Recent US-Iran ceasefire talks in Pakistan, initiated April 7 and brokered by Islamabad, alongside IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi's April 15 call for verification checks in any peace deal, underpin trader consensus at 90.5% against Iran detonating a nuclear weapon before 2027. June 2025 US-Israeli strikes damaged key facilities at Natanz, Fordow, and Esfahan, per IAEA assessments, stalling enrichment amid denied inspector access and an unverified 440.9 kg stockpile of 60% enriched uranium—short of weapons-grade. No confirmed weaponization or test has occurred, with diplomacy signaling de-escalation; late-breaking escalation, unresolved safeguards issues, or covert advances could still shift odds before year-end resolution.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트예
$527,717 거래량
$527,717 거래량
2026.12.31
예
$527,717 거래량
$527,717 거래량
2026.12.31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if credible reports from international nuclear agencies, Iran's government itself, or credible global news sources officially confirm that Iran possesses a nuclear weapon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".Recent US-Iran ceasefire talks in Pakistan, initiated April 7 and brokered by Islamabad, alongside IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi's April 15 call for verification checks in any peace deal, underpin trader consensus at 90.5% against Iran detonating a nuclear weapon before 2027. June 2025 US-Israeli strikes damaged key facilities at Natanz, Fordow, and Esfahan, per IAEA assessments, stalling enrichment amid denied inspector access and an unverified 440.9 kg stockpile of 60% enriched uranium—short of weapons-grade. No confirmed weaponization or test has occurred, with diplomacy signaling de-escalation; late-breaking escalation, unresolved safeguards issues, or covert advances could still shift odds before year-end resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if credible reports from international nuclear agencies, Iran's government itself, or credible global news sources officially confirm that Iran possesses a nuclear weapon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
마켓 개설일: Nov 13, 2025, 5:50 PM ET
거래량
$527,717종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Nov 13, 2025, 5:50 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if credible reports from international nuclear agencies, Iran's government itself, or credible global news sources officially confirm that Iran possesses a nuclear weapon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".Recent US-Iran ceasefire talks in Pakistan, initiated April 7 and brokered by Islamabad, alongside IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi's April 15 call for verification checks in any peace deal, underpin trader consensus at 90.5% against Iran detonating a nuclear weapon before 2027. June 2025 US-Israeli strikes damaged key facilities at Natanz, Fordow, and Esfahan, per IAEA assessments, stalling enrichment amid denied inspector access and an unverified 440.9 kg stockpile of 60% enriched uranium—short of weapons-grade. No confirmed weaponization or test has occurred, with diplomacy signaling de-escalation; late-breaking escalation, unresolved safeguards issues, or covert advances could still shift odds before year-end resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if credible reports from international nuclear agencies, Iran's government itself, or credible global news sources officially confirm that Iran possesses a nuclear weapon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
거래량
$527,717종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Nov 13, 2025, 5:50 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent US-Iran ceasefire talks in Pakistan, initiated April 7 and brokered by Islamabad, alongside IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi's April 15 call for verification checks in any peace deal, underpin trader consensus at 90.5% against Iran detonating a nuclear weapon before 2027. June 2025 US-Israeli strikes damaged key facilities at Natanz, Fordow, and Esfahan, per IAEA assessments, stalling enrichment amid denied inspector access and an unverified 440.9 kg stockpile of 60% enriched uranium—short of weapons-grade. No confirmed weaponization or test has occurred, with diplomacy signaling de-escalation; late-breaking escalation, unresolved safeguards issues, or covert advances could still shift odds before year-end resolution.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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