Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s current presidential term extends through 2028 under Turkey’s constitution, with the next election scheduled no later than May of that year. Traders assign an 89.5% implied probability to “No” on removal by December 31, 2026, reflecting the absence of constitutional mechanisms, parliamentary votes, or health-related transitions that would force an earlier exit. Erdoğan has publicly indicated he will leave office at term’s end and has denied pursuing constitutional amendments for an additional candidacy, while remaining active in governance and foreign policy. Recent opposition arrests and local-election setbacks have not altered his institutional control or prompted snap-election pressure within the 2026 window.