Trader consensus reflects an 81% implied probability that SCOTUS will bar states from counting mail-in ballots received after Election Day, driven by conservative justices' skepticism during March 23 oral arguments in Watson v. Republican National Committee. The Court probed whether federal Election Day statutes—2 U.S.C. § 7 for congressional races and 3 U.S.C. § 1 for presidential—preempt Mississippi's grace period allowing postmarked-by-Election-Day ballots to arrive up to five business days later. This majority-leaning view, echoed in SCOTUSblog analysis, could upend similar laws in over a dozen states before November midterms, prompting election officials' recent warnings of administrative chaos. A ruling is due by early July.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트선거일 이후에 우편 투표지를 집계하는 SCOTUS 막대가 있습니까?
선거일 이후에 우편 투표지를 집계하는 SCOTUS 막대가 있습니까?
예
$35,427 거래량
$35,427 거래량
2026.08.01
예
$35,427 거래량
$35,427 거래량
2026.08.01
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States Supreme Court, in Watson v. Republican National Committee, rules that the federal election-day statutes preempt a state law that allows ballots cast by federal Election Day to be received and counted after election day, by August 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve based on the Supreme Court’s decision in this case. Other related cases or legislation will not affect resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Supreme Court; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus reflects an 81% implied probability that SCOTUS will bar states from counting mail-in ballots received after Election Day, driven by conservative justices' skepticism during March 23 oral arguments in Watson v. Republican National Committee. The Court probed whether federal Election Day statutes—2 U.S.C. § 7 for congressional races and 3 U.S.C. § 1 for presidential—preempt Mississippi's grace period allowing postmarked-by-Election-Day ballots to arrive up to five business days later. This majority-leaning view, echoed in SCOTUSblog analysis, could upend similar laws in over a dozen states before November midterms, prompting election officials' recent warnings of administrative chaos. A ruling is due by early July.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States Supreme Court, in Watson v. Republican National Committee, rules that the federal election-day statutes preempt a state law that allows ballots cast by federal Election Day to be received and counted after election day, by August 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve based on the Supreme Court’s decision in this case. Other related cases or legislation will not affect resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Supreme Court; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve based on the Supreme Court’s decision in this case. Other related cases or legislation will not affect resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Supreme Court; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
마켓 개설일: Mar 24, 2026, 7:31 PM ET
거래량
$35,427종료일
2026.08.01마켓 개설일
Mar 24, 2026, 7:31 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States Supreme Court, in Watson v. Republican National Committee, rules that the federal election-day statutes preempt a state law that allows ballots cast by federal Election Day to be received and counted after election day, by August 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve based on the Supreme Court’s decision in this case. Other related cases or legislation will not affect resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Supreme Court; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus reflects an 81% implied probability that SCOTUS will bar states from counting mail-in ballots received after Election Day, driven by conservative justices' skepticism during March 23 oral arguments in Watson v. Republican National Committee. The Court probed whether federal Election Day statutes—2 U.S.C. § 7 for congressional races and 3 U.S.C. § 1 for presidential—preempt Mississippi's grace period allowing postmarked-by-Election-Day ballots to arrive up to five business days later. This majority-leaning view, echoed in SCOTUSblog analysis, could upend similar laws in over a dozen states before November midterms, prompting election officials' recent warnings of administrative chaos. A ruling is due by early July.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States Supreme Court, in Watson v. Republican National Committee, rules that the federal election-day statutes preempt a state law that allows ballots cast by federal Election Day to be received and counted after election day, by August 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve based on the Supreme Court’s decision in this case. Other related cases or legislation will not affect resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Supreme Court; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve based on the Supreme Court’s decision in this case. Other related cases or legislation will not affect resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Supreme Court; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
거래량
$35,427종료일
2026.08.01마켓 개설일
Mar 24, 2026, 7:31 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus reflects an 81% implied probability that SCOTUS will bar states from counting mail-in ballots received after Election Day, driven by conservative justices' skepticism during March 23 oral arguments in Watson v. Republican National Committee. The Court probed whether federal Election Day statutes—2 U.S.C. § 7 for congressional races and 3 U.S.C. § 1 for presidential—preempt Mississippi's grace period allowing postmarked-by-Election-Day ballots to arrive up to five business days later. This majority-leaning view, echoed in SCOTUSblog analysis, could upend similar laws in over a dozen states before November midterms, prompting election officials' recent warnings of administrative chaos. A ruling is due by early July.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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