Recent observational data from agencies including NOAA and Copernicus place the May 2026 global surface temperature anomaly at levels consistent with the 1.10–1.14°C bin above the 1850–1900 baseline, driving the 97.7% market-implied probability. Early 2026 months ranked among the warmest on record, with April at 1.12°C per NOAA and similar values from ERA5 analyses, reflecting persistent elevated baseline temperatures amid weak La Niña conditions. Model consensus and historical analogs support limited deviation in May, though final agency datasets could shift resolution if revisions exceed typical uncertainty ranges of 0.05–0.10°C.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트May 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
May 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
1.10–1.14ºC 97.6%
<1.10ºC 1.9%
1.15–1.19ºC <1%
1.20–1.24ºC <1%
$194,266 거래량
$194,266 거래량
2026.06.10
<1.10ºC
2%
1.10–1.14ºC
98%
1.15–1.19ºC
1%
1.20–1.24ºC
<1%
1.25–1.29ºC
<1%
>1.29ºC
<1%
1.10–1.14ºC 97.6%
<1.10ºC 1.9%
1.15–1.19ºC <1%
1.20–1.24ºC <1%
$194,266 거래량
$194,266 거래량
2026.06.10
<1.10ºC
$61,470 거래량
2%
1.10–1.14ºC
$24,537 거래량
98%
1.15–1.19ºC
$37,708 거래량
1%
1.20–1.24ºC
$23,083 거래량
<1%
1.25–1.29ºC
$20,982 거래량
<1%
>1.29ºC
$26,485 거래량
<1%
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for May 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for May 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by July 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Recent observational data from agencies including NOAA and Copernicus place the May 2026 global surface temperature anomaly at levels consistent with the 1.10–1.14°C bin above the 1850–1900 baseline, driving the 97.7% market-implied probability. Early 2026 months ranked among the warmest on record, with April at 1.12°C per NOAA and similar values from ERA5 analyses, reflecting persistent elevated baseline temperatures amid weak La Niña conditions. Model consensus and historical analogs support limited deviation in May, though final agency datasets could shift resolution if revisions exceed typical uncertainty ranges of 0.05–0.10°C.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for May 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for May 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by July 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for May 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for May 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by July 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
마켓 개설일: Apr 27, 2026, 4:35 PM ET
거래량
$194,266종료일
2026.06.10마켓 개설일
Apr 27, 2026, 4:35 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for May 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for May 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by July 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Recent observational data from agencies including NOAA and Copernicus place the May 2026 global surface temperature anomaly at levels consistent with the 1.10–1.14°C bin above the 1850–1900 baseline, driving the 97.7% market-implied probability. Early 2026 months ranked among the warmest on record, with April at 1.12°C per NOAA and similar values from ERA5 analyses, reflecting persistent elevated baseline temperatures amid weak La Niña conditions. Model consensus and historical analogs support limited deviation in May, though final agency datasets could shift resolution if revisions exceed typical uncertainty ranges of 0.05–0.10°C.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for May 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for May 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by July 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for May 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for May 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by July 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
거래량
$194,266종료일
2026.06.10마켓 개설일
Apr 27, 2026, 4:35 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent observational data from agencies including NOAA and Copernicus place the May 2026 global surface temperature anomaly at levels consistent with the 1.10–1.14°C bin above the 1850–1900 baseline, driving the 97.7% market-implied probability. Early 2026 months ranked among the warmest on record, with April at 1.12°C per NOAA and similar values from ERA5 analyses, reflecting persistent elevated baseline temperatures amid weak La Niña conditions. Model consensus and historical analogs support limited deviation in May, though final agency datasets could shift resolution if revisions exceed typical uncertainty ranges of 0.05–0.10°C.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
외부 링크에 주의하세요.
외부 링크에 주의하세요.
자주 묻는 질문