US intelligence agencies' March 2026 threat assessment concluded that Chinese leaders do not plan a Taiwan invasion by 2027 and lack a fixed timeline, preferring unification through non-military coercion, driving trader consensus toward a 93.5% implied probability of no invasion by September 30. Recent PLA military drills around Taiwan, including warplane incursions and naval activity as late as April 17, represent routine gray-zone pressure rather than invasion rehearsals, amid quieter flight patterns earlier in March. Taiwan bolsters asymmetric defenses like drone tactics and extended conscription, while US deterrence and economic interdependence raise invasion costs. Beijing's April 10 meeting with Taiwanese opposition leaders signals diplomatic overtures. Late escalations, such as major blockades or diplomatic ruptures, could shift odds.