Preliminary NOAA data released in early May 2026 shows April's global land-ocean surface temperature anomaly at approximately 1.17°C above the 1901-2000 baseline, aligning closely with the 1.15–1.19ºC bin commanding 95.9% market-implied probability on the NASA GISS index (1951-1980 baseline), which resolves the market. This positioning reflects consistent reanalysis from ERA5 (around 1.43°C versus pre-industrial, adjusted for baselines) amid neutral ENSO conditions following El Niño's dissipation, bolstered by record sea surface temperatures averaging 21.08°C—the second-highest April on record per Copernicus Marine Service. Trader consensus underscores the wisdom of crowds, with skin-in-the-game bets favoring stability despite typical ±0.05°C revisions. Challenges could arise from final GISS adjustments incorporating late Arctic or land data, potentially nudging below 1.15ºC if cool anomalies emerge, though upward shifts to 1.20ºC+ remain plausible given ocean heat persistence; expect resolution post-NASA update in mid-May.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트2026년 4월 온도 상승 (ºC)
2026년 4월 온도 상승 (ºC)
1.15–1.19ºC 95.8%
1.20–1.24ºC 2.9%
1.10–1.14ºC 1.7%
>1.29ºC <1%
$332,308 거래량
$332,308 거래량
2026.05.10
<1.10ºC
<1%
1.10–1.14ºC
2%
1.15–1.19ºC
96%
1.20–1.24ºC
3%
1.25–1.29ºC
<1%
>1.29ºC
1%
1.15–1.19ºC 95.8%
1.20–1.24ºC 2.9%
1.10–1.14ºC 1.7%
>1.29ºC <1%
$332,308 거래량
$332,308 거래량
2026.05.10
<1.10ºC
$54,938 거래량
<1%
1.10–1.14ºC
$61,450 거래량
2%
1.15–1.19ºC
$47,150 거래량
96%
1.20–1.24ºC
$66,845 거래량
3%
1.25–1.29ºC
$57,386 거래량
<1%
>1.29ºC
$44,538 거래량
1%
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for April 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for April 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for April 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by June 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Preliminary NOAA data released in early May 2026 shows April's global land-ocean surface temperature anomaly at approximately 1.17°C above the 1901-2000 baseline, aligning closely with the 1.15–1.19ºC bin commanding 95.9% market-implied probability on the NASA GISS index (1951-1980 baseline), which resolves the market. This positioning reflects consistent reanalysis from ERA5 (around 1.43°C versus pre-industrial, adjusted for baselines) amid neutral ENSO conditions following El Niño's dissipation, bolstered by record sea surface temperatures averaging 21.08°C—the second-highest April on record per Copernicus Marine Service. Trader consensus underscores the wisdom of crowds, with skin-in-the-game bets favoring stability despite typical ±0.05°C revisions. Challenges could arise from final GISS adjustments incorporating late Arctic or land data, potentially nudging below 1.15ºC if cool anomalies emerge, though upward shifts to 1.20ºC+ remain plausible given ocean heat persistence; expect resolution post-NASA update in mid-May.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for April 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for April 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for April 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by June 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for April 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for April 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by June 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
마켓 개설일: Mar 23, 2026, 6:04 PM ET
거래량
$332,308종료일
2026.05.10마켓 개설일
Mar 23, 2026, 6:04 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for April 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for April 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for April 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by June 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Preliminary NOAA data released in early May 2026 shows April's global land-ocean surface temperature anomaly at approximately 1.17°C above the 1901-2000 baseline, aligning closely with the 1.15–1.19ºC bin commanding 95.9% market-implied probability on the NASA GISS index (1951-1980 baseline), which resolves the market. This positioning reflects consistent reanalysis from ERA5 (around 1.43°C versus pre-industrial, adjusted for baselines) amid neutral ENSO conditions following El Niño's dissipation, bolstered by record sea surface temperatures averaging 21.08°C—the second-highest April on record per Copernicus Marine Service. Trader consensus underscores the wisdom of crowds, with skin-in-the-game bets favoring stability despite typical ±0.05°C revisions. Challenges could arise from final GISS adjustments incorporating late Arctic or land data, potentially nudging below 1.15ºC if cool anomalies emerge, though upward shifts to 1.20ºC+ remain plausible given ocean heat persistence; expect resolution post-NASA update in mid-May.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for April 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for April 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for April 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by June 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for April 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for April 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by June 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
거래량
$332,308종료일
2026.05.10마켓 개설일
Mar 23, 2026, 6:04 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Preliminary NOAA data released in early May 2026 shows April's global land-ocean surface temperature anomaly at approximately 1.17°C above the 1901-2000 baseline, aligning closely with the 1.15–1.19ºC bin commanding 95.9% market-implied probability on the NASA GISS index (1951-1980 baseline), which resolves the market. This positioning reflects consistent reanalysis from ERA5 (around 1.43°C versus pre-industrial, adjusted for baselines) amid neutral ENSO conditions following El Niño's dissipation, bolstered by record sea surface temperatures averaging 21.08°C—the second-highest April on record per Copernicus Marine Service. Trader consensus underscores the wisdom of crowds, with skin-in-the-game bets favoring stability despite typical ±0.05°C revisions. Challenges could arise from final GISS adjustments incorporating late Arctic or land data, potentially nudging below 1.15ºC if cool anomalies emerge, though upward shifts to 1.20ºC+ remain plausible given ocean heat persistence; expect resolution post-NASA update in mid-May.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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