Recent referrals by Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard and related DOJ strike force activity have prompted investigations into Obama-era intelligence assessments on Russian election interference, including grand jury considerations, yet no indictment or charges against the former president have materialized. Fact-checking confirms the absence of any arrest record or imminent action as of October 2026, consistent with longstanding legal protections for official presidential acts and the practical timelines required for federal prosecutions. Traders assign 97.9% probability to no arrest before 2027 because the remaining window is brief, historical precedent shows no former president detained in this manner, and public statements from officials have not produced verifiable criminal proceedings. Potential shifts could stem from rapid new indictments or unforeseen evidence, though such developments remain speculative amid ongoing partisan disputes.