Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects near-certainty at 97.5% for no Chinese invasion of Taiwan by June 30, driven by the U.S. intelligence community's March 2026 Annual Threat Assessment concluding Beijing lacks concrete plans for a near-term assault, preferring unification through non-military coercion amid ongoing PLA leadership purges that have disrupted command structures and readiness. Recent diplomatic overtures, including Xi Jinping's April meeting with Taiwan's opposition Kuomintang leader and Beijing's announcement of 10 economic and cultural exchange measures like resumed direct flights, signal de-escalation in cross-Strait relations rather than escalation. Routine PLA drills in the Taiwan Strait continue without invasion-scale buildup, underscoring high barriers like amphibious logistics and potential U.S. intervention. Realistic shifts could stem from unforeseen crises, such as a Taiwan independence declaration or global distraction enabling rapid mobilization, though these remain low-probability amid the tight timeline.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트예
$6,120,664 거래량
$6,120,664 거래량
2026.06.30
예
$6,120,664 거래량
$6,120,664 거래량
2026.06.30
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects near-certainty at 97.5% for no Chinese invasion of Taiwan by June 30, driven by the U.S. intelligence community's March 2026 Annual Threat Assessment concluding Beijing lacks concrete plans for a near-term assault, preferring unification through non-military coercion amid ongoing PLA leadership purges that have disrupted command structures and readiness. Recent diplomatic overtures, including Xi Jinping's April meeting with Taiwan's opposition Kuomintang leader and Beijing's announcement of 10 economic and cultural exchange measures like resumed direct flights, signal de-escalation in cross-Strait relations rather than escalation. Routine PLA drills in the Taiwan Strait continue without invasion-scale buildup, underscoring high barriers like amphibious logistics and potential U.S. intervention. Realistic shifts could stem from unforeseen crises, such as a Taiwan independence declaration or global distraction enabling rapid mobilization, though these remain low-probability amid the tight timeline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
마켓 개설일: Dec 17, 2025, 3:24 PM ET
거래량
$6,120,664종료일
2026.06.30마켓 개설일
Dec 17, 2025, 3:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects near-certainty at 97.5% for no Chinese invasion of Taiwan by June 30, driven by the U.S. intelligence community's March 2026 Annual Threat Assessment concluding Beijing lacks concrete plans for a near-term assault, preferring unification through non-military coercion amid ongoing PLA leadership purges that have disrupted command structures and readiness. Recent diplomatic overtures, including Xi Jinping's April meeting with Taiwan's opposition Kuomintang leader and Beijing's announcement of 10 economic and cultural exchange measures like resumed direct flights, signal de-escalation in cross-Strait relations rather than escalation. Routine PLA drills in the Taiwan Strait continue without invasion-scale buildup, underscoring high barriers like amphibious logistics and potential U.S. intervention. Realistic shifts could stem from unforeseen crises, such as a Taiwan independence declaration or global distraction enabling rapid mobilization, though these remain low-probability amid the tight timeline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
거래량
$6,120,664종료일
2026.06.30마켓 개설일
Dec 17, 2025, 3:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects near-certainty at 97.5% for no Chinese invasion of Taiwan by June 30, driven by the U.S. intelligence community's March 2026 Annual Threat Assessment concluding Beijing lacks concrete plans for a near-term assault, preferring unification through non-military coercion amid ongoing PLA leadership purges that have disrupted command structures and readiness. Recent diplomatic overtures, including Xi Jinping's April meeting with Taiwan's opposition Kuomintang leader and Beijing's announcement of 10 economic and cultural exchange measures like resumed direct flights, signal de-escalation in cross-Strait relations rather than escalation. Routine PLA drills in the Taiwan Strait continue without invasion-scale buildup, underscoring high barriers like amphibious logistics and potential U.S. intervention. Realistic shifts could stem from unforeseen crises, such as a Taiwan independence declaration or global distraction enabling rapid mobilization, though these remain low-probability amid the tight timeline.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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