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Eurovision Winner 2026

Market icon

Eurovision Winner 2026

Finland 35.5%

France 11.9%

Denmark 11.9%

Australia 7.2%

Polymarket

$41,914,788 Vol.

Finland 35.5%

France 11.9%

Denmark 11.9%

Australia 7.2%

Polymarket

$41,914,788 Vol.

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Finland

$1,758,403 Vol.

36%

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France

$1,182,054 Vol.

12%

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Denmark

$804,700 Vol.

12%

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Australia

$1,054,083 Vol.

7%

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Greece

$1,197,863 Vol.

6%

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Israel

$1,101,025 Vol.

4%

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Sweden

$795,369 Vol.

3%

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Ukraine

$972,843 Vol.

2%

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Italy

$1,360,468 Vol.

2%

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Malta

$873,378 Vol.

1%

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Romania

$762,282 Vol.

1%

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Czechia

$722,166 Vol.

1%

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Cyprus

$996,317 Vol.

1%

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Bulgaria

$1,016,295 Vol.

1%

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Belgium

$1,122,472 Vol.

1%

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Germany

$786,540 Vol.

1%

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Luxembourg

$776,503 Vol.

1%

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Switzerland

$2,078,556 Vol.

1%

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United Kingdom

$646,532 Vol.

1%

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Austria

$1,453,345 Vol.

1%

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Croatia

$862,803 Vol.

1%

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Moldova

$805,499 Vol.

1%

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Norway

$1,109,762 Vol.

1%

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Portugal

$1,630,271 Vol.

1%

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Armenia

$1,525,728 Vol.

1%

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Azerbaijan

$1,825,662 Vol.

1%

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Georgia

$1,541,111 Vol.

1%

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Lithuania

$979,217 Vol.

1%

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Montenegro

$1,892,630 Vol.

1%

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Poland

$1,420,603 Vol.

1%

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Serbia

$688,714 Vol.

1%

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Albania

$1,454,697 Vol.

<1%

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Estonia

$1,714,379 Vol.

<1%

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Latvia

$1,336,904 Vol.

<1%

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San Marino

$1,669,250 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve to the country whose candidate for Eurovision 2026 wins. If at any point it is impossible for the listed candidate to win Eurovision 2026 based on the rules of the competition (i.e. they are eliminated), this market may immediately resolve to "No". If no winner is announced by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve "Other". All ties will be broken according to EBU's official Eurovision rules. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Eurovision (https://eurovision.tv/), including live footage of Eurovision 2026, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.Traders have coalesced around Finland as the clear frontrunner for Eurovision 2026 winner at 35.9% implied probability, driven by the country's robust national selection process (UMK) that delivered viral hitmaker Windows95man to a 14th-place finish in 2024, fueling optimism for another televote-friendly entry amid Switzerland's hosting. France (11.9%) and Denmark (11.8%) follow closely, reflecting their consistent strong showings—France's runner-up precursor wins and Denmark's reliable staging—positioning them as safe bets in a fragmented field. With national selections not starting until late 2025, current odds capture early sentiment on pop powerhouse nations like Australia (7.1%) and Greece (6.3%), though rapid shifts await 2025 contest outcomes and artist reveals.

This market will resolve to the country whose candidate for Eurovision 2026 wins.

If at any point it is impossible for the listed candidate to win Eurovision 2026 based on the rules of the competition (i.e. they are eliminated), this market may immediately resolve to "No".

If no winner is announced by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve "Other". All ties will be broken according to EBU's official Eurovision rules.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Eurovision (https://eurovision.tv/), including live footage of Eurovision 2026, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.
Volume
$41,914,788
End Date
May 16, 2026
Market Opened
Dec 5, 2025, 7:36 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve to the country whose candidate for Eurovision 2026 wins. If at any point it is impossible for the listed candidate to win Eurovision 2026 based on the rules of the competition (i.e. they are eliminated), this market may immediately resolve to "No". If no winner is announced by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve "Other". All ties will be broken according to EBU's official Eurovision rules. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Eurovision (https://eurovision.tv/), including live footage of Eurovision 2026, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.Traders have coalesced around Finland as the clear frontrunner for Eurovision 2026 winner at 35.9% implied probability, driven by the country's robust national selection process (UMK) that delivered viral hitmaker Windows95man to a 14th-place finish in 2024, fueling optimism for another televote-friendly entry amid Switzerland's hosting. France (11.9%) and Denmark (11.8%) follow closely, reflecting their consistent strong showings—France's runner-up precursor wins and Denmark's reliable staging—positioning them as safe bets in a fragmented field. With national selections not starting until late 2025, current odds capture early sentiment on pop powerhouse nations like Australia (7.1%) and Greece (6.3%), though rapid shifts await 2025 contest outcomes and artist reveals.

Traders have coalesced around Finland as the clear frontrunner for Eurovision 2026 winner at 35.9% implied probability, driven by the country's robust national selection process (UMK) that delivered viral hitmaker Windows95man to a 14th-place finish in 2024, fueling optimism for another televote-friendly entry amid Switzerland's hosting. France (11.9%) and Denmark (11.8%) follow closely, reflecting their consistent strong showings—France's runner-up precursor wins and Denmark's reliable staging—positioning them as safe bets in a fragmented field. With national selections not starting until late 2025, current odds capture early sentiment on pop powerhouse nations like Australia (7.1%) and Greece (6.3%), though rapid shifts await 2025 contest outcomes and artist reveals.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated

Related

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Will Austria come in last place at Eurovision 2026?

19%
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Will Finland be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026?

68%
Market icon

Will Finland be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026?

89%

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Eurovision Winner 2026" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 35 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Finland" at 36%, followed by "France" at 12%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 36¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 36% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Eurovision Winner 2026" has generated $41.9 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Dec 6, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Eurovision Winner 2026," browse the 35 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Eurovision Winner 2026" is "Finland" at 36%, meaning the market assigns a 36% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "France" at 12%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Eurovision Winner 2026" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.