Name: US forces in Venezuela by...?
Start: 2025-09-06T21:07:22.606Z
End: 2026-03-31T00:00:00.000Z

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This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Venezuela at any point between September 6, 2025, and September 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET.

Military special operation forces will qualify, however intelligence operatives will not count. 

US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Venezuela to qualify. Entering Venezuela's maritime or aerial territory will not count.

Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Venezuela for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Venezuela at any point between September 6, 2025, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET.

Military special operation forces will qualify, however intelligence operatives will not count. 

US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Venezuela to qualify. Entering Venezuela's maritime or aerial territory will not count.

Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Venezuela for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

December 31

September 30

This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Venezuela at any point between September 30, 2025, and October 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET.

Military special operation forces will qualify, however intelligence operatives will not count. 

US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Venezuela to qualify. Entering Venezuela's maritime or aerial territory will not count.

Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Venezuela for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

October 31

This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Venezuela at any point between October 27, 2025, and November 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET.

Military special operation forces will qualify, however intelligence operatives will not count. 

US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Venezuela to qualify. Entering Venezuela's maritime or aerial territory will not count.

Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Venezuela for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

November 30

This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Venezuela at any point between this market's creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.

Military special operation forces will qualify; however, intelligence operatives will not count. 

US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Venezuela to qualify. Entering Venezuela's maritime or aerial territory will not count.

Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Venezuela for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

January 31

March 31

베네수엘라 주둔 미군

US forces in Venezuela by...?

There are no tweets provided for analysis at this time. Please provide relevant social media content to generate a summary and title.

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Market News Update

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Market Update Pending

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No Data Available

No significant events or updates have been reported in the provided data. The lack of information suggests a period of stability or absence of major news impacting the market at this time.

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Market Update Lacking

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Market Event Summary

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The White House has ordered U.S. forces to focus almost exclusively on enforcing a maritime quarantine of Venezuelan oil for the next two months, escalating tensions with Caracas through a blockade and pursuit of oil tankers. Meanwhile, Venezuela's parliament passed a law criminalizing support for the U.S. blockade, and Russia has condemned the U.S. actions at the United Nations.

US Blockades Venezuela Oil

US COAST GUARD LACKS FORCES TO SEIZE VENEZUELA-LINKED TANKER FOR NOW

The U.S. Coast Guard is waiting for additional forces to arrive before potentially attempting to board and seize a Venezuela-linked oil tanker it has been pursuing since Sunday, a U.S. official and a source

BREAKING; US Coast Guard Awaits Elite Boarding Teams to Seize Defiant Venezuela-Linked Tanker Bella 1

The U.S. Coast Guard is not yet able to seize the Venezuela-linked oil tanker Bella 1 because it lacks nearby specialized boarding forces. 

The ship has refused boarding, https://t.co/D8Cuj4pcTG

US Official: US  has ordered its forces to focus almost exclusively on enforcing the quarantine of Venezuela and sanctioned oil for at least the next two months.

While military options still exist, the focus is on first using economic pressure by enforcing sanctions to achieve

U.S. moves more troops and equipment into the Caribbean. Trump escalates tensions with Maduro, the Venezuelan leader. Venezuela votes to criminalize oil tank seizures. Trump, who you MAGA idiots call the “Peace President,” will get us in a war. 😡 https://t.co/TAqnA1l9U8

🚨🇷🇺🇺🇸🇻🇪 BREAKING: Russia has CONDEMNED the US 'blockade' of Venezuela at the United Nations.

"We firmly condemn the seizure by US troops of petroleum tankers and the effective imposition of a blockade on Venezuela," Russia’s UN Representative Vassily Nebenzia stated.

Follow: https://t.co/FLQdBkM5Hu

US Coast Guard lacks forces to seize Venezuela-linked tanker for now

The Panamanian-flagged ship prevented the Coast Guard from boarding, claiming that they had no jurisdiction there. The Coast Guard stated that it lacked the personnel to force the boarding. In reality, they are https://t.co/41WO43cwy6

Exclusive: The US Coast Guard is waiting for additional forces to arrive before potentially attempting to board and seize a Venezuela-linked oil tanker it's been pursuing since December 21, a US official and a source familiar with the matter told Reuters https://t.co/fRqvAt7G8v

US military moves additional special-ops aircraft, troops into Caribbean as Trump mounts pressure on Venezuela’s Maduro https://t.co/QWBDcJZb7y https://t.co/yVf0mmYHaF

A sanctioned oil tanker pursued by US forces turned away from Venezuela and retreated out into the Atlantic Ocean, according to people familiar with the matter, as the Trump administration continues a blockade piling pressure on Caracas. https://t.co/UdLeQcNExR

BREAKING: Russia Backs Venezuela | US Deploys Special Operations Troops https://t.co/ayPZFvxCC3

Exclusive: US Coast Guard lacks forces to seize Venezuela-linked tanker for now, sources say https://t.co/z2ceZPGDes

White House orders US forces to focus on 'quarantine' of Venezuelan oil for next two months https://t.co/zpwVkqW1yl

US troops given 2-month plan: focus on Venezuela 'QUARANTINE'

American official tells Reuters 'military options still exist'

BUT 'focus to 1st use economic pressure to reach outcome WH looking for' https://t.co/jW0Qjk8HIb https://t.co/FKl7dqe78g

US Moves Additional Troops and Special Operations Aircraft to the Caribbean as It Escalates Against Venezuela 
#Venezuela #Caribbean 
https://t.co/kVqHaUcmcf

The White House has ordered commanders in the Caribbean to focus for the next two months on quarantining #Venezuela oil, a source familiar with the matter tells @hlowenkron.

US forces are focused nearly exclusively on the blockade, rather than military options, the source said. https://t.co/dVkcyyac5k

White House orders US forces to focus on 'quarantine' of Venezuelan oil for next two months - https://t.co/CaRwcFTeob

The White House has ordered US military forces to focus almost exclusively on enforcing the "quarantine" of Venezuela, an American official tells Reuters.
 https://t.co/stADTk6aOp

Reuters - US Coast Guard waiting for additional forces to arrive before potentially attempting to board and seize a Venezuela-linked oil tanker it's been pursuing since December 21. https://t.co/stspu6W36O
 https://t.co/iVraslUA85

Reuters: 

The White House has ordered US forces to focus “almost exclusively” on enforcing a maritime blockade of Venezuela. https://t.co/ra4cdfVRkM

On Dec. 23, 2025, #Venezuela's parliament passed a law imposing lengthy prison terms on national citizens who support the #US oil tanker blockade—called #piracy by #Caracas. The legislation was enacted shortly after US forces seized a second Venezuelan crude-carrying tanker. https://t.co/MFtkyAlmwv

There are no tweets provided for analysis at this time. Without content to summarize, no key events or sentiments can be reported.

No significant events or updates have been reported in the provided data. The lack of information suggests a period of stability or minimal activity influencing the current context.

Tensions between the US and Venezuela have intensified as President Trump orders military actions, including a blockade of oil tankers and lethal strikes on vessels, prompting Venezuelan President Maduro to prepare for potential conflict and seek regional alliances with Colombia and support from China. Meanwhile, Brazilian President Lula offers to mediate to avoid armed conflict, as US military presence grows in the Caribbean Sea and Maduro warns of shutting down oil wells in response to the blockade.

US-Venezuela Conflict Escalates

The US war on Venezuela is as unpopular in Venezuela as it is in the US

An overwhelming majority of Venezuelans oppose US military intervention in their country and US sanctions, according to independent polling firm Datanalysis

More proof the war’s a Florida Gusano project https://t.co/JWsMcYUVFa

18/12/2025 - NOTÍCIA INTERNACIONAL!

US–Venezuela Conflict LIVE: "Trump Launches Lethal Action Against Drug Smuggling Vessel "-WION 

Conflito EUA–Venezuela AO VIVO: "Trump lança ação letal contra embarcação de contrabando de drogas" - WION

https://t.co/lDulY1oaxQ

BREAKING - Lula says open to mediate between US, Venezuela to 'avoid armed conflict'

https://t.co/SIGFg3n9nl

🚨BREAKING 🇻🇪🇨🇴🇺🇸

Maduro urges Colombia to join forces with Venezuela in a united defense against rising US pressure. Tensions in the region are heating up! https://t.co/qy7t9Ri3wG

🔴US show of force continues near Venezuela 

2x EA-18G Growler and 3x F/A-18E fighters fly over the Caribbean Sea https://t.co/Z9j2ualm1U

Venezuela Prepares for Possible Clash with US, Maduro Warns of Imminent Conflict

#venezuela #us #cnnews #centristnation https://t.co/Q02W4bXNk9

Advice from intelligence analyst @DanielBlancoPaz to produce diligent reports:

▪️ Stick to the facts
▪️ Keep up with the domestic context
▪️ Human contacts always beat open sources

More essentials for analysing the US–Venezuela conflict👇 https://t.co/KM7AVuAaVY

🇻🇪 President Nicolas Maduro called on the Colombian military to come to Venezuela's aid in the event of a potential conflict with the United States, if necessary.

See the latest updates with us: @visionergeo https://t.co/LmXJu3xq6e

VIDEO | The US military has carried out another fatal strike in international waters, killing four people in the eastern Pacific, as Washington intensifies its controversial military campaign linked to Venezuela. US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said US forces conducted a https://t.co/EGrvRaueYr

NEW From @nytimes: US gunboat diplomacy — Trump's order to do a blockade of some oil tankers by Venezuela surprised the Pentagon. Maduro orders the navy to escort ships, risking a conflict on the high seas. Trump says he aims to seize the country's oil and other assets. https://t.co/yLhjMyothO

Insightful look beyond the rhetoric and clickbait on #Venezuela’s military, by ⁦@jpolga⁩, who concludes that the FANB “retains enough asymmetric capacity to make any foreign intervention prolonged, costly, and politically fraught.” https://t.co/3XWKUwfYqp

BREAKING🇻🇪❌🇺🇸🔥 Venezuela says, Crude Oil and Mineral exports will continue despite US blockade attempts in Caribbean Sea with Bolivarian Security forces. 

🇻🇪🇨🇳 China will boost govt revenue through Venezuelan oil and Mineral revenue to combat American invasion like Iran. https://t.co/ro8GhwzyYv

"Trump, don't wait for oil - or take it by force," - Maduro

Venezuela is preparing to shut down oil wells due to the US blockade. And it is gathering allied forces for the country's defense.

Mobilization activities are taking place throughout the country. In essence, this is a

No significant social media activity or specific events were reported in the provided data to explain the market price movement. Further analysis of other sources may be required to understand the underlying causes.

No significant social media activity or specific events were reported in the provided data to summarize. Further information is needed to assess any impact on market movements.

There are no tweets or social media activity to summarize at this time. Please provide relevant data for analysis when available.

There are no tweets provided for analysis at this time. Please provide relevant social media content to generate a summary and title based on current events or market sentiment.

No significant events or updates have been reported in the provided data. The absence of specific information limits the ability to assess key influences on recent market movements.

No significant events or updates were reported in the analyzed data. The lack of specific information suggests a period of stability or minimal activity in the market.

There are no tweets or updates to summarize at this time. Please check back later for relevant information or updates on market activity.

No Updates Available

The United States has imposed a naval blockade on Venezuela, targeting oil tankers like the Bella 1, with the White House ordering a two-month 'quarantine' focus on Venezuelan oil to exert economic pressure. Russia and other UNSC members have condemned the US actions as a breach of international norms, while US forces await additional support to seize defiant vessels.

🚨🇷🇺🇻🇪 BREAKING: RUSSIA has CONDEMNED the U.S. BLOCKADE of VENEZUELA:

"We firmly condemn the seizure by US troops of petroleum tankers and the effective imposition of a blockade on Venezuela" - Russia at the UN https://t.co/NeAh005k0C

💬 #Zakharova: On Dec 23, the UNSC convened to discuss the increased US military presence in the Caribbean Sea &amp; a de facto naval blockade against Venezuela

❗️ Most UNSC members condemned the unilateral measures, calling them a breach of international legal norms https://t.co/nntES6GKL3

The United States has imposed a strict blockade on Venezuelan oil, deploying Coast Guard and special operations forces to seize tankers and enforce a 'quarantine' in the Caribbean. Russia has condemned these actions, backing Venezuela amidst escalating tensions and military pressure from the Trump administration.

#Caribbean #Heat Check: #Venezuela Pressure Goes Kinetic

#WSJ reports the US is moving special-ops #aircraft #troops and gear into the Caribbean as #President Trump ramps pressure on Venezuela, including seizing oil #tankers Translation: more military options on the table, more https://t.co/j7RbSJUaOq

US military moves additional special-ops aircraft, troops into Caribbean as Trump hikes pressure on Venezuela's Maduro  https://t.co/OKKRvr7LaH

President Donald Trump has confirmed a secret U.S. strike on a Venezuelan land target, while escalating military presence with additional troops and aircraft in the Caribbean. The administration's seizure of a Venezuelan oil tanker has raised alarms among Democrats, fearing heightened conflict or potential war in the region.

Trump Escalates Venezuela Conflict

🚨 Trump claims US carried out secret strike on land target in Venezuela

"And we just talked out, I don't know if you read or you saw, they [Venezuela] have a big plant or a big facility where the ships come from. Two nights ago, we knocked that out. So we hit them very hard." https://t.co/jui7b66U3G

DOCUMENTARY: VENEZUELA- DEFENDING THE REVOLUTION

As Donald Trump threatens Venezuela with military intervention, Venezuelans are organizing People’s Militias nationwide to defend their sovereignty against foreign and internal threats.

WACTH HERE : https://t.co/5zGRdm3sdp https://t.co/I7gt3gOpTs https://t.co/4nDe6kOKYp

While Pedophile Trump commits WAR CRIMES every day, MAGA Cheers, MAGA Raises a Glass, MAGA is Lost, GOP is Lost

“US Moves Additional Troops and Special Operations Aircraft to the Caribbean as It Escalates Against Venezuela” https://t.co/7h3xwP3pOy

https://t.co/LTlNcYeFh4 Democrats are sounding alarm bells after the Trump administration seized a Venezuelan oil tanker Wednesday, with lawmakers worrying that the move could lead to increased conflict or even war in the region.

Due to the absence of specific tweets or data provided for analysis, no detailed summary of social media activity or related market events can be generated. Please provide relevant tweets or information to enable a comprehensive analysis of the situation.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Venezuela at any point between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.

Military special operation forces will qualify; however, intelligence operatives will not count. 

US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Venezuela to qualify. Entering Venezuela's maritime or aerial territory will not count.

Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Venezuela for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

미군이 베네수엘라에 다시 진입하는데...?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Venezuela between November 3, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Venezuela or the United States as of September 6, 2025, 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.

미국이 2026년 12월 31일까지 베네수엘라를 침공할까요?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States formally declares war on Venezuela through an act of Congress between December 15, 2025, and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

To qualify, Congress must pass a formal declaration of war, consistent with its constitutional authority under Article I, Section 8. Authorizations for the use of military force (AUMFs), executive orders, presidential statements, or military actions do not qualify unless accompanied by a formal declaration of war enacted by Congress and signed into law.

The resolution source will be a clear consensus of credible reporting.

미국이 2026년 6월 30일까지 베네수엘라에 공식적으로 선전포고할까요?

If the listed individual visits Venezuela between market creation and March 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as the individual physically entering the terrestrial territory of Venezuela. Whether or not the individual enters Venezuelan airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.

The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

댄 케인은 2026년 3월 31일까지 베네수엘라를 방문할까요?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on Venezuelan soil is announced or credibly reported to have occurred by the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within Venezuela.

A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of Venezuela counts.

Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Venezuelan territory or cause damage.

Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.

Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify.

The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.

12월 31일까지 미국이 베네수엘라를 또다시 공격할까?

The United States has suspended operations of the Embassy in Venezuela.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces the reopening of its embassy in Venezuela or if such a reopening is otherwise confirmed by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual embassy opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe.

Any opening of a U.S. embassy in Venezuela will qualify regardless of its exact location.

Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening an embassy, such as general diplomatic statements, exploratory comments, or partial/conditional steps, will not count.

The resolution source will be official statements from the Governments of the U.S. and Venezuela; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

미국 대사관이 3월 31일까지 베네수엘라에서 다시 문을 열까요?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Venezuela at any point between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Venezuelan government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.

Claims by the Venezuelan government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

3월 31일까지 베네수엘라 쿠데타 시도?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of the United States and Russia between January 6 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between U.S. and Russian military forces. Non-violent actions, such as airspace violations, firing of warning shots (such as the June, 2021 Black Sea Confrontations between Russian forces and HMS Defender), or cyberattacks will not qualify. 

Intentional physical collisions, including aerial interceptions and naval ramming without the direct use of weaponry, such as the 2023 Black Sea incident—where a Russian Su-27 damaged a U.S. MQ-9 Reaper drone's propeller, leading to its crash— will not qualify regardless of damage. 

Military contractors will qualify only if confirmed to be operating under the direct command or coordination of the respective state’s armed forces (e.g. the Battle of Khasham would not qualify).

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

2026년 12월 31일까지 미국과 러시아의 군사 충돌이 발생할까?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Venezuelan presidential election is scheduled by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

To qualify, the election must be scheduled to be held before 2030.

This market is about whether a date for the next Venezuelan presidential election is announced within this market's timeframe. Whether the election is supposed to take place within this market's timeframe or later will have no effect on the resolution of this market.

The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the government of Venezuela; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

베네수엘라 선거가 2026년 12월 31일까지 예정되어 있습니까?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if active military personnel officially affiliated with any NATO or EU country enter Ukraine for combat-related military purposes directly pertaining to the ongoing conflict with Russia by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For military personnel to qualify toward a "Yes" resolution, they must be 1) officially acknowledged as active military by the NATO or EU entity or member state they are affiliated with; 2) be publicly acknowledged by NATO or an EU-affiliated entity to have entered Ukraine for a combat-related military purpose directly pertaining to the ongoing conflict with Russia.

For military personnel to qualify toward a "Yes" resolution they need be active duty and acknowledged as described above. Participation in a combat role is necessary for this market to resolve to "Yes" (e.g. military personnel providing training or intelligence support would not qualify toward a "Yes" resolution, however drone pilots or infantry directly attacking Russian troops, or soldiers targeting and downing missiles from Ukrainian soil would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution).

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from NATO, the EU, or member states of either entity, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

2026년 6월 30일에 우크라이나에서 나토/유럽연합 군대가 전투에 참여하고 있나요?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military engagement between the military forces of the United States of America and Iran between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A "military engagement" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between US and Iranian military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution; however, minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not. Any U.S. military kinetic strike that impacts Iranian land territory will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. 

Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on adversarial territory or cause damage.

Note: the U.S. Coast Guard is a branch of the U.S. Armed Forces; the Iranian Law Enforcement Command is a branch of the Iranian Armed Forces; all sub-branches of the Artesh, Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (including the Basij), and Law Enforcement Command are part of the Iranian Armed forces.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

2026년 6월 30일까지 미국과 이란의 군사 충돌이 발생할까요?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of a NATO country and Russia between January 2, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between NATO and Russian military forces. Non-violent actions, such as airspace violations, firing of warning shots (such as the June, 2021 Black Sea Confrontations between Russian forces and HMS Defender), or cyberattacks will not qualify.

Interception of missiles or other one-way attack or loitering munitions (e.g. Shahed drones) which are targeting a 3rd party other than the listed countries or their respective forces will not alone qualify. Shooting down UAVs which are not munitions (e.g. MQ-9, Orlan 10, Orion, Bayraktar TB2, etc.) will qualify.

Intentional physical collisions, including aerial interceptions and naval ramming without the direct use of weaponry, such as the 2023 Black Sea incident—where a Russian Su-27 damaged a U.S. MQ-9 Reaper drone's propeller, leading to its crash— will not qualify regardless of damage.

Military contractors will qualify only if confirmed to be operating under the direct command or coordination of the respective state’s armed forces (e.g. the Battle of Khasham would not qualify).

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

2026년 12월 31일까지 나토와 러시아의 군사 충돌이 발생할까요?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is widely and credibly confirmed that the operation to capture Nicolás Maduro was staged or pre-arranged with Maduro (i.e., facilitated, permitted, or agreed to in advance such that Maduro’s capture was not the result of an adversarial raid) by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Statements from the U.S. government claiming that the operation was staged or pre-arranged will qualify for a "Yes" resolution. If no broad consensus has been reached by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

팩트 체크: 마두로 체포는 조작된 것인가?

This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 ET:

- Another US strike on Venezuela
- US strikes Iran
- US strike on Colombia
- US strike on Mexico
- US strike on Cuba

Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.

If no qualifying strike is confirmed by the resolution date, this market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.

The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEHUSStrike.pdf

아무 일도 일어나지 않는다: 미국 파업 편

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro is exiled to Russia by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. 

Maduro will be considered to be exiled to Russia if he is expelled from, or voluntarily leaves, Venezuela to live in freedom in Russia for an extended period. 

Announcements of Maduro's exile will not qualify; he must actually move there. 

Visits or trips to Russia will not count.

Imprisonment or detention in Russia will not count. Freedom of movement is not required for a qualifying exile, as long as Maduro is not being held as a prisoner or detainee. 

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. 

마두로, 3월 31일까지 러시아로 추방될까?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro is exiled to Qatar by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. 

Maduro will be considered to be exiled to Qatar if he is expelled from, or voluntarily leaves, Venezuela to live in freedom in Qatar for an extended period. 

Announcements of Maduro's exile will not qualify, he must actually move there. 

Visits or trips to Qatar will not count.

Imprisonment or detention in Qatar will not count. Freedom of movement is not required for a qualifying exile, as long as Maduro is not being held as a prisoner or detainee. 

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. 

마두로가 3월 31일까지 카타르로 추방될까?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States forcibly removes Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei, from power for any length of time between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The United States will be considered to have forcibly removed Khamenei from power if Khamenei is detained, captured, surrenders, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from fulfilling his duties as Supreme Leader of Iran as a direct result of actions of force, including strikes, invasions, or other operations, carried out by United States government forces.

Actions of force means the use of physical force, including but not limited to kinetic military action (e.g., missiles, bombs, gunfire), ground operations or raids, special operations, invasions, or physical arrests or detentions carried out by United States government forces. Sanctions, diplomacy, or other non-physical actions will not qualify.

United States government forces refers to any active U.S. military (including U.S. Coast Guard), law enforcement, or intelligence personnel. Contractors confirmed to be acting under the orders of the United States government will count.

Actions of force carried out by United States government forces must directly lead to Khamenei’s removal from power. United States actions which merely contribute to or assist in Khamenei’s removal by other forces or through peaceful means will not suffice.

Qualifying examples (would count): The United States’ 2003 invasion of Iraq, which removed Saddam Hussein from power, and 1989 invasion of Panama, which led to Manuel Noriega’s surrender to U.S. forces, would count. The United States 2001 invasion of Afghanistan, which largely toppled the Taliban government and removed the Taliban leadership from power, would also have counted. The 1983 U.S. invasion of Grenada, which removed the existing regime from power, would count.

Non-qualifying examples (would not count): The 2011 removal of Muammar Gaddafi from power in Libya, however, in which the United States Military took part in a NATO operation against the Libyan military, including qualifying actions of force, but Gaddafi was removed by Libyan anti-government forces rather than U.S. government forces, would not count. The 1994 U.S.-led intervention in Haiti, in which the military regime relinquished power through negotiated departure rather than being forcibly removed from power by United States government forces as defined above, would not count. The removal of Slobodan Milošević from power in Serbia, which occurred through domestic political processes rather than Milošević's removal by United States government forces, would not count.

The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the United States federal government and a consensus of credible reporting. 

미국이 3월 31일까지 하메네이를 강제로 권좌에서 물러나게 하나요?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and the United States between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and United States military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.

Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the Chinese military and the United States Coast Guard is part of the United States military.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

2027년 이전에 미중 군사 충돌이 있을까요?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iraqi soil or any official Iraqi embassy or consulate by February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact Iraqi ground territory or any official Iraqi embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iraqi soil is hit by a US missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").

Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iraqi territory or cause damage.

Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

If no qualifying strike is confirmed by the resolution date this market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.

미국이 2월 28일까지 이라크를 공격합니까?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of at least two NATO member states between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force, such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between the military forces of at least two NATO member states. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.

Note: For the purposes of this market, coast guard services or equivalent forces will be considered part of a country’s military only if they are officially designated as military forces under that country’s law or command structure; purely civilian or law-enforcement maritime agencies will not be considered military forces.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

나토 회원국들이 2027년 이전에 서로 충돌할까요?

This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that the United States initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.

Strikes within the territory controlled by the United States as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET will not be counted towards this market's resolution.

For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the US government or a consensus of credible reporting.

Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.

Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

2026년에 미국이 5개국을 타격할까요?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ukraine publicly agrees to limit the number of personnel in its armed forces by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An official pledge by Ukraine to limit the number of personnel in its armed forces will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the Russian Federation.

A qualifying agreement must include a commitment by Ukraine to limit the total number of personnel in its armed forces. This includes any specific numerical cap on the number of personnel Ukraine may have in its armed forces, or any proportional limit on Ukrainian armed forces personnel (e.g., a commitment to reduce the size of the armed forces by a percentage of its current size). Limits on the number of personnel in specific branches of the Ukrainian armed forces will not count.

Other limits on Ukrainian military powers, such as the relinquishment of long-range weapons or limits on other categories of armaments or military capabilities, that do not constrain the total number of personnel in Ukraine’s armed forces, will not qualify.

An agreement by Ukraine to limit the number of personnel in its armed forces as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not yet finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. The September 8, 1995 “Agreed Basic Principles” between Bosnia and Yugoslavia which recognized the borders and sovereignty of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and was later formalized through the Dayton Peace Agreement is an example of a qualifying agreement.

Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.

The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by Ukraine; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying agreement has been made will also qualify.

우크라이나는 2027년 이전에 군대 규모를 제한하는 데 동의했습니까?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if U.S. government personnel (including U.S. military, CIA, or any U.S. federal law enforcement agency) directly participate on the ground in an operation that results in the capture of Supreme Leader of Iran Ali Khamenei by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, “capture” means Khamenei is taken into physical custody and detained (including arrest, detention, or seizure) such that he is no longer free to leave at will, even if only temporarily. Voluntary surrender may qualify if it results in immediate detention/custody.

U.S. personnel must directly participate on the ground to qualify. Intelligence, surveillance, planning, logistics, transport, support, funding, training, or advisory roles alone will not count, even if they materially contribute to the operation. If U.S. personnel are physically present in the operational area and take direct action (e.g., raiding, detaining, securing, physically transferring custody), it will qualify. U.S. government contractors will be considered to be U.S. personnel if they are confirmed to be acting under the direction of U.S. government authorities.

The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

미국이 2027년 이전에 하메네이를 포획할까요?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Panama Canal comes under US control by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, US control means the United States assumes primary operational authority over the canal, either via diplomatic agreement, military action, or any other means.

An official announcement made by the United States and Panama that the Panama Canal will come under US control will qualify, even if the actual transfer of control is yet to occur. Only announcements of official agreements or actions (e.g. executive order, signed legislation, etc.) will count - mere posts on Social Media will not.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from the US Government and the Government of Panama, however a consensus of credible reporting confirming that the Panama Canal has come under US sovereignty will also qualify.

미국이 2027년 이전에 파나마 운하를 장악하나요?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on the soil of Cuba is announced or credibly reported to have occurred by the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country.

A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts.

Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land territory or cause damage.

Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.

Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify.

The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.

12월 31일까지 미국의 쿠바 공격?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the President of the United States, any member of the Cabinet of the United States, any member of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, or any U.S. federal agency definitively states that a man-made device or weapon exists that is responsible for, or capable of causing, Havana Syndrome or Havana Syndrome-like symptoms by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

미국, 3월 31일까지 '하바나 증후군' 유발 기기 확인했나?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Yemen soil or any official Yemen embassy or consulate by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact Yemen ground territory or any official Yemen embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Yemen soil is hit by an US missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").

Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Yemen territory or cause damage.

Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

If no qualifying strike is confirmed by the resolution date this market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.

미국이 2026년 3월 31일까지 예멘을 공격합니까?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on the soil of Colombia is announced or credibly reported to have occurred by the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country.

A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts.

Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land territory or cause damage.

Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.

Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify.

The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.

12월 31일까지 미국이 콜롬비아를 공격할까?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of the United States and Denmark between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between US and Danish military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.

Note: the United States Coast Guard is considered part of the United States military, and the Royal Danish Navy and other branches of the Danish Armed Forces are considered part of Denmark’s military.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

2027년 이전에 미국과 덴마크의 군사 충돌이 있을까요?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military engagement between the military forces of Greece and Turkey by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A "military engagement" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Greek and Turkish military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution; however, minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not. 

Missiles or drone strikes that are intercepted will not qualify, regardless of whether they land on adversarial territory or cause damage. Similarly, surface-to-air missile strikes impacting adversarial territory will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution (although surface-to-air missiles fired at an adversarial military aircraft would qualify).

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

6월 30일까지 그리스와 터키의 군사 충돌 가능성은?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of any NATO country by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by NATO member states or Russia as of May 28, 2025, will be considered the sovereign territory of those countries.

Hybrid or “grey zone” operations conducted by unmarked personnel will qualify if they are confirmed to be Russian operatives and are intended to establish de facto control over territory, as occurred in Crimea (2014) or Donbas (2014–2022).

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.

러시아가 2026년 6월 30일까지 나토 회원국을 침공할까요?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on the sovereign territory of any NATO member state or on any official embassy or consulate of a NATO member state between December 4, 2025, and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Russian military forces that impact the ground territory of a NATO member state or an official embassy/consulate of a NATO member (e.g., if a weapons depot on NATO territory is hit by a Russian missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").

Missiles or drones that are intercepted (i.e., do not impact) and surface-to-air missile launches will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether debris falls on NATO territory or causes damage.

Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes conducted directly by ground operatives, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Russian ground operatives will not qualify.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

3월 31일까지 러시아가 나토 회원국을 공격할까?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on the soil of Mexico is announced or credibly reported to have occurred by the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country.

A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts.

Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land territory or cause damage.

Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.

Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify.

The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.

미국이 12월 31일까지 멕시코를 공격할까?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement on nuclear arms control or strategic nuclear weapons limitation is reached between the United States and the Russian Federation between December 9, 2025 and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Only agreements that are publicly announced and acknowledged by both the U.S. and Russia will qualify. The agreement must pertain to nuclear arms control or limitation—such as a treaty, framework, or memorandum—addressing matters including (but not limited to) nuclear warheads, delivery systems, verification mechanisms, or strategic stability.

An extension, amendment, or replacement of the New START treaty will qualify, provided it is publicly announced as a concluded agreement by both parties within the time frame. Exploratory discussions or stated intent to extend without a finalized agreement will not qualify.

Agreements that include both the United States and Russia as named parties—whether bilateral or as part of a broader multilateral framework—will qualify, provided the agreement directly addresses nuclear arms control.

The agreement does not need to be ratified or implemented for this market to resolve "Yes"; a formal announcement of a concluded agreement is sufficient.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the U.S. government (e.g., the White House, State Department) and/or the Russian Federation (e.g., the Kremlin, Ministry of Foreign Affairs). However, a clear and overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such an agreement has been reached will also qualify.

미국-러시아 핵협상, 6월 30일까지 타결될까?

This market will resolve according to the first listed date range (ET) during which the US initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between market creation and April 4, 2026, (ET). 

If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting within 48 hours of the listed date range's end date, the respective market will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred. If no strike could be verified under the prior rule by 48 hours after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No Strike by April 4," regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.

For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a US missile, this will qualify).

Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.

Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

US forces in Venezuela by...?

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시장 상황

의견 (209)

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US forces in Venezuela by...?

시장 상황

의견

탑 홀더

포지션

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