Trader consensus on Polymarket gives Anthropic a 64.5% implied probability of IPOing first over OpenAI, driven by the AI safety-focused lab's accelerated preparations, including early banker discussions for a potential Q4 2026 listing that could raise over $60 billion at a $380–$500 billion valuation, bolstered by its revenue tripling to a $30 billion annual run-rate. In contrast, OpenAI faces internal friction, with CFO Sarah Friar flagging CEO Sam Altman's aggressive late-2026 timeline as risky amid projected $121 billion compute spends by 2028 and ongoing cash burn, despite its $852 billion valuation. Key catalysts include Anthropic's rejection of $800 billion private offers and upcoming S-1 filings, while OpenAI's enterprise revenue push to 40% of total offers limited reassurance; resolution hinges on SEC filings before year-end.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoAnthropic
$52,599 Vol.
$52,599 Vol.
31 dic 2027
Anthropic
$52,599 Vol.
$52,599 Vol.
31 dic 2027
This market will resolve to "Anthropic" if Anthropic completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before OpenAI completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before Anthropic completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve 50-50 if:
- Neither company completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET;
- Both companies complete an IPO on the same calendar date (ET); or
- By December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.
The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on Polymarket gives Anthropic a 64.5% implied probability of IPOing first over OpenAI, driven by the AI safety-focused lab's accelerated preparations, including early banker discussions for a potential Q4 2026 listing that could raise over $60 billion at a $380–$500 billion valuation, bolstered by its revenue tripling to a $30 billion annual run-rate. In contrast, OpenAI faces internal friction, with CFO Sarah Friar flagging CEO Sam Altman's aggressive late-2026 timeline as risky amid projected $121 billion compute spends by 2028 and ongoing cash burn, despite its $852 billion valuation. Key catalysts include Anthropic's rejection of $800 billion private offers and upcoming S-1 filings, while OpenAI's enterprise revenue push to 40% of total offers limited reassurance; resolution hinges on SEC filings before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Anthropic" if Anthropic completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before OpenAI completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before Anthropic completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve 50-50 if:
- Neither company completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET;
- Both companies complete an IPO on the same calendar date (ET); or
- By December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.
The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before Anthropic completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve 50-50 if:
- Neither company completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET;
- Both companies complete an IPO on the same calendar date (ET); or
- By December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.
The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercato aperto: Jan 30, 2026, 5:43 PM ET
Volume
$52,599Data di fine
31 dic 2027Mercato aperto
Jan 30, 2026, 5:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Anthropic" if Anthropic completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before OpenAI completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before Anthropic completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve 50-50 if:
- Neither company completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET;
- Both companies complete an IPO on the same calendar date (ET); or
- By December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.
The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on Polymarket gives Anthropic a 64.5% implied probability of IPOing first over OpenAI, driven by the AI safety-focused lab's accelerated preparations, including early banker discussions for a potential Q4 2026 listing that could raise over $60 billion at a $380–$500 billion valuation, bolstered by its revenue tripling to a $30 billion annual run-rate. In contrast, OpenAI faces internal friction, with CFO Sarah Friar flagging CEO Sam Altman's aggressive late-2026 timeline as risky amid projected $121 billion compute spends by 2028 and ongoing cash burn, despite its $852 billion valuation. Key catalysts include Anthropic's rejection of $800 billion private offers and upcoming S-1 filings, while OpenAI's enterprise revenue push to 40% of total offers limited reassurance; resolution hinges on SEC filings before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Anthropic" if Anthropic completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before OpenAI completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before Anthropic completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve 50-50 if:
- Neither company completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET;
- Both companies complete an IPO on the same calendar date (ET); or
- By December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.
The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before Anthropic completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve 50-50 if:
- Neither company completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET;
- Both companies complete an IPO on the same calendar date (ET); or
- By December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.
The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$52,599Data di fine
31 dic 2027Mercato aperto
Jan 30, 2026, 5:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket gives Anthropic a 64.5% implied probability of IPOing first over OpenAI, driven by the AI safety-focused lab's accelerated preparations, including early banker discussions for a potential Q4 2026 listing that could raise over $60 billion at a $380–$500 billion valuation, bolstered by its revenue tripling to a $30 billion annual run-rate. In contrast, OpenAI faces internal friction, with CFO Sarah Friar flagging CEO Sam Altman's aggressive late-2026 timeline as risky amid projected $121 billion compute spends by 2028 and ongoing cash burn, despite its $852 billion valuation. Key catalysts include Anthropic's rejection of $800 billion private offers and upcoming S-1 filings, while OpenAI's enterprise revenue push to 40% of total offers limited reassurance; resolution hinges on SEC filings before year-end.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
Fai attenzione ai link esterni.
Fai attenzione ai link esterni.
Domande frequenti