn between 60,000 (inclusive) and 70,000 (exclusive) acres by January 12, 2025, 11:59 PM PT (Pacific Time). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No.”

This market refers to all wildfires in Los Angeles county, over 10 acres, which began between January 7, 2025, and this market's resolution date. This currently includes the Palisades, Eaton, Hurst, Lidia, Sunset, and Woodley fires, however any new fires recorded by the California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection will also count. 

The resolution source is official updates from https://www.fire.ca.gov/. If the website for the California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection becomes unavailable, another credible source will be used.

60-70k

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the sum of all wildfires in Los Angeles county burn between 50,000 (inclusive) and 60,000 (exclusive) acres by January 12, 2025, 11:59 PM PT (Pacific Time). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No.”

This market refers to all wildfires in Los Angeles county, over 10 acres, which began between January 7, 2025, and this market's resolution date. This currently includes the Palisades, Eaton, Hurst, Lidia, Sunset, and Woodley fires, however any new fires recorded by the California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection will also count. 

The resolution source is official updates from https://www.fire.ca.gov/. If the website for the California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection becomes unavailable, another credible source will be used.

50-60k

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the sum of all wildfires in Los Angeles county burn between 30,000 (inclusive) and 40,000 (exclusive) acres by January 12, 2025, 11:59 PM PT (Pacific Time). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No.”

This market refers to all wildfires in Los Angeles county, over 10 acres, which began between January 7, 2025, and this market's resolution date. This currently includes the Palisades, Eaton, Hurst, Lidia, Sunset, and Woodley fires, however any new fires recorded by the California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection will also count. 

The resolution source is official updates from https://www.fire.ca.gov/. If the website for the California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection becomes unavailable, another credible source will be used.

30-40k

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the sum of all wildfires in Los Angeles county burn between 70,000 (inclusive) and 80,000 (exclusive) acres by January 12, 2025, 11:59 PM PT (Pacific Time). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No.”

This market refers to all wildfires in Los Angeles county, over 10 acres, which began between January 7, 2025, and this market's resolution date. This currently includes the Palisades, Eaton, Hurst, Lidia, Sunset, and Woodley fires, however any new fires recorded by the California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection will also count. 

The resolution source is official updates from https://www.fire.ca.gov/. If the website for the California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection becomes unavailable, another credible source will be used.

70-80k

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the sum of all wildfires in Los Angeles county burn 80,000 or more acres by January 12, 2025, 11:59 PM PT (Pacific Time). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No.”

This market refers to all wildfires in Los Angeles county, over 10 acres, which began between January 7, 2025, and this market's resolution date. This currently includes the Palisades, Eaton, Hurst, Lidia, Sunset, and Woodley fires, however any new fires recorded by the California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection will also count. 

The resolution source is official updates from https://www.fire.ca.gov/. If the website for the California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection becomes unavailable, another credible source will be used.

80k+

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the sum of all wildfires in Los Angeles county burn less than 30,000 acres by January 12, 2025, 11:59 PM PT (Pacific Time). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No.”

This market refers to all wildfires in Los Angeles county, over 10 acres, which began between January 7, 2025, and this market's resolution date. This currently includes the Palisades, Eaton, Hurst, Lidia, Sunset, and Woodley fires, however any new fires recorded by the California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection will also count. 

The resolution source is official updates from https://www.fire.ca.gov/. If the website for the California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection becomes unavailable, another credible source will be used.

<30k

How many acres will Los Angeles wildfires burn by Sunday?

The 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election will be held on June 2, 2026, to elect the mayor of Los Angeles, California. If no candidate receives a majority of the vote, a runoff election will be held on November 3, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the candidate that wins the election.

The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from the City of Los Angeles.

Zal Karen Bass de burgemeesterverkiezingen van Los Angeles in 2026 winnen?

This market will resolve according to the median home value for all property types in the Los Angeles Metro area on February 1, 2026.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

The resolution source will be official data from the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for the Los Angeles Metro area (Parcl_ID: 2900078). The settlement price will be calculated by multiplying the published price index value (price per square foot) by 1900 square feet, which is the median home size in the Los Angeles Metro area. Parcl is set to publish this data on February 1, 2026. If no data for February 1 is released by February 10, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve according to the most recently published data. (see: https://app.parcllabs.com/prediction-market-resolutions/5)

Zal de mediane woningwaarde in de regio Los Angeles lager zijn dan $1.130.000 op 1 februari?

This market will resolve according to the stage of elimination for the Los Angeles Rams in the 2025–26 NFL Playoffs.

The market will immediately resolve once the Los Angeles Rams’ stage of elimination can be confirmed.

If the Los Angeles Rams’ stage of elimination has not been confirmed by February 22, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other.”

The resolution source for this market will be official information from the NFL.

Zullen de Los Angeles Rams worden uitgeschakeld in de Conference Championship ronde?

This market will resolve according to how much "Avatar: Fire and Ash" box office will gross domestically by January 31, 2026. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for all dates between opening (December 19, 2025) and January 31, 2026 are final (i.e., not studio estimates).

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Box Office Performance until and including January 31, 2026, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.

If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.

If there is no final data available by February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.

Zal de totale binnenlandse opbrengst voor Avatar: Fire and Ash minder dan 400 miljoen zijn op 31 januari?

On January 11, 2026, a U-Haul truck drove into a crowd in Los Angeles, during a demonstration in support of Iranian protestors. ABC7 Los Angeles reported that a man was later pulled out of the truck and taken into police custody.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any Federal or State jurisdiction of the United States formally charges or otherwise announces a criminal indictment of the alleged driver of this U-Haul for terrorism, by February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Terrorism refers to any state or federal criminal charge or sentencing enhancement that is named “terrorism” or an equivalent term (e.g. “terroristic threats” would count), that is otherwise explicitly labeled in state or federal law as charges of terrorism, or that explicitly charge the defendant with the use or attempted use of violence or terror for political intimidation or coercion.

Terrorism enhancements of base charges will qualify. Hate crime charges or enhancements, however, will not alone qualify.

For the purposes of this market, the District of Columbia and any county, municipality, or other subdivision of a State shall be included within the definition of a State.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from US governmental sources; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

L.A. U-Haul-aanvaller aangeklaagd voor terrorisme?

This market will resolve to according to the candidate who wins the 2026 California gubernatorial election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026.

If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.

Zal Eric Swalwell de gouverneursverkiezing van Californië in 2026 winnen?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed team wins more than their listed projected number of regular-season games. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".

If the team becomes mathematically unable to exceed their projected win total before the season ends, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary source of resolution will be official information from the NBA. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Zal de Phoenix Suns meer dan 30,5 reguliere seizoenswedstrijden winnen in 2025–26?

On January 11, 2026, a U-Haul truck drove into a crowd in Los Angeles, during a demonstration in support of Iranian protestors. ABC7 Los Angeles reported that a man was later pulled out of the truck and taken into police custody.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if it is confirmed, by either relevant U.S. law enforcement agencies or a consensus of credible reporting, that the alleged driver of the U-Haul Truck that drove into the crowd is a United States citizen by February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market will resolve once official statements from relevant U.S. law enforcement agencies, or a consensus of credible reporting, have clearly confirmed whether the driver was a U.S. citizen. If the citizenship status of the driver has not been confirmed by February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from relevant U.S. law enforcement agencies; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Feitencontrole: is de dader van de U-Haul-aanval in L.A. een Amerikaans staatsburger?

This market will resolve according to the two candidates who receive the most votes in the primary, regardless of party, to contest the seat for California's 17th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The California primary is scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026.

If no nominees are announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.sos.ca.gov/.

Any replacement of the nominees before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Zal Ro Khanna doorgaan na de CA-17-voorverkiezing?

A one-time wealth tax on billionaires has been proposed to potentially appear on California's ballot for the November 3, 2026 general election. You can read more about that here: https://6abc.com/post/california-union-proposes-taxing-billionaires-offset-medicaid-cuts-low-income-people/18066430/

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any proposition containing a one-time tax targeting individuals, households, or family units with wealth, assets, or net worth of at least $1 billion (USD or equivalent) passes in the named election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If no qualifying ballot initiative is certified to appear on the official statewide California ballot as a proposition to be voted on in the stated election by June 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (the official cutoff date for new initiatives to be approved), or if all qualifying propositions/initiatives are removed from the ballot or amended before the election such that the main threshold drops below $1 billion, this market will resolve "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the State of California, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Belasting op miljardairs voormalig vermogen aangenomen in de Californische verkiezingen van 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl LX. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the Super Bowl based on the rules of the NFL (e.g. they are eliminated in the playoff bracket), this market will resolve immediately to "No".

Zal de Seattle Seahawks Super Bowl 2026 winnen?

This market will resolve according to the two candidates who receive the most votes in the primary, regardless of party, to contest the seat for California's 22nd congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The California primary is scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026.

If no nominees are announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.sos.ca.gov/.

Any replacement of the nominees before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Zal Randy Villegas doorgaan naar de CA-22 voorverkiezingen?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a ballot initiative is certified to appear on the official statewide California ballot for the November 3, 2026 election, that proposes a one-time tax targeting individuals, households, or family units with wealth, assets, or net worth of at least $1 billion (USD or equivalent), by June 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (the official cutoff date for new initiatives to be approved). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Certification means the initiative is officially approved by the California Secretary of State for a statewide ballot.

The primary resolution source will be official information from the government of California. If unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. 

How many acres will Los Angeles wildfires burn by Sunday?

<30k
$9,531 Vol.
No

30-40k
$23,777 Vol.
No

40-50k
$29,853 Vol.
Yes

50-60k
$28,924 Vol.
No

60-70k
$34,664 Vol.
No

70-80k
$53,731 Vol.
No

80k+
$37,876 Vol.
No

Marktcontext

How many acres will Los Angeles wildfires burn by Sunday?

Regels

How many acres will Los Angeles wildfires burn by Sunday?

Marktcontext

How many acres will Los Angeles wildfires burn by Sunday?

Over

How many acres will Los Angeles wildfires burn by Sunday?

<30k$9,531 Vol.No

30-40k$23,777 Vol.No

40-50k$29,853 Vol.Yes

50-60k$28,924 Vol.No

60-70k$34,664 Vol.No

70-80k$53,731 Vol.No

80k+$37,876 Vol.No

Marktcontext

How many acres will Los Angeles wildfires burn by Sunday?

Regels

How many acres will Los Angeles wildfires burn by Sunday?

Marktcontext

How many acres will Los Angeles wildfires burn by Sunday?

Over

<30k
$9,531 Vol.
No

30-40k
$23,777 Vol.
No

40-50k
$29,853 Vol.
Yes

50-60k
$28,924 Vol.
No

60-70k
$34,664 Vol.
No

70-80k
$53,731 Vol.
No

80k+
$37,876 Vol.
No