OpenAI's accelerated preparations to file confidentially for an IPO in the coming weeks, with Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley drafting a prospectus targeting a possible September 2026 debut, represent the main catalyst behind the 75.5% market-implied probability that it lists before Anthropic. Recent reporting highlights OpenAI moving up its timeline explicitly to stay ahead of its rival, while Anthropic has discussed a Q4 or October 2026 window but shows no comparable filing momentum or banker engagement at this stage. Both artificial intelligence leaders face similar pressures from rapid revenue growth and competitive model releases, yet OpenAI's concrete steps toward regulatory readiness create stronger trader consensus on an earlier outcome. Upcoming catalysts include any confirmed S-1 filing or earnings updates that could shift the narrow remaining window.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于Anthropic
$63,926 交易量
$63,926 交易量
2027-12-31
Anthropic
$63,926 交易量
$63,926 交易量
2027-12-31
This market will resolve to "Anthropic" if Anthropic completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before OpenAI completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before Anthropic completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve 50-50 if:
- Neither company completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET;
- Both companies complete an IPO on the same calendar date (ET); or
- By December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.
The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.OpenAI's accelerated preparations to file confidentially for an IPO in the coming weeks, with Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley drafting a prospectus targeting a possible September 2026 debut, represent the main catalyst behind the 75.5% market-implied probability that it lists before Anthropic. Recent reporting highlights OpenAI moving up its timeline explicitly to stay ahead of its rival, while Anthropic has discussed a Q4 or October 2026 window but shows no comparable filing momentum or banker engagement at this stage. Both artificial intelligence leaders face similar pressures from rapid revenue growth and competitive model releases, yet OpenAI's concrete steps toward regulatory readiness create stronger trader consensus on an earlier outcome. Upcoming catalysts include any confirmed S-1 filing or earnings updates that could shift the narrow remaining window.
This market will resolve to "Anthropic" if Anthropic completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before OpenAI completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before Anthropic completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve 50-50 if:
- Neither company completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET;
- Both companies complete an IPO on the same calendar date (ET); or
- By December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.
The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before Anthropic completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve 50-50 if:
- Neither company completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET;
- Both companies complete an IPO on the same calendar date (ET); or
- By December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.
The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.
市场开放时间： Jan 30, 2026, 5:43 PM ET
交易量
$63,926结束日期
2027-12-31市场开放时间
Jan 30, 2026, 5:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Anthropic" if Anthropic completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before OpenAI completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before Anthropic completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve 50-50 if:
- Neither company completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET;
- Both companies complete an IPO on the same calendar date (ET); or
- By December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.
The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.OpenAI's accelerated preparations to file confidentially for an IPO in the coming weeks, with Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley drafting a prospectus targeting a possible September 2026 debut, represent the main catalyst behind the 75.5% market-implied probability that it lists before Anthropic. Recent reporting highlights OpenAI moving up its timeline explicitly to stay ahead of its rival, while Anthropic has discussed a Q4 or October 2026 window but shows no comparable filing momentum or banker engagement at this stage. Both artificial intelligence leaders face similar pressures from rapid revenue growth and competitive model releases, yet OpenAI's concrete steps toward regulatory readiness create stronger trader consensus on an earlier outcome. Upcoming catalysts include any confirmed S-1 filing or earnings updates that could shift the narrow remaining window.
This market will resolve to "Anthropic" if Anthropic completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before OpenAI completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before Anthropic completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve 50-50 if:
- Neither company completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET;
- Both companies complete an IPO on the same calendar date (ET); or
- By December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.
The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before Anthropic completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve 50-50 if:
- Neither company completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET;
- Both companies complete an IPO on the same calendar date (ET); or
- By December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.
The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$63,926结束日期
2027-12-31市场开放时间
Jan 30, 2026, 5:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...OpenAI's accelerated preparations to file confidentially for an IPO in the coming weeks, with Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley drafting a prospectus targeting a possible September 2026 debut, represent the main catalyst behind the 75.5% market-implied probability that it lists before Anthropic. Recent reporting highlights OpenAI moving up its timeline explicitly to stay ahead of its rival, while Anthropic has discussed a Q4 or October 2026 window but shows no comparable filing momentum or banker engagement at this stage. Both artificial intelligence leaders face similar pressures from rapid revenue growth and competitive model releases, yet OpenAI's concrete steps toward regulatory readiness create stronger trader consensus on an earlier outcome. Upcoming catalysts include any confirmed S-1 filing or earnings updates that could shift the narrow remaining window.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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