Recent escalation in Middle East geopolitical tensions has driven sharp rises in euro-area energy prices, lifting 2026 headline HICP inflation forecasts to 2.7% and intensifying upside risks to the ECB’s 2% target. Following the April 30, 2026 decision to hold the deposit facility rate at 2.00%, Governing Council communications signaled data-dependent tightening, with most economists now expecting a 25 basis point hike at the June 11 meeting to contain second-round effects. This backdrop underpins the 86.5% market-implied probability of a June increase, while the slim 12.9% odds of no change reflect residual uncertainty over growth fallout and wage dynamics. Traders will closely monitor May inflation prints and any de-escalation signals ahead of the next policy announcement.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트25 bps Increase 87%
No change 12.8%
50+ bps increase <1%
50+ bps decrease <1%
$283,988 거래량
$283,988 거래량
2026.06.11
50+ bps decrease
<1%
25 bps decrease
<1%
No change
13%
25 bps Increase
87%
50+ bps increase
1%
25 bps Increase 87%
No change 12.8%
50+ bps increase <1%
50+ bps decrease <1%
$283,988 거래량
$283,988 거래량
2026.06.11
50+ bps decrease
$59,102 거래량
<1%
25 bps decrease
$46,267 거래량
<1%
No change
$52,442 거래량
13%
25 bps Increase
$72,373 거래량
87%
50+ bps increase
$53,804 거래량
1%
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) June 2026 meeting.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.Recent escalation in Middle East geopolitical tensions has driven sharp rises in euro-area energy prices, lifting 2026 headline HICP inflation forecasts to 2.7% and intensifying upside risks to the ECB’s 2% target. Following the April 30, 2026 decision to hold the deposit facility rate at 2.00%, Governing Council communications signaled data-dependent tightening, with most economists now expecting a 25 basis point hike at the June 11 meeting to contain second-round effects. This backdrop underpins the 86.5% market-implied probability of a June increase, while the slim 12.9% odds of no change reflect residual uncertainty over growth fallout and wage dynamics. Traders will closely monitor May inflation prints and any de-escalation signals ahead of the next policy announcement.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) June 2026 meeting.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.
마켓 개설일: Mar 19, 2026, 7:24 PM ET
거래량
$283,988종료일
2026.06.11마켓 개설일
Mar 19, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) June 2026 meeting.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.Recent escalation in Middle East geopolitical tensions has driven sharp rises in euro-area energy prices, lifting 2026 headline HICP inflation forecasts to 2.7% and intensifying upside risks to the ECB’s 2% target. Following the April 30, 2026 decision to hold the deposit facility rate at 2.00%, Governing Council communications signaled data-dependent tightening, with most economists now expecting a 25 basis point hike at the June 11 meeting to contain second-round effects. This backdrop underpins the 86.5% market-implied probability of a June increase, while the slim 12.9% odds of no change reflect residual uncertainty over growth fallout and wage dynamics. Traders will closely monitor May inflation prints and any de-escalation signals ahead of the next policy announcement.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) June 2026 meeting.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.
거래량
$283,988종료일
2026.06.11마켓 개설일
Mar 19, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent escalation in Middle East geopolitical tensions has driven sharp rises in euro-area energy prices, lifting 2026 headline HICP inflation forecasts to 2.7% and intensifying upside risks to the ECB’s 2% target. Following the April 30, 2026 decision to hold the deposit facility rate at 2.00%, Governing Council communications signaled data-dependent tightening, with most economists now expecting a 25 basis point hike at the June 11 meeting to contain second-round effects. This backdrop underpins the 86.5% market-implied probability of a June increase, while the slim 12.9% odds of no change reflect residual uncertainty over growth fallout and wage dynamics. Traders will closely monitor May inflation prints and any de-escalation signals ahead of the next policy announcement.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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