Ahead of the April 21 special election, recent polls including Quantus Insights (51% Yes, 47% No) and State Navigate (50% Yes, 45% No, April 10-13) indicate slim support for the constitutional amendment permitting the General Assembly temporary authority to redraw congressional districts ahead of 2026 midterms, driving trader consensus toward narrow passage margins of 3-6% (26.5%) and 6-9% (24.0%). Surging early voting nearing 1 million ballots—strong in both Republican districts like CD-1 and CD-5 and Northern Virginia Democratic areas—coupled with GOP rural rallies featuring Speaker Mike Johnson and final Democratic pushes from national allies, underscores high mobilization amid enthusiasm gaps. Special election turnout uncertainties and regional divides maintain the tight race, with Election Day potentially decisive.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트버지니아 재지정 국민투표: 승리의 여백
버지니아 재지정 국민투표: 승리의 여백
3-6% 차이로 통과 27%
6~9% 차이로 통과 24%
부결 16.3%
3% 미만 통과 15%
$14,778 거래량
$14,778 거래량
2026.04.21
15% 이상 통과
5%
12-15% 차이로 통과
11%
9-12%로 통과
12%
6~9% 차이로 통과
24%
3-6% 차이로 통과
27%
3% 미만 통과
15%
부결
16%
3-6% 차이로 통과 27%
6~9% 차이로 통과 24%
부결 16.3%
3% 미만 통과 15%
$14,778 거래량
$14,778 거래량
2026.04.21
15% 이상 통과
$1,898 거래량
5%
12-15% 차이로 통과
$890 거래량
11%
9-12%로 통과
$1,711 거래량
12%
6~9% 차이로 통과
$919 거래량
24%
3-6% 차이로 통과
$1,794 거래량
27%
3% 미만 통과
$714 거래량
15%
부결
$6,852 거래량
16%
Pending legal challenges, Virginia is scheduled to vote in a special election on April 21, 2026, over a referendum to amend the state constitution, allowing the Virginia General Assembly to redraw its congressional districts (see: https://www.elections.virginia.gov/election-law/proposed-amendment-for-april-2026-special-election/).
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the valid “Yes” and valid “No” votes cast in this referendum.
If the margin of victory falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
For the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the “Yes” option and the “No” option in this referendum. Percentages of valid votes for each option will be determined by dividing the total number of valid “Yes” or “No” votes by the sum of all valid votes cast in the referendum.
If the number of valid “Yes” and valid “No” votes is exactly equal, this market will resolve to “No Pass”.
If the referendum vote is postponed prior to November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will remain open until the referendum vote occurs and resolve based on the results of that vote. If this referendum vote is postponed after November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or, for any other reason, the referendum vote does not take place by that time, this market will resolve to “No Pass”.
If the referendum vote is definitively canceled, with no opportunity to be rescheduled, this market will resolve immediately to “No Pass”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this referendum vote, according to a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official referendum results reported by the State of Virginia, specifically the Department of Elections (https://www.elections.virginia.gov/).Ahead of the April 21 special election, recent polls including Quantus Insights (51% Yes, 47% No) and State Navigate (50% Yes, 45% No, April 10-13) indicate slim support for the constitutional amendment permitting the General Assembly temporary authority to redraw congressional districts ahead of 2026 midterms, driving trader consensus toward narrow passage margins of 3-6% (26.5%) and 6-9% (24.0%). Surging early voting nearing 1 million ballots—strong in both Republican districts like CD-1 and CD-5 and Northern Virginia Democratic areas—coupled with GOP rural rallies featuring Speaker Mike Johnson and final Democratic pushes from national allies, underscores high mobilization amid enthusiasm gaps. Special election turnout uncertainties and regional divides maintain the tight race, with Election Day potentially decisive.
Pending legal challenges, Virginia is scheduled to vote in a special election on April 21, 2026, over a referendum to amend the state constitution, allowing the Virginia General Assembly to redraw its congressional districts (see: https://www.elections.virginia.gov/election-law/proposed-amendment-for-april-2026-special-election/).
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the valid “Yes” and valid “No” votes cast in this referendum.
If the margin of victory falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
For the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the “Yes” option and the “No” option in this referendum. Percentages of valid votes for each option will be determined by dividing the total number of valid “Yes” or “No” votes by the sum of all valid votes cast in the referendum.
If the number of valid “Yes” and valid “No” votes is exactly equal, this market will resolve to “No Pass”.
If the referendum vote is postponed prior to November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will remain open until the referendum vote occurs and resolve based on the results of that vote. If this referendum vote is postponed after November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or, for any other reason, the referendum vote does not take place by that time, this market will resolve to “No Pass”.
If the referendum vote is definitively canceled, with no opportunity to be rescheduled, this market will resolve immediately to “No Pass”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this referendum vote, according to a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official referendum results reported by the State of Virginia, specifically the Department of Elections (https://www.elections.virginia.gov/).
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the valid “Yes” and valid “No” votes cast in this referendum.
If the margin of victory falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
For the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the “Yes” option and the “No” option in this referendum. Percentages of valid votes for each option will be determined by dividing the total number of valid “Yes” or “No” votes by the sum of all valid votes cast in the referendum.
If the number of valid “Yes” and valid “No” votes is exactly equal, this market will resolve to “No Pass”.
If the referendum vote is postponed prior to November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will remain open until the referendum vote occurs and resolve based on the results of that vote. If this referendum vote is postponed after November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or, for any other reason, the referendum vote does not take place by that time, this market will resolve to “No Pass”.
If the referendum vote is definitively canceled, with no opportunity to be rescheduled, this market will resolve immediately to “No Pass”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this referendum vote, according to a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official referendum results reported by the State of Virginia, specifically the Department of Elections (https://www.elections.virginia.gov/).
마켓 개설일: Apr 7, 2026, 6:29 PM ET
거래량
$14,778종료일
2026.04.21마켓 개설일
Apr 7, 2026, 6:29 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Pending legal challenges, Virginia is scheduled to vote in a special election on April 21, 2026, over a referendum to amend the state constitution, allowing the Virginia General Assembly to redraw its congressional districts (see: https://www.elections.virginia.gov/election-law/proposed-amendment-for-april-2026-special-election/).
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the valid “Yes” and valid “No” votes cast in this referendum.
If the margin of victory falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
For the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the “Yes” option and the “No” option in this referendum. Percentages of valid votes for each option will be determined by dividing the total number of valid “Yes” or “No” votes by the sum of all valid votes cast in the referendum.
If the number of valid “Yes” and valid “No” votes is exactly equal, this market will resolve to “No Pass”.
If the referendum vote is postponed prior to November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will remain open until the referendum vote occurs and resolve based on the results of that vote. If this referendum vote is postponed after November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or, for any other reason, the referendum vote does not take place by that time, this market will resolve to “No Pass”.
If the referendum vote is definitively canceled, with no opportunity to be rescheduled, this market will resolve immediately to “No Pass”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this referendum vote, according to a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official referendum results reported by the State of Virginia, specifically the Department of Elections (https://www.elections.virginia.gov/).Ahead of the April 21 special election, recent polls including Quantus Insights (51% Yes, 47% No) and State Navigate (50% Yes, 45% No, April 10-13) indicate slim support for the constitutional amendment permitting the General Assembly temporary authority to redraw congressional districts ahead of 2026 midterms, driving trader consensus toward narrow passage margins of 3-6% (26.5%) and 6-9% (24.0%). Surging early voting nearing 1 million ballots—strong in both Republican districts like CD-1 and CD-5 and Northern Virginia Democratic areas—coupled with GOP rural rallies featuring Speaker Mike Johnson and final Democratic pushes from national allies, underscores high mobilization amid enthusiasm gaps. Special election turnout uncertainties and regional divides maintain the tight race, with Election Day potentially decisive.
Pending legal challenges, Virginia is scheduled to vote in a special election on April 21, 2026, over a referendum to amend the state constitution, allowing the Virginia General Assembly to redraw its congressional districts (see: https://www.elections.virginia.gov/election-law/proposed-amendment-for-april-2026-special-election/).
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the valid “Yes” and valid “No” votes cast in this referendum.
If the margin of victory falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
For the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the “Yes” option and the “No” option in this referendum. Percentages of valid votes for each option will be determined by dividing the total number of valid “Yes” or “No” votes by the sum of all valid votes cast in the referendum.
If the number of valid “Yes” and valid “No” votes is exactly equal, this market will resolve to “No Pass”.
If the referendum vote is postponed prior to November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will remain open until the referendum vote occurs and resolve based on the results of that vote. If this referendum vote is postponed after November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or, for any other reason, the referendum vote does not take place by that time, this market will resolve to “No Pass”.
If the referendum vote is definitively canceled, with no opportunity to be rescheduled, this market will resolve immediately to “No Pass”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this referendum vote, according to a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official referendum results reported by the State of Virginia, specifically the Department of Elections (https://www.elections.virginia.gov/).
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the valid “Yes” and valid “No” votes cast in this referendum.
If the margin of victory falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
For the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the “Yes” option and the “No” option in this referendum. Percentages of valid votes for each option will be determined by dividing the total number of valid “Yes” or “No” votes by the sum of all valid votes cast in the referendum.
If the number of valid “Yes” and valid “No” votes is exactly equal, this market will resolve to “No Pass”.
If the referendum vote is postponed prior to November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will remain open until the referendum vote occurs and resolve based on the results of that vote. If this referendum vote is postponed after November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or, for any other reason, the referendum vote does not take place by that time, this market will resolve to “No Pass”.
If the referendum vote is definitively canceled, with no opportunity to be rescheduled, this market will resolve immediately to “No Pass”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this referendum vote, according to a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official referendum results reported by the State of Virginia, specifically the Department of Elections (https://www.elections.virginia.gov/).
거래량
$14,778종료일
2026.04.21마켓 개설일
Apr 7, 2026, 6:29 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Ahead of the April 21 special election, recent polls including Quantus Insights (51% Yes, 47% No) and State Navigate (50% Yes, 45% No, April 10-13) indicate slim support for the constitutional amendment permitting the General Assembly temporary authority to redraw congressional districts ahead of 2026 midterms, driving trader consensus toward narrow passage margins of 3-6% (26.5%) and 6-9% (24.0%). Surging early voting nearing 1 million ballots—strong in both Republican districts like CD-1 and CD-5 and Northern Virginia Democratic areas—coupled with GOP rural rallies featuring Speaker Mike Johnson and final Democratic pushes from national allies, underscores high mobilization amid enthusiasm gaps. Special election turnout uncertainties and regional divides maintain the tight race, with Election Day potentially decisive.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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