Trader consensus favors Anthropic with a 66.5% implied probability to IPO before OpenAI, propelled by late-March reports of the AI safety lab hiring Wilson Sonsini for IPO groundwork and bankers pitching a potential Q4 2026 listing raising over $60 billion at a $380 billion valuation following a $30 billion funding round. Anthropic's revenue surge to $4 billion annualized underscores its path from strength, contrasting OpenAI's early-April internal rift where CFO Sarah Friar challenged CEO Sam Altman's aggressive timeline amid projections of $121 billion in AI compute spending by 2028. Both labs eye late-2026 debuts, but traders see Anthropic's smoother preparations and lower cash burn as key edges, with S-1 filings as the next catalyst.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedAnthropic
$53,169 Vol.
$53,169 Vol.
Dec 31, 2027
Anthropic
$53,169 Vol.
$53,169 Vol.
Dec 31, 2027
This market will resolve to "Anthropic" if Anthropic completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before OpenAI completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before Anthropic completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve 50-50 if:
- Neither company completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET;
- Both companies complete an IPO on the same calendar date (ET); or
- By December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.
The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus favors Anthropic with a 66.5% implied probability to IPO before OpenAI, propelled by late-March reports of the AI safety lab hiring Wilson Sonsini for IPO groundwork and bankers pitching a potential Q4 2026 listing raising over $60 billion at a $380 billion valuation following a $30 billion funding round. Anthropic's revenue surge to $4 billion annualized underscores its path from strength, contrasting OpenAI's early-April internal rift where CFO Sarah Friar challenged CEO Sam Altman's aggressive timeline amid projections of $121 billion in AI compute spending by 2028. Both labs eye late-2026 debuts, but traders see Anthropic's smoother preparations and lower cash burn as key edges, with S-1 filings as the next catalyst.
This market will resolve to "Anthropic" if Anthropic completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before OpenAI completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before Anthropic completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve 50-50 if:
- Neither company completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET;
- Both companies complete an IPO on the same calendar date (ET); or
- By December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.
The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before Anthropic completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve 50-50 if:
- Neither company completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET;
- Both companies complete an IPO on the same calendar date (ET); or
- By December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.
The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Jan 30, 2026, 5:43 PM ET
Volume
$53,169End Date
Dec 31, 2027Market Opened
Jan 30, 2026, 5:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Anthropic" if Anthropic completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before OpenAI completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before Anthropic completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve 50-50 if:
- Neither company completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET;
- Both companies complete an IPO on the same calendar date (ET); or
- By December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.
The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus favors Anthropic with a 66.5% implied probability to IPO before OpenAI, propelled by late-March reports of the AI safety lab hiring Wilson Sonsini for IPO groundwork and bankers pitching a potential Q4 2026 listing raising over $60 billion at a $380 billion valuation following a $30 billion funding round. Anthropic's revenue surge to $4 billion annualized underscores its path from strength, contrasting OpenAI's early-April internal rift where CFO Sarah Friar challenged CEO Sam Altman's aggressive timeline amid projections of $121 billion in AI compute spending by 2028. Both labs eye late-2026 debuts, but traders see Anthropic's smoother preparations and lower cash burn as key edges, with S-1 filings as the next catalyst.
This market will resolve to "Anthropic" if Anthropic completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before OpenAI completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before Anthropic completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve 50-50 if:
- Neither company completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET;
- Both companies complete an IPO on the same calendar date (ET); or
- By December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.
The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before Anthropic completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve 50-50 if:
- Neither company completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET;
- Both companies complete an IPO on the same calendar date (ET); or
- By December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.
The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$53,169End Date
Dec 31, 2027Market Opened
Jan 30, 2026, 5:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus favors Anthropic with a 66.5% implied probability to IPO before OpenAI, propelled by late-March reports of the AI safety lab hiring Wilson Sonsini for IPO groundwork and bankers pitching a potential Q4 2026 listing raising over $60 billion at a $380 billion valuation following a $30 billion funding round. Anthropic's revenue surge to $4 billion annualized underscores its path from strength, contrasting OpenAI's early-April internal rift where CFO Sarah Friar challenged CEO Sam Altman's aggressive timeline amid projections of $121 billion in AI compute spending by 2028. Both labs eye late-2026 debuts, but traders see Anthropic's smoother preparations and lower cash burn as key edges, with S-1 filings as the next catalyst.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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