Trader consensus reflects near-certainty at 99.2% against the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) declaring independence from Iraq by April 30, driven by the complete absence of preparatory announcements, referendums, or political mobilization in recent weeks amid ongoing regional tensions. KRG leaders, including President Nechirvan Barzani, have emphasized neutrality in Iran-Iraq conflicts and Peshmerga unification efforts backed by the US-led coalition, with a September deadline, while prioritizing economic ties and federal budget disputes with Baghdad. Historical backlash from the 2017 independence referendum—resulting in territorial losses like Kirkuk—reinforces structural barriers from Iraq, Turkey, and Iran. Only an unforeseen escalation, such as major territorial gains or a sudden leadership shift, could prompt a late reversal before the deadline.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트예
$44,048 거래량
$44,048 거래량
2026.04.30
예
$44,048 거래량
$44,048 거래량
2026.04.30
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG), or a ruling party, coalition, or executive official of the KRG, formally declares the creation of a new independent state separate from Iraq and asserts governing authority over a specified territory within Iraq by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying public announcement alone is sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether governing authority is actually established, maintained, or recognized.
A declaration must include a clear public statement by the organization or its leadership announcing the establishment of an independent political entity separate from Iraq and claiming governmental authority over an identified geographic area previously under Iraqi governance.
The claimed territory does not need to be precisely defined but must be at least partially specified. A majority of the claimed territory must lie within the internationally recognized borders of Iraq as they existed at the time of this market’s creation.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus reflects near-certainty at 99.2% against the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) declaring independence from Iraq by April 30, driven by the complete absence of preparatory announcements, referendums, or political mobilization in recent weeks amid ongoing regional tensions. KRG leaders, including President Nechirvan Barzani, have emphasized neutrality in Iran-Iraq conflicts and Peshmerga unification efforts backed by the US-led coalition, with a September deadline, while prioritizing economic ties and federal budget disputes with Baghdad. Historical backlash from the 2017 independence referendum—resulting in territorial losses like Kirkuk—reinforces structural barriers from Iraq, Turkey, and Iran. Only an unforeseen escalation, such as major territorial gains or a sudden leadership shift, could prompt a late reversal before the deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG), or a ruling party, coalition, or executive official of the KRG, formally declares the creation of a new independent state separate from Iraq and asserts governing authority over a specified territory within Iraq by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying public announcement alone is sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether governing authority is actually established, maintained, or recognized.
A declaration must include a clear public statement by the organization or its leadership announcing the establishment of an independent political entity separate from Iraq and claiming governmental authority over an identified geographic area previously under Iraqi governance.
The claimed territory does not need to be precisely defined but must be at least partially specified. A majority of the claimed territory must lie within the internationally recognized borders of Iraq as they existed at the time of this market’s creation.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A qualifying public announcement alone is sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether governing authority is actually established, maintained, or recognized.
A declaration must include a clear public statement by the organization or its leadership announcing the establishment of an independent political entity separate from Iraq and claiming governmental authority over an identified geographic area previously under Iraqi governance.
The claimed territory does not need to be precisely defined but must be at least partially specified. A majority of the claimed territory must lie within the internationally recognized borders of Iraq as they existed at the time of this market’s creation.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
마켓 개설일: Mar 6, 2026, 1:23 PM ET
거래량
$44,048종료일
2026.04.30마켓 개설일
Mar 6, 2026, 1:23 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG), or a ruling party, coalition, or executive official of the KRG, formally declares the creation of a new independent state separate from Iraq and asserts governing authority over a specified territory within Iraq by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying public announcement alone is sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether governing authority is actually established, maintained, or recognized.
A declaration must include a clear public statement by the organization or its leadership announcing the establishment of an independent political entity separate from Iraq and claiming governmental authority over an identified geographic area previously under Iraqi governance.
The claimed territory does not need to be precisely defined but must be at least partially specified. A majority of the claimed territory must lie within the internationally recognized borders of Iraq as they existed at the time of this market’s creation.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus reflects near-certainty at 99.2% against the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) declaring independence from Iraq by April 30, driven by the complete absence of preparatory announcements, referendums, or political mobilization in recent weeks amid ongoing regional tensions. KRG leaders, including President Nechirvan Barzani, have emphasized neutrality in Iran-Iraq conflicts and Peshmerga unification efforts backed by the US-led coalition, with a September deadline, while prioritizing economic ties and federal budget disputes with Baghdad. Historical backlash from the 2017 independence referendum—resulting in territorial losses like Kirkuk—reinforces structural barriers from Iraq, Turkey, and Iran. Only an unforeseen escalation, such as major territorial gains or a sudden leadership shift, could prompt a late reversal before the deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG), or a ruling party, coalition, or executive official of the KRG, formally declares the creation of a new independent state separate from Iraq and asserts governing authority over a specified territory within Iraq by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying public announcement alone is sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether governing authority is actually established, maintained, or recognized.
A declaration must include a clear public statement by the organization or its leadership announcing the establishment of an independent political entity separate from Iraq and claiming governmental authority over an identified geographic area previously under Iraqi governance.
The claimed territory does not need to be precisely defined but must be at least partially specified. A majority of the claimed territory must lie within the internationally recognized borders of Iraq as they existed at the time of this market’s creation.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A qualifying public announcement alone is sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether governing authority is actually established, maintained, or recognized.
A declaration must include a clear public statement by the organization or its leadership announcing the establishment of an independent political entity separate from Iraq and claiming governmental authority over an identified geographic area previously under Iraqi governance.
The claimed territory does not need to be precisely defined but must be at least partially specified. A majority of the claimed territory must lie within the internationally recognized borders of Iraq as they existed at the time of this market’s creation.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
거래량
$44,048종료일
2026.04.30마켓 개설일
Mar 6, 2026, 1:23 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus reflects near-certainty at 99.2% against the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) declaring independence from Iraq by April 30, driven by the complete absence of preparatory announcements, referendums, or political mobilization in recent weeks amid ongoing regional tensions. KRG leaders, including President Nechirvan Barzani, have emphasized neutrality in Iran-Iraq conflicts and Peshmerga unification efforts backed by the US-led coalition, with a September deadline, while prioritizing economic ties and federal budget disputes with Baghdad. Historical backlash from the 2017 independence referendum—resulting in territorial losses like Kirkuk—reinforces structural barriers from Iraq, Turkey, and Iran. Only an unforeseen escalation, such as major territorial gains or a sudden leadership shift, could prompt a late reversal before the deadline.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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