Anthropic's confidential filing of draft registration papers with the SEC on June 1 has emerged as the key catalyst shifting trader consensus toward a 75% implied probability that it reaches public markets ahead of OpenAI. The move positions the Claude large language model developer to potentially debut later this year once regulatory review concludes, while OpenAI continues preparations with bankers but has not yet submitted its own filing despite earlier May reports targeting a possible September or fourth-quarter window. Both artificial intelligence companies face intense capital demands for compute infrastructure and model training, yet Anthropic's accelerated paperwork gives it a measurable edge in the race. Market conditions, SEC timelines, and any last-minute internal or regulatory hurdles could still alter the outcome before either listing occurs.