**President Donald Trump’s October 8 statement committing the United States to no attacks on Iran before the November 3 midterms, citing productive bilateral discussions, has anchored trader expectations for continued de-escalation.** Negotiators have reached a tentative 60-day ceasefire extension and memorandum of understanding that would reopen the Strait of Hormuz to unrestricted commerce while advancing talks on Iran’s nuclear program, sanctions relief, and related issues, though final U.S. approval remains pending. Low-level incidents persist around Hormuz shipping lanes, and both sides maintain leverage through blockades and military posture, yet the explicit pre-midterm pause and ongoing mediation have reduced near-term escalation risks. Traders view these developments as supporting a high probability that the current ceasefire framework holds through election day, even as core disputes over enrichment limits and regional security remain unresolved.