U.S. banks enter the final month before the June 30 resolution with two small institutions already closed in 2026—Metropolitan Capital Bank & Trust in January and Community Bank & Trust–West Georgia in early May—both under $300 million in assets and resolved through standard FDIC processes without contagion. The sector maintains historically high regulatory capital ratios, ample liquidity buffers, and favorable asset-quality metrics, with first-quarter 2026 profits rising 3.6 percent to $80.5 billion amid stable deposit growth. The FDIC’s 2026 Risk Review, based on 2025 data, places problem banks at 60 institutions or 1.4 percent of the total, within normal ranges, while Fed stress-test scenarios released earlier this year confirmed capital resilience even under severely adverse conditions. With no major FOMC meetings, earnings releases, or regulatory deadlines imminent, firm-specific vulnerabilities rather than systemic pressures remain the dominant driver of any near-term failure odds.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato$513,142 Vol.
30 giu 2026
BNY
3%
Santander
3%
RBC
2%
Lloyds
2%
BMO
1%
Scotiabank
1%
Truist
1%
HSBC
1%
KeyBank
1%
Deutsche Bank
1%
Wells Fargo
1%
UBS
1%
Bank of America
1%
BNP Paribas
1%
Citigroup
1%
Morgan Stanley
1%
Goldman Sachs
1%
US Bank
1%
JPMorgan Chase
<1%
$513,142 Vol.
BNY
$460 Vol.
3%
Santander
$390 Vol.
3%
RBC
$461 Vol.
2%
Lloyds
$675 Vol.
2%
BMO
$1,274 Vol.
1%
Scotiabank
$47,933 Vol.
1%
Truist
$223 Vol.
1%
HSBC
$40,343 Vol.
1%
KeyBank
$793 Vol.
1%
Deutsche Bank
$168,703 Vol.
1%
Wells Fargo
$822 Vol.
1%
UBS
$38,210 Vol.
1%
Bank of America
$770 Vol.
1%
BNP Paribas
$23,774 Vol.
1%
Citigroup
$10,729 Vol.
1%
Morgan Stanley
$573 Vol.
1%
Goldman Sachs
$34,549 Vol.
1%
US Bank
$1,019 Vol.
1%
JPMorgan Chase
$141,440 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed bank fails between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
For the purposes of this market, the listed bank will be considered to have “failed” if, within the listed date range, any of the following occurs under the bank’s applicable legal or regulatory framework:
- The listed bank’s primary banking regulator formally declares the institution insolvent or non-viable, or withdraws or revokes the bank’s license or authorization, and such determination initiates or directly results in resolution, liquidation, wind-down, or transfer actions.
- The listed bank enters a court-ordered liquidation, statutory resolution regime, or regulator-mandated wind-down, including the use of resolution tools such as bail-ins, forced asset transfers, or the establishment of a bridge bank.
- A government or resolution authority intervenes in a manner that wipes out or subordinates existing equity of the listed bank and transfers effective control of the bank to the state or a designated resolution authority, with continued operations dependent on official intervention.
- The listed bank publicly defaults on a payment obligation, including derivatives margin, repo, or physical commodity delivery, and such default is formally acknowledged by the bank’s primary regulator or resolution authority and directly results in the initiation of resolution, liquidation, license withdrawal, or regulator-mandated transfer of the bank.
- The listed bank is subject to a compulsory merger, acquisition, or transfer of all or substantially all of its assets and liabilities ordered or directed by its primary banking regulator or resolution authority due to the bank’s financial condition or to prevent failure, regardless of whether a formal insolvency declaration or immediate equity wipeout is publicly announced at the time of transfer.
If there is a potential failure of the listed bank within this market’s date range and a qualifying regulatory or court action has occurred but has not yet been fully published by the relevant authority, this market may remain open to allow for confirmation. If no qualifying failure is confirmed by that date, this market will resolve to “No.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements, filings, or actions by the listed bank’s primary banking regulator or resolution authority; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.U.S. banks enter the final month before the June 30 resolution with two small institutions already closed in 2026—Metropolitan Capital Bank & Trust in January and Community Bank & Trust–West Georgia in early May—both under $300 million in assets and resolved through standard FDIC processes without contagion. The sector maintains historically high regulatory capital ratios, ample liquidity buffers, and favorable asset-quality metrics, with first-quarter 2026 profits rising 3.6 percent to $80.5 billion amid stable deposit growth. The FDIC’s 2026 Risk Review, based on 2025 data, places problem banks at 60 institutions or 1.4 percent of the total, within normal ranges, while Fed stress-test scenarios released earlier this year confirmed capital resilience even under severely adverse conditions. With no major FOMC meetings, earnings releases, or regulatory deadlines imminent, firm-specific vulnerabilities rather than systemic pressures remain the dominant driver of any near-term failure odds.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed bank fails between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
For the purposes of this market, the listed bank will be considered to have “failed” if, within the listed date range, any of the following occurs under the bank’s applicable legal or regulatory framework:
- The listed bank’s primary banking regulator formally declares the institution insolvent or non-viable, or withdraws or revokes the bank’s license or authorization, and such determination initiates or directly results in resolution, liquidation, wind-down, or transfer actions.
- The listed bank enters a court-ordered liquidation, statutory resolution regime, or regulator-mandated wind-down, including the use of resolution tools such as bail-ins, forced asset transfers, or the establishment of a bridge bank.
- A government or resolution authority intervenes in a manner that wipes out or subordinates existing equity of the listed bank and transfers effective control of the bank to the state or a designated resolution authority, with continued operations dependent on official intervention.
- The listed bank publicly defaults on a payment obligation, including derivatives margin, repo, or physical commodity delivery, and such default is formally acknowledged by the bank’s primary regulator or resolution authority and directly results in the initiation of resolution, liquidation, license withdrawal, or regulator-mandated transfer of the bank.
- The listed bank is subject to a compulsory merger, acquisition, or transfer of all or substantially all of its assets and liabilities ordered or directed by its primary banking regulator or resolution authority due to the bank’s financial condition or to prevent failure, regardless of whether a formal insolvency declaration or immediate equity wipeout is publicly announced at the time of transfer.
If there is a potential failure of the listed bank within this market’s date range and a qualifying regulatory or court action has occurred but has not yet been fully published by the relevant authority, this market may remain open to allow for confirmation. If no qualifying failure is confirmed by that date, this market will resolve to “No.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements, filings, or actions by the listed bank’s primary banking regulator or resolution authority; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
For the purposes of this market, the listed bank will be considered to have “failed” if, within the listed date range, any of the following occurs under the bank’s applicable legal or regulatory framework:
- The listed bank’s primary banking regulator formally declares the institution insolvent or non-viable, or withdraws or revokes the bank’s license or authorization, and such determination initiates or directly results in resolution, liquidation, wind-down, or transfer actions.
- The listed bank enters a court-ordered liquidation, statutory resolution regime, or regulator-mandated wind-down, including the use of resolution tools such as bail-ins, forced asset transfers, or the establishment of a bridge bank.
- A government or resolution authority intervenes in a manner that wipes out or subordinates existing equity of the listed bank and transfers effective control of the bank to the state or a designated resolution authority, with continued operations dependent on official intervention.
- The listed bank publicly defaults on a payment obligation, including derivatives margin, repo, or physical commodity delivery, and such default is formally acknowledged by the bank’s primary regulator or resolution authority and directly results in the initiation of resolution, liquidation, license withdrawal, or regulator-mandated transfer of the bank.
- The listed bank is subject to a compulsory merger, acquisition, or transfer of all or substantially all of its assets and liabilities ordered or directed by its primary banking regulator or resolution authority due to the bank’s financial condition or to prevent failure, regardless of whether a formal insolvency declaration or immediate equity wipeout is publicly announced at the time of transfer.
If there is a potential failure of the listed bank within this market’s date range and a qualifying regulatory or court action has occurred but has not yet been fully published by the relevant authority, this market may remain open to allow for confirmation. If no qualifying failure is confirmed by that date, this market will resolve to “No.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements, filings, or actions by the listed bank’s primary banking regulator or resolution authority; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercato aperto: Dec 30, 2025, 7:03 PM ET
Volume
$513,142Data di fine
30 giu 2026Mercato aperto
Dec 30, 2025, 7:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed bank fails between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
For the purposes of this market, the listed bank will be considered to have “failed” if, within the listed date range, any of the following occurs under the bank’s applicable legal or regulatory framework:
- The listed bank’s primary banking regulator formally declares the institution insolvent or non-viable, or withdraws or revokes the bank’s license or authorization, and such determination initiates or directly results in resolution, liquidation, wind-down, or transfer actions.
- The listed bank enters a court-ordered liquidation, statutory resolution regime, or regulator-mandated wind-down, including the use of resolution tools such as bail-ins, forced asset transfers, or the establishment of a bridge bank.
- A government or resolution authority intervenes in a manner that wipes out or subordinates existing equity of the listed bank and transfers effective control of the bank to the state or a designated resolution authority, with continued operations dependent on official intervention.
- The listed bank publicly defaults on a payment obligation, including derivatives margin, repo, or physical commodity delivery, and such default is formally acknowledged by the bank’s primary regulator or resolution authority and directly results in the initiation of resolution, liquidation, license withdrawal, or regulator-mandated transfer of the bank.
- The listed bank is subject to a compulsory merger, acquisition, or transfer of all or substantially all of its assets and liabilities ordered or directed by its primary banking regulator or resolution authority due to the bank’s financial condition or to prevent failure, regardless of whether a formal insolvency declaration or immediate equity wipeout is publicly announced at the time of transfer.
If there is a potential failure of the listed bank within this market’s date range and a qualifying regulatory or court action has occurred but has not yet been fully published by the relevant authority, this market may remain open to allow for confirmation. If no qualifying failure is confirmed by that date, this market will resolve to “No.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements, filings, or actions by the listed bank’s primary banking regulator or resolution authority; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.U.S. banks enter the final month before the June 30 resolution with two small institutions already closed in 2026—Metropolitan Capital Bank & Trust in January and Community Bank & Trust–West Georgia in early May—both under $300 million in assets and resolved through standard FDIC processes without contagion. The sector maintains historically high regulatory capital ratios, ample liquidity buffers, and favorable asset-quality metrics, with first-quarter 2026 profits rising 3.6 percent to $80.5 billion amid stable deposit growth. The FDIC’s 2026 Risk Review, based on 2025 data, places problem banks at 60 institutions or 1.4 percent of the total, within normal ranges, while Fed stress-test scenarios released earlier this year confirmed capital resilience even under severely adverse conditions. With no major FOMC meetings, earnings releases, or regulatory deadlines imminent, firm-specific vulnerabilities rather than systemic pressures remain the dominant driver of any near-term failure odds.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed bank fails between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
For the purposes of this market, the listed bank will be considered to have “failed” if, within the listed date range, any of the following occurs under the bank’s applicable legal or regulatory framework:
- The listed bank’s primary banking regulator formally declares the institution insolvent or non-viable, or withdraws or revokes the bank’s license or authorization, and such determination initiates or directly results in resolution, liquidation, wind-down, or transfer actions.
- The listed bank enters a court-ordered liquidation, statutory resolution regime, or regulator-mandated wind-down, including the use of resolution tools such as bail-ins, forced asset transfers, or the establishment of a bridge bank.
- A government or resolution authority intervenes in a manner that wipes out or subordinates existing equity of the listed bank and transfers effective control of the bank to the state or a designated resolution authority, with continued operations dependent on official intervention.
- The listed bank publicly defaults on a payment obligation, including derivatives margin, repo, or physical commodity delivery, and such default is formally acknowledged by the bank’s primary regulator or resolution authority and directly results in the initiation of resolution, liquidation, license withdrawal, or regulator-mandated transfer of the bank.
- The listed bank is subject to a compulsory merger, acquisition, or transfer of all or substantially all of its assets and liabilities ordered or directed by its primary banking regulator or resolution authority due to the bank’s financial condition or to prevent failure, regardless of whether a formal insolvency declaration or immediate equity wipeout is publicly announced at the time of transfer.
If there is a potential failure of the listed bank within this market’s date range and a qualifying regulatory or court action has occurred but has not yet been fully published by the relevant authority, this market may remain open to allow for confirmation. If no qualifying failure is confirmed by that date, this market will resolve to “No.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements, filings, or actions by the listed bank’s primary banking regulator or resolution authority; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
For the purposes of this market, the listed bank will be considered to have “failed” if, within the listed date range, any of the following occurs under the bank’s applicable legal or regulatory framework:
- The listed bank’s primary banking regulator formally declares the institution insolvent or non-viable, or withdraws or revokes the bank’s license or authorization, and such determination initiates or directly results in resolution, liquidation, wind-down, or transfer actions.
- The listed bank enters a court-ordered liquidation, statutory resolution regime, or regulator-mandated wind-down, including the use of resolution tools such as bail-ins, forced asset transfers, or the establishment of a bridge bank.
- A government or resolution authority intervenes in a manner that wipes out or subordinates existing equity of the listed bank and transfers effective control of the bank to the state or a designated resolution authority, with continued operations dependent on official intervention.
- The listed bank publicly defaults on a payment obligation, including derivatives margin, repo, or physical commodity delivery, and such default is formally acknowledged by the bank’s primary regulator or resolution authority and directly results in the initiation of resolution, liquidation, license withdrawal, or regulator-mandated transfer of the bank.
- The listed bank is subject to a compulsory merger, acquisition, or transfer of all or substantially all of its assets and liabilities ordered or directed by its primary banking regulator or resolution authority due to the bank’s financial condition or to prevent failure, regardless of whether a formal insolvency declaration or immediate equity wipeout is publicly announced at the time of transfer.
If there is a potential failure of the listed bank within this market’s date range and a qualifying regulatory or court action has occurred but has not yet been fully published by the relevant authority, this market may remain open to allow for confirmation. If no qualifying failure is confirmed by that date, this market will resolve to “No.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements, filings, or actions by the listed bank’s primary banking regulator or resolution authority; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$513,142Data di fine
30 giu 2026Mercato aperto
Dec 30, 2025, 7:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...U.S. banks enter the final month before the June 30 resolution with two small institutions already closed in 2026—Metropolitan Capital Bank & Trust in January and Community Bank & Trust–West Georgia in early May—both under $300 million in assets and resolved through standard FDIC processes without contagion. The sector maintains historically high regulatory capital ratios, ample liquidity buffers, and favorable asset-quality metrics, with first-quarter 2026 profits rising 3.6 percent to $80.5 billion amid stable deposit growth. The FDIC’s 2026 Risk Review, based on 2025 data, places problem banks at 60 institutions or 1.4 percent of the total, within normal ranges, while Fed stress-test scenarios released earlier this year confirmed capital resilience even under severely adverse conditions. With no major FOMC meetings, earnings releases, or regulatory deadlines imminent, firm-specific vulnerabilities rather than systemic pressures remain the dominant driver of any near-term failure odds.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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