Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a modest year-end official USD/ARS rate below 1600 (32.5%) or in the 1600–1699 range (26.5%), driven by Argentina's crawling peg policy—shifted to inflation-linked bands in January 2026—and steady central bank reserve accumulation of $5.4 billion YTD toward a $10–17 billion target. Recent March inflation at 3.4% monthly (annualized 32.6%) tempered optimism despite disinflation from prior hyperinflation peaks, while an IMF staff-level agreement unlocks $1 billion, supporting fiscal reforms under President Milei. Closely contested odds reflect uncertainty over sustained reserve buildup versus potential inflation rebound or policy tweaks; higher brackets gain traction if monthly devaluation accelerates beyond 2%, with upcoming April inflation data and IMF board approval as key catalysts.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트$15,912 거래량
$15,912 거래량
2026.12.31
<1600.00
34%
1600.00–1699.99
25%
1700.00–1799.99
18%
1800.00–1899.99
15%
1900.00–1999.99
7%
2000.00+
18%
$15,912 거래량
$15,912 거래량
2026.12.31
<1600.00
$1,314 거래량
34%
1600.00–1699.99
$1,005 거래량
25%
1700.00–1799.99
$929 거래량
18%
1800.00–1899.99
$713 거래량
15%
1900.00–1999.99
$10,972 거래량
7%
2000.00+
$979 거래량
18%
This is a market about Argentina’s official wholesale U.S. dollar exchange rate at market close on the last business day of December 2026, as published by the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA).
This market will resolve according to the official wholesale USD to ARS exchange rate (Tipo de Cambio Mayorista, ($ por USD) Com. A 3500 | Referencia) at market close on the final business day of December 2026, as published by the BCRA on its official website (https://www.bcra.gob.ar/).
If the official rate for that date has not been published by the end of the 7th day after the end of the specified month, the market will resolve according to the most recently published official wholesale rate preceding that date.
The resolution source for this market will be the official BCRA publication. Resolution will occur once this figure is available.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA), which reports the Wholesale Exchange Rate to two decimal points (e.g., 1,408.02 ARS per USD). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a modest year-end official USD/ARS rate below 1600 (32.5%) or in the 1600–1699 range (26.5%), driven by Argentina's crawling peg policy—shifted to inflation-linked bands in January 2026—and steady central bank reserve accumulation of $5.4 billion YTD toward a $10–17 billion target. Recent March inflation at 3.4% monthly (annualized 32.6%) tempered optimism despite disinflation from prior hyperinflation peaks, while an IMF staff-level agreement unlocks $1 billion, supporting fiscal reforms under President Milei. Closely contested odds reflect uncertainty over sustained reserve buildup versus potential inflation rebound or policy tweaks; higher brackets gain traction if monthly devaluation accelerates beyond 2%, with upcoming April inflation data and IMF board approval as key catalysts.
This is a market about Argentina’s official wholesale U.S. dollar exchange rate at market close on the last business day of December 2026, as published by the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA).
This market will resolve according to the official wholesale USD to ARS exchange rate (Tipo de Cambio Mayorista, ($ por USD) Com. A 3500 | Referencia) at market close on the final business day of December 2026, as published by the BCRA on its official website (https://www.bcra.gob.ar/).
If the official rate for that date has not been published by the end of the 7th day after the end of the specified month, the market will resolve according to the most recently published official wholesale rate preceding that date.
The resolution source for this market will be the official BCRA publication. Resolution will occur once this figure is available.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA), which reports the Wholesale Exchange Rate to two decimal points (e.g., 1,408.02 ARS per USD). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
This market will resolve according to the official wholesale USD to ARS exchange rate (Tipo de Cambio Mayorista, ($ por USD) Com. A 3500 | Referencia) at market close on the final business day of December 2026, as published by the BCRA on its official website (https://www.bcra.gob.ar/).
If the official rate for that date has not been published by the end of the 7th day after the end of the specified month, the market will resolve according to the most recently published official wholesale rate preceding that date.
The resolution source for this market will be the official BCRA publication. Resolution will occur once this figure is available.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA), which reports the Wholesale Exchange Rate to two decimal points (e.g., 1,408.02 ARS per USD). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
마켓 개설일: Jan 26, 2026, 4:48 PM ET
거래량
$15,912종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Jan 26, 2026, 4:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This is a market about Argentina’s official wholesale U.S. dollar exchange rate at market close on the last business day of December 2026, as published by the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA).
This market will resolve according to the official wholesale USD to ARS exchange rate (Tipo de Cambio Mayorista, ($ por USD) Com. A 3500 | Referencia) at market close on the final business day of December 2026, as published by the BCRA on its official website (https://www.bcra.gob.ar/).
If the official rate for that date has not been published by the end of the 7th day after the end of the specified month, the market will resolve according to the most recently published official wholesale rate preceding that date.
The resolution source for this market will be the official BCRA publication. Resolution will occur once this figure is available.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA), which reports the Wholesale Exchange Rate to two decimal points (e.g., 1,408.02 ARS per USD). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a modest year-end official USD/ARS rate below 1600 (32.5%) or in the 1600–1699 range (26.5%), driven by Argentina's crawling peg policy—shifted to inflation-linked bands in January 2026—and steady central bank reserve accumulation of $5.4 billion YTD toward a $10–17 billion target. Recent March inflation at 3.4% monthly (annualized 32.6%) tempered optimism despite disinflation from prior hyperinflation peaks, while an IMF staff-level agreement unlocks $1 billion, supporting fiscal reforms under President Milei. Closely contested odds reflect uncertainty over sustained reserve buildup versus potential inflation rebound or policy tweaks; higher brackets gain traction if monthly devaluation accelerates beyond 2%, with upcoming April inflation data and IMF board approval as key catalysts.
This is a market about Argentina’s official wholesale U.S. dollar exchange rate at market close on the last business day of December 2026, as published by the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA).
This market will resolve according to the official wholesale USD to ARS exchange rate (Tipo de Cambio Mayorista, ($ por USD) Com. A 3500 | Referencia) at market close on the final business day of December 2026, as published by the BCRA on its official website (https://www.bcra.gob.ar/).
If the official rate for that date has not been published by the end of the 7th day after the end of the specified month, the market will resolve according to the most recently published official wholesale rate preceding that date.
The resolution source for this market will be the official BCRA publication. Resolution will occur once this figure is available.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA), which reports the Wholesale Exchange Rate to two decimal points (e.g., 1,408.02 ARS per USD). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
This market will resolve according to the official wholesale USD to ARS exchange rate (Tipo de Cambio Mayorista, ($ por USD) Com. A 3500 | Referencia) at market close on the final business day of December 2026, as published by the BCRA on its official website (https://www.bcra.gob.ar/).
If the official rate for that date has not been published by the end of the 7th day after the end of the specified month, the market will resolve according to the most recently published official wholesale rate preceding that date.
The resolution source for this market will be the official BCRA publication. Resolution will occur once this figure is available.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA), which reports the Wholesale Exchange Rate to two decimal points (e.g., 1,408.02 ARS per USD). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
거래량
$15,912종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Jan 26, 2026, 4:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a modest year-end official USD/ARS rate below 1600 (32.5%) or in the 1600–1699 range (26.5%), driven by Argentina's crawling peg policy—shifted to inflation-linked bands in January 2026—and steady central bank reserve accumulation of $5.4 billion YTD toward a $10–17 billion target. Recent March inflation at 3.4% monthly (annualized 32.6%) tempered optimism despite disinflation from prior hyperinflation peaks, while an IMF staff-level agreement unlocks $1 billion, supporting fiscal reforms under President Milei. Closely contested odds reflect uncertainty over sustained reserve buildup versus potential inflation rebound or policy tweaks; higher brackets gain traction if monthly devaluation accelerates beyond 2%, with upcoming April inflation data and IMF board approval as key catalysts.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
외부 링크에 주의하세요.
외부 링크에 주의하세요.
자주 묻는 질문