Incumbent Republican Roger Marshall’s reelection bid in a state with a strong Republican lean shapes trader consensus around an 80.5% probability for the Republican outcome. Marshall, first elected in 2020 with 53.2% of the vote, faces a crowded Democratic primary field of lesser-known candidates including Christy Davis, Adam Hamilton, and Jason Hart ahead of the August 4 primaries. Kansas carries an R+8 partisan voting index and Cook Political Report’s Solid Republican rating, reflecting limited crossover support and the difficulty Democratic challengers have faced in recent Senate contests there. No high-profile alternative such as term-limited Governor Laura Kelly has entered the race, reinforcing the market’s current positioning ahead of the November 2026 general election.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트$28,192 거래량
$28,192 거래량
2026.11.03
공화당
81%
민주당
19%
$28,192 거래량
$28,192 거래량
2026.11.03
공화당
$16,936 거래량
81%
민주당
$11,256 거래량
19%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Kansas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Republican Roger Marshall’s reelection bid in a state with a strong Republican lean shapes trader consensus around an 80.5% probability for the Republican outcome. Marshall, first elected in 2020 with 53.2% of the vote, faces a crowded Democratic primary field of lesser-known candidates including Christy Davis, Adam Hamilton, and Jason Hart ahead of the August 4 primaries. Kansas carries an R+8 partisan voting index and Cook Political Report’s Solid Republican rating, reflecting limited crossover support and the difficulty Democratic challengers have faced in recent Senate contests there. No high-profile alternative such as term-limited Governor Laura Kelly has entered the race, reinforcing the market’s current positioning ahead of the November 2026 general election.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Kansas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
마켓 개설일: Oct 13, 2025, 5:28 PM ET
거래량
$28,192종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Oct 13, 2025, 5:28 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Kansas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Republican Roger Marshall’s reelection bid in a state with a strong Republican lean shapes trader consensus around an 80.5% probability for the Republican outcome. Marshall, first elected in 2020 with 53.2% of the vote, faces a crowded Democratic primary field of lesser-known candidates including Christy Davis, Adam Hamilton, and Jason Hart ahead of the August 4 primaries. Kansas carries an R+8 partisan voting index and Cook Political Report’s Solid Republican rating, reflecting limited crossover support and the difficulty Democratic challengers have faced in recent Senate contests there. No high-profile alternative such as term-limited Governor Laura Kelly has entered the race, reinforcing the market’s current positioning ahead of the November 2026 general election.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Kansas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
거래량
$28,192종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Oct 13, 2025, 5:28 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Roger Marshall’s reelection bid in a state with a strong Republican lean shapes trader consensus around an 80.5% probability for the Republican outcome. Marshall, first elected in 2020 with 53.2% of the vote, faces a crowded Democratic primary field of lesser-known candidates including Christy Davis, Adam Hamilton, and Jason Hart ahead of the August 4 primaries. Kansas carries an R+8 partisan voting index and Cook Political Report’s Solid Republican rating, reflecting limited crossover support and the difficulty Democratic challengers have faced in recent Senate contests there. No high-profile alternative such as term-limited Governor Laura Kelly has entered the race, reinforcing the market’s current positioning ahead of the November 2026 general election.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
외부 링크에 주의하세요.
외부 링크에 주의하세요.
자주 묻는 질문