This market will resolve to “Yes”, if either of the following conditions are met:

1.  The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) publicly announces that a recession has occurred in the United States, at any point in 2025, with the announcement made by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET.

2.  The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q4 2024 and Q4 2025 (inclusive), as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). 

Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". 

Note that advance estimates will be considered. For example, if upon release, the advance estimate for Q2 2025 was negative, and the Q1 2025's most recent, up-to-date estimate was also negative, this market would resolve to "Yes". If on December 31, 2025 the latest estimate for quarterly GDP in Q3 2025 was negative, this market will stay open until the Advance estimate of Q4 2025 is published, at which point it will resolve to "Yes" if Q4 2025 was negative or if the NBER declares a recession by then.

The resolution source will be the official announcements from the NBER and the BEA’s estimate of seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly US real GDP from previous quarters as released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product

US recession in 2025?

This market will resolve according to the team that wins the 2025 NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament.

If it is impossible for a team to win the 2025 NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament according to the rules of the competition (i.e. they are eliminated) , the corresponding market will immediately resolve to “No”.

If for any reason no winner is declared by May 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be information from the NCAA.

2025 NCAA Tournament Winner

This is a market on who will be the next Prime Minister of Canada.

Next Prime Minister of Canada after the election?

In the upcoming CBB game, scheduled for April 5 at 6:09PM ET:
If the Florida win, the market will resolve to “Florida”.
If the Auburn win, the market will resolve to “Auburn”.
If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed.
If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.

Florida vs. Auburn

In the upcoming CBB game, scheduled for April 5 at 8:49PM ET:
If the Houston win, the market will resolve to “Houston”.
If the Duke win, the market will resolve to “Duke”.
If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed.
If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.

Houston vs. Duke

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.

This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's May 2025 meeting.

If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)

The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for May 6 - 7, 2025 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.

The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.

This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their May meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.

Fed decision in May?

This is a market on which company will ultimately acquire TikTok.

Who will acquire TikTok?

On January 20, 2025, President Trump signed an executive order delaying enforcement of the Protecting Americans from Foreign Adversary Controlled Applications Act, which bans TikTok in the United States (see: https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/01/application-of-protecting-americans-from-foreign-adversary-controlled-applications-act-to-tiktok/)

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a U.S. government ban that prohibits access or use of the TikTok app by the majority of Americans in the United States becomes legally enforceable for any amount of time between January 22, and April 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET.  Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

If Trump’s executive order delaying enforcement of the ban expires or is removed without TikTok coming into compliance with U.S. laws and regulations, this market will resolve to “Yes” regardless of whether enforcement action is taken by the U.S. government. 

If TikTok is sold to another entity in such a way that it comes into compliance with U.S. laws and regulations this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the US federal government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will TikTok be banned again before May?

This is a market on the outcomes and results of the UFC 314: Volkanovski vs Lopes event.

UFC 314: Volkanovski vs Lopes

This is a market group over how many Fed rate cuts will happen in 2025.

How many Fed rate cuts in 2025?

This is a market on the outcomes and results of the UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Erceg event.

UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Murphy

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) holds an emergency meeting after which the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lowered between January 1 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

An emergency meeting is defined as any unscheduled meeting called by the Federal Reserve Board or the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) apart from the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2025.

The resolution source will be official announcements from the Federal Reserve’s website (federalreserve.gov) or credible news sources reporting on the emergency meeting.

Fed emergency rate cut in 2025?

On February 17, the White House stated that Musk is a Senior Advisor to the President and an employee in the White House Office (see: https://www.courtlistener.com/docket/69638651/24/1/state-of-new-mexico-v-musk/).

This market will resolve to “Yes” if it is announced that Elon Musk will leave the Trump Administration, or otherwise ceases to be a member of administration by June 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET.

An announcement of Musk’s resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

The Trump administration includes individuals formally appointed by Donald Trump to roles within the U.S. federal government, such as Cabinet members, Executive Office staff, senior policy advisors, ambassadors, or White House staff whose appointments are publicly announced by official government channels.

Changes to Musk’s position within the Trump administration (e.g. if he is named administrator of DOGE), will not qualify for a “Yes” resolution.

The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.

Elon out of Trump administration before July?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a military action on Iranian soil, airspace, or maritime territory or against any Iranian embassies or consulates between March 31, and June 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, a "military action" will be considered to be any use of force executed by Israel on Iranian soil, airspace, or maritime territory (e.g. if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an Israeli missile, this market will resolve to "Yes") that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting. This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, or ground invasions. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.

In the case that the "Yes" resolution criteria are met prior to this market's resolution date, this market will resolve immediately.

Israel military action against Iran before July?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if ByteDance announces their intention to sell TikTok by April 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.

A public announcement of the intention to sell TikTok will qualify even if a sale has not been finalized. This includes any formal declaration made by ByteDance or its authorized representatives regarding their plans to sell or transfer ownership of TikTok.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from ByteDance. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

TikTok sale announced before May?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by June 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET.

If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.

Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.

This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before July?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US initiates a military action on Iranian soil, airspace, or maritime territory or against any Iranian embassies or consulates between March 31, and June 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, a "military action" will be considered to be any use of force executed by the US military on Iranian soil, airspace, or maritime territory (e.g. if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an the US missile, this market will resolve to "Yes") that is officially acknowledged by the the US government or a consensus of credible reporting. This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, or ground invasions. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.

In the case that the "Yes" resolution criteria are met prior to this market's resolution date, this market will resolve immediately.

US military action against Iran before July?

This market will resolve according to the GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q1 of 2025 scheduled for April 30, 2025.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product

Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.


US GDP growth in Q1 2025?

On February 1, Donald Trump imposed a 10% tariff on imports from China (see: https://www.whitehouse.gov/fact-sheets/2025/02/fact-sheet-president-donald-j-trump-imposes-tariffs-on-imports-from-canada-mexico-and-china/)

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump signs any federal legislation or performs any executive action which removes the 10% general tariff on China by April 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.

Actions which remove the general 10% tariff will qualify even if there are item specific exceptions for which the tariff still applies. However, lowering the general tariff below 10% without removing it will not qualify.  

Any action which is officially enacted within the market's time frame will qualify, regardless of when the removal goes into effect.

This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.

Will Trump remove tariff on China before May?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if it is announced that Mike Waltz will leave the Trump Administration, or otherwise ceases to be a member of administration by April 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET.

An announcement of Waltz’s resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

The Trump administration includes individuals formally appointed by Donald Trump to roles within the U.S. federal government, such as Cabinet members, Executive Office staff, senior policy advisors, ambassadors, or White House staff whose appointments are publicly announced by official government channels.

The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
