Despite a Japanese destroyer's transit through the Taiwan Strait on April 17—denounced by Beijing as deliberate provocation—and China's April warnings against Tokyo's long-range missile deployments in Kumamoto and Shizuoka, trader consensus prices an 86.5% chance of no military clash before 2027, reflecting persistent gray-zone tactics without kinetic exchanges. The 2025-2026 diplomatic crisis, fueled by radar locks on aircraft, coast guard confrontations near Senkaku/Diaoyu islands, and Japan's Taiwan intervention pledges, has seen heightened rhetoric, airspace probes, and export curbs, yet mutual deterrence via U.S.-Japan alliance enhancements, economic ties, and Beijing's Taiwan focus maintains restraint. Miscalculation risks persist amid East China Sea patrols, but historical patterns favor de-escalation over open conflict.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트예
$600,016 거래량
$600,016 거래량
2026.12.31
예
$600,016 거래량
$600,016 거래량
2026.12.31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Japan between November 17, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Japanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Japan Coast Guard (JCG) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Despite a Japanese destroyer's transit through the Taiwan Strait on April 17—denounced by Beijing as deliberate provocation—and China's April warnings against Tokyo's long-range missile deployments in Kumamoto and Shizuoka, trader consensus prices an 86.5% chance of no military clash before 2027, reflecting persistent gray-zone tactics without kinetic exchanges. The 2025-2026 diplomatic crisis, fueled by radar locks on aircraft, coast guard confrontations near Senkaku/Diaoyu islands, and Japan's Taiwan intervention pledges, has seen heightened rhetoric, airspace probes, and export curbs, yet mutual deterrence via U.S.-Japan alliance enhancements, economic ties, and Beijing's Taiwan focus maintains restraint. Miscalculation risks persist amid East China Sea patrols, but historical patterns favor de-escalation over open conflict.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Japan between November 17, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Japanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Japan Coast Guard (JCG) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Japanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Japan Coast Guard (JCG) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
마켓 개설일: Nov 18, 2025, 10:43 AM ET
거래량
$600,016종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Nov 18, 2025, 10:43 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Japan between November 17, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Japanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Japan Coast Guard (JCG) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Despite a Japanese destroyer's transit through the Taiwan Strait on April 17—denounced by Beijing as deliberate provocation—and China's April warnings against Tokyo's long-range missile deployments in Kumamoto and Shizuoka, trader consensus prices an 86.5% chance of no military clash before 2027, reflecting persistent gray-zone tactics without kinetic exchanges. The 2025-2026 diplomatic crisis, fueled by radar locks on aircraft, coast guard confrontations near Senkaku/Diaoyu islands, and Japan's Taiwan intervention pledges, has seen heightened rhetoric, airspace probes, and export curbs, yet mutual deterrence via U.S.-Japan alliance enhancements, economic ties, and Beijing's Taiwan focus maintains restraint. Miscalculation risks persist amid East China Sea patrols, but historical patterns favor de-escalation over open conflict.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Japan between November 17, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Japanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Japan Coast Guard (JCG) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Japanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Japan Coast Guard (JCG) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
거래량
$600,016종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Nov 18, 2025, 10:43 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Despite a Japanese destroyer's transit through the Taiwan Strait on April 17—denounced by Beijing as deliberate provocation—and China's April warnings against Tokyo's long-range missile deployments in Kumamoto and Shizuoka, trader consensus prices an 86.5% chance of no military clash before 2027, reflecting persistent gray-zone tactics without kinetic exchanges. The 2025-2026 diplomatic crisis, fueled by radar locks on aircraft, coast guard confrontations near Senkaku/Diaoyu islands, and Japan's Taiwan intervention pledges, has seen heightened rhetoric, airspace probes, and export curbs, yet mutual deterrence via U.S.-Japan alliance enhancements, economic ties, and Beijing's Taiwan focus maintains restraint. Miscalculation risks persist amid East China Sea patrols, but historical patterns favor de-escalation over open conflict.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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