Recent U.S. and Israeli airstrikes in June 2025 and February 2026 severely damaged Iran's key enrichment facilities at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, destroying or disabling thousands of centrifuges and related infrastructure while leaving a substantial stockpile of near-weapons-grade uranium inaccessible under rubble. U.S. intelligence assessments, including March 2026 testimony from Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard, indicate Iran has not resumed uranium enrichment, and no structured nuclear weapons program is underway. Ongoing diplomatic talks, including Geneva negotiations and U.S. proposals for facility dismantlement and material transfer, reflect sustained international pressure and verification challenges reported by the IAEA. These verified setbacks and containment measures underpin trader consensus reflected in the current 92.3% implied probability for no nuclear weapon before 2027.