**Anthropic holds a clear edge at 73% implied probability because it confidentially filed its S-1 registration with the SEC on June 1, 2026, roughly one week ahead of OpenAI.** This timing advantage accelerates the regulatory review process for Anthropic while both companies target late-2026 listings, with possible windows in the fall or fourth quarter. OpenAI followed with its own confidential filing around June 8 and has discussed ambitions as early as September, yet its larger scale, ongoing profitability challenges, and internal statements about preferring more preparation time as a private company introduce greater execution risk. Traders view Anthropic’s earlier filing, combined with recent funding rounds valuing it near $965 billion, as the decisive catalyst establishing a lead in the race to market, though both timelines remain subject to market conditions and SEC feedback.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoAnthropic
$171,310 Vol.
$171,310 Vol.
31 dic 2027
Anthropic
$171,310 Vol.
$171,310 Vol.
31 dic 2027
This market will resolve to "Anthropic" if Anthropic completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before OpenAI completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before Anthropic completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve 50-50 if:
- Neither company completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET;
- Both companies complete an IPO on the same calendar date (ET); or
- By December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.
The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.**Anthropic holds a clear edge at 73% implied probability because it confidentially filed its S-1 registration with the SEC on June 1, 2026, roughly one week ahead of OpenAI.** This timing advantage accelerates the regulatory review process for Anthropic while both companies target late-2026 listings, with possible windows in the fall or fourth quarter. OpenAI followed with its own confidential filing around June 8 and has discussed ambitions as early as September, yet its larger scale, ongoing profitability challenges, and internal statements about preferring more preparation time as a private company introduce greater execution risk. Traders view Anthropic’s earlier filing, combined with recent funding rounds valuing it near $965 billion, as the decisive catalyst establishing a lead in the race to market, though both timelines remain subject to market conditions and SEC feedback.
This market will resolve to "Anthropic" if Anthropic completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before OpenAI completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before Anthropic completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve 50-50 if:
- Neither company completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET;
- Both companies complete an IPO on the same calendar date (ET); or
- By December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.
The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before Anthropic completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve 50-50 if:
- Neither company completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET;
- Both companies complete an IPO on the same calendar date (ET); or
- By December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.
The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercato aperto: Jan 30, 2026, 5:43 PM ET
Volume
$171,310Data di fine
31 dic 2027Mercato aperto
Jan 30, 2026, 5:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Anthropic" if Anthropic completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before OpenAI completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before Anthropic completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve 50-50 if:
- Neither company completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET;
- Both companies complete an IPO on the same calendar date (ET); or
- By December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.
The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.**Anthropic holds a clear edge at 73% implied probability because it confidentially filed its S-1 registration with the SEC on June 1, 2026, roughly one week ahead of OpenAI.** This timing advantage accelerates the regulatory review process for Anthropic while both companies target late-2026 listings, with possible windows in the fall or fourth quarter. OpenAI followed with its own confidential filing around June 8 and has discussed ambitions as early as September, yet its larger scale, ongoing profitability challenges, and internal statements about preferring more preparation time as a private company introduce greater execution risk. Traders view Anthropic’s earlier filing, combined with recent funding rounds valuing it near $965 billion, as the decisive catalyst establishing a lead in the race to market, though both timelines remain subject to market conditions and SEC feedback.
This market will resolve to "Anthropic" if Anthropic completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before OpenAI completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before Anthropic completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve 50-50 if:
- Neither company completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET;
- Both companies complete an IPO on the same calendar date (ET); or
- By December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.
The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before Anthropic completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve 50-50 if:
- Neither company completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET;
- Both companies complete an IPO on the same calendar date (ET); or
- By December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.
The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$171,310Data di fine
31 dic 2027Mercato aperto
Jan 30, 2026, 5:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Anthropic holds a clear edge at 73% implied probability because it confidentially filed its S-1 registration with the SEC on June 1, 2026, roughly one week ahead of OpenAI.** This timing advantage accelerates the regulatory review process for Anthropic while both companies target late-2026 listings, with possible windows in the fall or fourth quarter. OpenAI followed with its own confidential filing around June 8 and has discussed ambitions as early as September, yet its larger scale, ongoing profitability challenges, and internal statements about preferring more preparation time as a private company introduce greater execution risk. Traders view Anthropic’s earlier filing, combined with recent funding rounds valuing it near $965 billion, as the decisive catalyst establishing a lead in the race to market, though both timelines remain subject to market conditions and SEC feedback.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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