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... 이 (가) 부른 영국 선거?

Market icon

... 이 (가) 부른 영국 선거?

$742,936 거래량

2026.06.30
Polymarket

$742,936 거래량

Polymarket

2026년 6월 30일

$17,212 거래량

7%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the date of the next UK general election is declared by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the election date be declared, not that the election actually occur within the market timeframe. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United Kingdom, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the date of the next UK general election is declared by March 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the election date be declared, not that the election actually occur within the market timeframe. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United Kingdom, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the date of the next UK general election is declared by June 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the election date be declared, not that the election actually occur within the market timeframe. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United Kingdom, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the date of the next UK general election is declared by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the election date be declared, not that the election actually occur within the market timeframe. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United Kingdom, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices just a 3% implied probability for the next UK general election being called by June 30, reflecting Prime Minister Keir Starmer's commanding parliamentary majority from Labour's 2024 landslide, which shields against immediate pressure despite widespread discontent. A January petition garnering over 1 million signatures for a snap vote sparked parliamentary debate but yielded no action, while recent polls show Labour slumping to fourth place behind even the Greens ahead of pivotal May 7 local elections—a key popularity test where Reform UK gains could intensify calls for an early ballot. An IMF downgrade of UK growth to 0.8% adds economic headwinds, but only catastrophic local losses or internal Labour revolt might shift odds meaningfully before summer.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the date of the next UK general election is declared by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the election date be declared, not that the election actually occur within the market timeframe.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United Kingdom, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
거래량
$742,936
종료일
2025.12.31
마켓 개설일
Sep 15, 2025, 11:37 AM ET
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the date of the next UK general election is declared by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the election date be declared, not that the election actually occur within the market timeframe. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United Kingdom, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the date of the next UK general election is declared by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the election date be declared, not that the election actually occur within the market timeframe. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United Kingdom, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the date of the next UK general election is declared by March 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the election date be declared, not that the election actually occur within the market timeframe. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United Kingdom, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the date of the next UK general election is declared by June 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the election date be declared, not that the election actually occur within the market timeframe. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United Kingdom, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the date of the next UK general election is declared by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the election date be declared, not that the election actually occur within the market timeframe. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United Kingdom, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices just a 3% implied probability for the next UK general election being called by June 30, reflecting Prime Minister Keir Starmer's commanding parliamentary majority from Labour's 2024 landslide, which shields against immediate pressure despite widespread discontent. A January petition garnering over 1 million signatures for a snap vote sparked parliamentary debate but yielded no action, while recent polls show Labour slumping to fourth place behind even the Greens ahead of pivotal May 7 local elections—a key popularity test where Reform UK gains could intensify calls for an early ballot. An IMF downgrade of UK growth to 0.8% adds economic headwinds, but only catastrophic local losses or internal Labour revolt might shift odds meaningfully before summer.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the date of the next UK general election is declared by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the election date be declared, not that the election actually occur within the market timeframe.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United Kingdom, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
거래량
$742,936
종료일
2025.12.31
마켓 개설일
Sep 15, 2025, 11:37 AM ET
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the date of the next UK general election is declared by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the election date be declared, not that the election actually occur within the market timeframe. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United Kingdom, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

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자주 묻는 질문

"... 이 (가) 부른 영국 선거?"은 4개의 가능한 결과가 있는 Polymarket의 예측 마켓으로, 트레이더들이 어떤 결과가 발생할지에 따라 주식을 매수 및 매도합니다. 현재 선두 결과는 7%의 "2026년 6월 30일"이며, 이어서 0%의 "3월 31일"입니다. 가격은 실시간 크라우드소싱 확률을 반영합니다. 예를 들어 7¢에 거래되는 주식은 마켓이 해당 결과에 7%의 확률을 부여함을 의미합니다. 이 확률은 트레이더들이 새로운 진전과 정보에 반응함에 따라 지속적으로 변화합니다. 정확한 결과의 주식은 마켓 정산 시 각 $1에 교환 가능합니다.

오늘 현재 "... 이 (가) 부른 영국 선거?"은 총 $742.9K의 거래량을 생성했습니다 마켓이 Jan 6, 2025에 시작된 이후. 이 수준의 거래 활동은 Polymarket 커뮤니티의 강한 참여를 반영하며 현재 확률이 깊은 참가자 풀에 의해 정보에 기반하도록 보장합니다. 이 페이지에서 실시간 가격 변동을 추적하고 모든 결과에 직접 거래할 수 있습니다.

"... 이 (가) 부른 영국 선거?"에서 거래하려면 이 페이지에 나열된 4개의 가용 결과를 탐색하세요. 각 결과에는 마켓의 내재 확률을 나타내는 현재 가격이 표시됩니다. 포지션을 잡으려면 가장 가능성이 높다고 생각하는 결과를 선택하고, 찬성이면 "Yes", 반대이면 "No"를 선택하고, 금액을 입력하고 "거래"를 클릭하세요. 마켓이 정산될 때 선택한 결과가 맞으면 "Yes" 주식은 각 $1을 지급합니다. 틀리면 $0을 지급합니다. 수익을 확정하거나 손실을 줄이고 싶다면 정산 전 언제든지 주식을 매도할 수 있습니다.

이것은 완전히 열린 마켓입니다. "... 이 (가) 부른 영국 선거?"의 현재 선두는 7%에 불과한 "2026년 6월 30일"이며, "3월 31일"이 0%로 바짝 뒤쫓고 있습니다. 강한 과반을 차지하는 결과가 없어 트레이더들은 이를 매우 불확실하게 보고 있으며, 이는 독특한 거래 기회를 제공할 수 있습니다. 이 확률은 실시간으로 업데이트되므로 이 페이지를 북마크하여 확률이 어떻게 변화하는지 지켜보세요.

"... 이 (가) 부른 영국 선거?"의 정산 규칙은 각 결과가 승자로 선언되기 위해 정확히 무엇이 일어나야 하는지를 정의합니다 — 결과를 결정하는 데 사용되는 공식 데이터 소스를 포함합니다. 이 페이지의 댓글 위 "규칙" 섹션에서 완전한 정산 기준을 검토할 수 있습니다. 거래 전 규칙을 주의 깊게 읽는 것을 권장합니다. 이 마켓이 어떻게 정산되는지를 관리하는 정확한 조건, 예외 사항, 출처를 명시하고 있습니다.