Recent U.S. intelligence assessments as of early May 2026 confirm Iran's nuclear weapon timeline remains about one year despite extensive U.S.-Israeli airstrikes on facilities like Bushehr and Isfahan since February, anchoring trader consensus at 91.8% for "No" before 2027. IAEA reports from late February and April highlight Iran's stockpile of highly enriched uranium—enough for multiple weapons if further processed—but no evidence of active weaponization, testing, or diversion, with Tehran restricting access post-strikes and denying restart of bomb-grade enrichment. Ongoing sanctions, diplomatic stalemates on JCPOA revival, and Supreme Leader oversight reinforce low breakout risk by year-end, though policy reversals or covert advances could shift probabilities.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트예
$586,591 거래량
$586,591 거래량
예
$586,591 거래량
$586,591 거래량
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
마켓 개설일: Nov 13, 2025, 5:50 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Recent U.S. intelligence assessments as of early May 2026 confirm Iran's nuclear weapon timeline remains about one year despite extensive U.S.-Israeli airstrikes on facilities like Bushehr and Isfahan since February, anchoring trader consensus at 91.8% for "No" before 2027. IAEA reports from late February and April highlight Iran's stockpile of highly enriched uranium—enough for multiple weapons if further processed—but no evidence of active weaponization, testing, or diversion, with Tehran restricting access post-strikes and denying restart of bomb-grade enrichment. Ongoing sanctions, diplomatic stalemates on JCPOA revival, and Supreme Leader oversight reinforce low breakout risk by year-end, though policy reversals or covert advances could shift probabilities.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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