A developing super El Niño, with Niño-3.4 anomalies already exceeding +2.8°C and forecast to peak near +3.3°C by November, is the dominant near-term driver elevating September 2026 global mean temperatures above the 1991–2020 baseline. Record ocean heat content and the warmest August on record (1.65°C above 1850–1900 per ERA5) provide additional forcing, though model ensembles show spreads of 0.1–0.2°C tied to remaining intra-month variability and steering patterns. Official agencies such as NOAA and Copernicus note that September outcomes hinge on whether late-month cooling or sustained warmth materializes, producing closely matched market-implied odds across 1.30–1.49°C anomalies relative to pre-industrial levels. Updated seasonal forecasts and final ERA5 monthly means will clarify resolution.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoSettembre 2026 Aumento della temperatura (ºC)
Settembre 2026 Aumento della temperatura (ºC)
<1,30ºC 38%
1,35–1,39ºC 37%
1,40–1,44ºC 35%
1,45–1,49ºC 33%
NUOVO
NUOVO
9 ott 2026
<1,30ºC
38%
1,30–1,34ºC
32%
1,35–1,39ºC
37%
1,40–1,44ºC
35%
1,45–1,49ºC
33%
>1,49ºC
28%
<1,30ºC 38%
1,35–1,39ºC 37%
1,40–1,44ºC 35%
1,45–1,49ºC 33%
NUOVO
NUOVO
9 ott 2026
<1,30ºC
$0 Vol.
38%
1,30–1,34ºC
$0 Vol.
32%
1,35–1,39ºC
$0 Vol.
37%
1,40–1,44ºC
$0 Vol.
35%
1,45–1,49ºC
$0 Vol.
33%
>1,49ºC
$45 Vol.
28%
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for September 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for September 2026 is later revised.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the reported anomaly (to the nearest 0.01ºC) falls within exactly one bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Sep" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by November 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.A developing super El Niño, with Niño-3.4 anomalies already exceeding +2.8°C and forecast to peak near +3.3°C by November, is the dominant near-term driver elevating September 2026 global mean temperatures above the 1991–2020 baseline. Record ocean heat content and the warmest August on record (1.65°C above 1850–1900 per ERA5) provide additional forcing, though model ensembles show spreads of 0.1–0.2°C tied to remaining intra-month variability and steering patterns. Official agencies such as NOAA and Copernicus note that September outcomes hinge on whether late-month cooling or sustained warmth materializes, producing closely matched market-implied odds across 1.30–1.49°C anomalies relative to pre-industrial levels. Updated seasonal forecasts and final ERA5 monthly means will clarify resolution.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for September 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for September 2026 is later revised.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the reported anomaly (to the nearest 0.01ºC) falls within exactly one bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Sep" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by November 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for September 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for September 2026 is later revised.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the reported anomaly (to the nearest 0.01ºC) falls within exactly one bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Sep" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by November 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Mercato aperto: Aug 31, 2026, 9:36 AM ET
Volume
$45Data di fine
10 ott 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 31, 2026, 9:36 AM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txtRisolutore
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for September 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for September 2026 is later revised.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the reported anomaly (to the nearest 0.01ºC) falls within exactly one bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Sep" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by November 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.A developing super El Niño, with Niño-3.4 anomalies already exceeding +2.8°C and forecast to peak near +3.3°C by November, is the dominant near-term driver elevating September 2026 global mean temperatures above the 1991–2020 baseline. Record ocean heat content and the warmest August on record (1.65°C above 1850–1900 per ERA5) provide additional forcing, though model ensembles show spreads of 0.1–0.2°C tied to remaining intra-month variability and steering patterns. Official agencies such as NOAA and Copernicus note that September outcomes hinge on whether late-month cooling or sustained warmth materializes, producing closely matched market-implied odds across 1.30–1.49°C anomalies relative to pre-industrial levels. Updated seasonal forecasts and final ERA5 monthly means will clarify resolution.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for September 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for September 2026 is later revised.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the reported anomaly (to the nearest 0.01ºC) falls within exactly one bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Sep" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by November 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for September 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for September 2026 is later revised.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the reported anomaly (to the nearest 0.01ºC) falls within exactly one bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Sep" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by November 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Volume
$45Data di fine
10 ott 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 31, 2026, 9:36 AM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txtRisolutore
0x69c47De9D...A developing super El Niño, with Niño-3.4 anomalies already exceeding +2.8°C and forecast to peak near +3.3°C by November, is the dominant near-term driver elevating September 2026 global mean temperatures above the 1991–2020 baseline. Record ocean heat content and the warmest August on record (1.65°C above 1850–1900 per ERA5) provide additional forcing, though model ensembles show spreads of 0.1–0.2°C tied to remaining intra-month variability and steering patterns. Official agencies such as NOAA and Copernicus note that September outcomes hinge on whether late-month cooling or sustained warmth materializes, producing closely matched market-implied odds across 1.30–1.49°C anomalies relative to pre-industrial levels. Updated seasonal forecasts and final ERA5 monthly means will clarify resolution.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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