The trader consensus assigning a 94% probability against Donald Trump resigning before 2027 rests on the historical rarity of U.S. presidential resignations and the absence of any recent developments indicating an early exit. Trump has publicly committed to serving his full term following the 2024 election, with no reported health issues, major scandals, or institutional pressures emerging in 2025 or early 2026 to alter that trajectory. Senate and House dynamics show continued Republican alignment on key legislative priorities, reducing incentives for voluntary departure. While late-breaking events such as significant health developments or unforeseen legal resolutions could theoretically shift odds, current conditions point to completion of the term as the baseline expectation among market participants.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트예
$18,295 거래량
$18,295 거래량
2026.12.31
예
$18,295 거래량
$18,295 거래량
2026.12.31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if President of the United States Donald Trump announces he has resigned or will resign the presidency by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
If it becomes impossible for Donald Trump to resign or to announce his resignation (e.g., due to his removal from office by other means, etc.), this market will immediately resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that Trump announce that he has resigned or will resign. Whether he actually resigns will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.The trader consensus assigning a 94% probability against Donald Trump resigning before 2027 rests on the historical rarity of U.S. presidential resignations and the absence of any recent developments indicating an early exit. Trump has publicly committed to serving his full term following the 2024 election, with no reported health issues, major scandals, or institutional pressures emerging in 2025 or early 2026 to alter that trajectory. Senate and House dynamics show continued Republican alignment on key legislative priorities, reducing incentives for voluntary departure. While late-breaking events such as significant health developments or unforeseen legal resolutions could theoretically shift odds, current conditions point to completion of the term as the baseline expectation among market participants.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if President of the United States Donald Trump announces he has resigned or will resign the presidency by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
If it becomes impossible for Donald Trump to resign or to announce his resignation (e.g., due to his removal from office by other means, etc.), this market will immediately resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that Trump announce that he has resigned or will resign. Whether he actually resigns will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
If it becomes impossible for Donald Trump to resign or to announce his resignation (e.g., due to his removal from office by other means, etc.), this market will immediately resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that Trump announce that he has resigned or will resign. Whether he actually resigns will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
마켓 개설일: Nov 5, 2025, 5:00 PM ET
거래량
$18,295종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Nov 5, 2025, 5:00 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if President of the United States Donald Trump announces he has resigned or will resign the presidency by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
If it becomes impossible for Donald Trump to resign or to announce his resignation (e.g., due to his removal from office by other means, etc.), this market will immediately resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that Trump announce that he has resigned or will resign. Whether he actually resigns will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.The trader consensus assigning a 94% probability against Donald Trump resigning before 2027 rests on the historical rarity of U.S. presidential resignations and the absence of any recent developments indicating an early exit. Trump has publicly committed to serving his full term following the 2024 election, with no reported health issues, major scandals, or institutional pressures emerging in 2025 or early 2026 to alter that trajectory. Senate and House dynamics show continued Republican alignment on key legislative priorities, reducing incentives for voluntary departure. While late-breaking events such as significant health developments or unforeseen legal resolutions could theoretically shift odds, current conditions point to completion of the term as the baseline expectation among market participants.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if President of the United States Donald Trump announces he has resigned or will resign the presidency by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
If it becomes impossible for Donald Trump to resign or to announce his resignation (e.g., due to his removal from office by other means, etc.), this market will immediately resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that Trump announce that he has resigned or will resign. Whether he actually resigns will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
If it becomes impossible for Donald Trump to resign or to announce his resignation (e.g., due to his removal from office by other means, etc.), this market will immediately resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that Trump announce that he has resigned or will resign. Whether he actually resigns will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
거래량
$18,295종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Nov 5, 2025, 5:00 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The trader consensus assigning a 94% probability against Donald Trump resigning before 2027 rests on the historical rarity of U.S. presidential resignations and the absence of any recent developments indicating an early exit. Trump has publicly committed to serving his full term following the 2024 election, with no reported health issues, major scandals, or institutional pressures emerging in 2025 or early 2026 to alter that trajectory. Senate and House dynamics show continued Republican alignment on key legislative priorities, reducing incentives for voluntary departure. While late-breaking events such as significant health developments or unforeseen legal resolutions could theoretically shift odds, current conditions point to completion of the term as the baseline expectation among market participants.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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