Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez’s minority government, supported by regional parties including Junts and ERC, has sustained legislative stability without major parliamentary defeats or budget failures, underpinning the 76.5 percent trader-implied probability against a snap election by the end of 2026. In late April 2026, Sánchez publicly ruled out early dissolution of the Cortes Generales and reaffirmed commitment to completing the full term ahead of the scheduled general election no later than August 2027. Recent opinion surveys continue to show the PSOE competitive or ahead, reducing any immediate incentive for an early vote despite opposition calls from the PP and isolated speculation about a moción de censura. Traders view these factors, alongside Sánchez’s record of navigating coalition pressures without triggering dissolution, as the dominant drivers of current pricing.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트예
$19,568 거래량
$19,568 거래량
2026.12.31
예
$19,568 거래량
$19,568 거래량
2026.12.31
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a snap election is called in Spain by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
The calling of a snap election requires the formal dissolution of at least one house of the Spanish Parliament or another formal scheduling, according to the rules of the jurisdiction, of an election for all members of at least one house of the Spanish Parliament prior to their scheduled election at the end of their parliamentary term.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Spain; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez’s minority government, supported by regional parties including Junts and ERC, has sustained legislative stability without major parliamentary defeats or budget failures, underpinning the 76.5 percent trader-implied probability against a snap election by the end of 2026. In late April 2026, Sánchez publicly ruled out early dissolution of the Cortes Generales and reaffirmed commitment to completing the full term ahead of the scheduled general election no later than August 2027. Recent opinion surveys continue to show the PSOE competitive or ahead, reducing any immediate incentive for an early vote despite opposition calls from the PP and isolated speculation about a moción de censura. Traders view these factors, alongside Sánchez’s record of navigating coalition pressures without triggering dissolution, as the dominant drivers of current pricing.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a snap election is called in Spain by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
The calling of a snap election requires the formal dissolution of at least one house of the Spanish Parliament or another formal scheduling, according to the rules of the jurisdiction, of an election for all members of at least one house of the Spanish Parliament prior to their scheduled election at the end of their parliamentary term.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Spain; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The calling of a snap election requires the formal dissolution of at least one house of the Spanish Parliament or another formal scheduling, according to the rules of the jurisdiction, of an election for all members of at least one house of the Spanish Parliament prior to their scheduled election at the end of their parliamentary term.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Spain; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
마켓 개설일: Mar 5, 2026, 5:03 PM ET
거래량
$19,568종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Mar 5, 2026, 5:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if a snap election is called in Spain by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
The calling of a snap election requires the formal dissolution of at least one house of the Spanish Parliament or another formal scheduling, according to the rules of the jurisdiction, of an election for all members of at least one house of the Spanish Parliament prior to their scheduled election at the end of their parliamentary term.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Spain; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez’s minority government, supported by regional parties including Junts and ERC, has sustained legislative stability without major parliamentary defeats or budget failures, underpinning the 76.5 percent trader-implied probability against a snap election by the end of 2026. In late April 2026, Sánchez publicly ruled out early dissolution of the Cortes Generales and reaffirmed commitment to completing the full term ahead of the scheduled general election no later than August 2027. Recent opinion surveys continue to show the PSOE competitive or ahead, reducing any immediate incentive for an early vote despite opposition calls from the PP and isolated speculation about a moción de censura. Traders view these factors, alongside Sánchez’s record of navigating coalition pressures without triggering dissolution, as the dominant drivers of current pricing.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a snap election is called in Spain by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
The calling of a snap election requires the formal dissolution of at least one house of the Spanish Parliament or another formal scheduling, according to the rules of the jurisdiction, of an election for all members of at least one house of the Spanish Parliament prior to their scheduled election at the end of their parliamentary term.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Spain; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The calling of a snap election requires the formal dissolution of at least one house of the Spanish Parliament or another formal scheduling, according to the rules of the jurisdiction, of an election for all members of at least one house of the Spanish Parliament prior to their scheduled election at the end of their parliamentary term.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Spain; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
거래량
$19,568종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Mar 5, 2026, 5:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez’s minority government, supported by regional parties including Junts and ERC, has sustained legislative stability without major parliamentary defeats or budget failures, underpinning the 76.5 percent trader-implied probability against a snap election by the end of 2026. In late April 2026, Sánchez publicly ruled out early dissolution of the Cortes Generales and reaffirmed commitment to completing the full term ahead of the scheduled general election no later than August 2027. Recent opinion surveys continue to show the PSOE competitive or ahead, reducing any immediate incentive for an early vote despite opposition calls from the PP and isolated speculation about a moción de censura. Traders view these factors, alongside Sánchez’s record of navigating coalition pressures without triggering dissolution, as the dominant drivers of current pricing.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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