France's minority government under Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu continues to navigate a fragmented National Assembly, a legacy of the 2024 snap elections that produced a hung parliament, fostering trader consensus for a 58.5% implied probability of failing to pass the 2027 budget by December 31. The 2026 budget, delayed past its deadline, was only adopted in early February after repeated use of Article 49.3 to bypass votes and surviving multiple no-confidence motions in January, highlighting chronic gridlock over deficit cuts and spending priorities. No major developments have emerged in the past 30 days, but upcoming presentation of the 2027 projet de loi de finances in autumn could trigger similar impasse, with opposition from left-wing and far-right blocs on fiscal austerity.