Ongoing tensions over Strait of Hormuz navigation routes and Iranian demands for transit fees or oversight have strained relations with Oman, a traditional mediator favoring freedom of navigation under international law. Recent collapses in proposed regional conferences, Iranian rejections of joint governance proposals, and continued IRGC-linked strikes on commercial vessels in Omani waters have heightened risks of direct targeting of Omani ports or territory. Diplomatic talks persist amid the broader US-Iran conflict, with Oman protesting past attacks on facilities like Duqm while seeking de-escalation through bilateral channels. Upcoming technical discussions or enforcement actions by external navies could influence escalation thresholds before any market resolution date.