Incumbent Henry Cuellar holds a strong position in Texas' 28th congressional district heading into the November 3 general election, supported by his long tenure since 2005, established local networks in South Texas, and demonstrated crossover appeal among Hispanic voters. The district underwent mid-decade redistricting that improved Republican performance metrics, yet forecasters continue to rate it Lean or Tilt Democratic. Challenger Tano Tijerina, the Webb County judge and Trump-endorsed Republican nominee, benefits from national party momentum and recent presidential criticism of Cuellar over his decision to remain a Democrat following a 2025 pardon related to prior federal charges. Polling averages show Cuellar ahead, though the race remains competitive in a redrawn map. Trader consensus reflects Cuellar's incumbency edge and limited recent shifts from campaign events.