Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects cautious optimism at roughly 40% implied probability for a Yes resolution by June 30, 2026, driven by late April leaks including datamined assets from Half-Life: Alyx files and unverified insider claims from NateTheHate and Mike Straw linking a potential Half-Life 3 (codenamed HLX) reveal to Valve's rumored Steam Deck successor hardware launch. These fueled brief speculation spikes, but Valve's radio silence—no official announcements in over five years since Alyx—highlights the franchise's dormancy and infamous "Valve Time" unpredictability, tempering bets amid low market liquidity of under $20K volume. Traders eye June catalysts like Summer Game Fest and Xbox Games Showcase for possible trailers, though historical patterns show Valve favors surprise drops over traditional events.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoNuovo gioco Half-Life di...?
Nuovo gioco Half-Life di...?
$16,356 Vol.
30 giu 2026
30 giugno 2026
21%
$16,356 Vol.
30 giugno 2026
$4,191 Vol.
21%
This market will resolve to if Valve publicly and explicitly announces that a new Half-Life game is in production by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
To qualify for a "Yes" resolution, the game must be explicitly acknowledged by Valve to be an installment of the Half-Life franchise or have the words "Half-Life" in the title. Updates to and expansion packs for already-released games will not be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes". An announcement by Valve of a new qualifying game before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced game becomes available to the public.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Valve or a consensus of credible sources.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects cautious optimism at roughly 40% implied probability for a Yes resolution by June 30, 2026, driven by late April leaks including datamined assets from Half-Life: Alyx files and unverified insider claims from NateTheHate and Mike Straw linking a potential Half-Life 3 (codenamed HLX) reveal to Valve's rumored Steam Deck successor hardware launch. These fueled brief speculation spikes, but Valve's radio silence—no official announcements in over five years since Alyx—highlights the franchise's dormancy and infamous "Valve Time" unpredictability, tempering bets amid low market liquidity of under $20K volume. Traders eye June catalysts like Summer Game Fest and Xbox Games Showcase for possible trailers, though historical patterns show Valve favors surprise drops over traditional events.
This market will resolve to if Valve publicly and explicitly announces that a new Half-Life game is in production by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
To qualify for a "Yes" resolution, the game must be explicitly acknowledged by Valve to be an installment of the Half-Life franchise or have the words "Half-Life" in the title. Updates to and expansion packs for already-released games will not be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes". An announcement by Valve of a new qualifying game before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced game becomes available to the public.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Valve or a consensus of credible sources.
To qualify for a "Yes" resolution, the game must be explicitly acknowledged by Valve to be an installment of the Half-Life franchise or have the words "Half-Life" in the title. Updates to and expansion packs for already-released games will not be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes". An announcement by Valve of a new qualifying game before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced game becomes available to the public.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Valve or a consensus of credible sources.
Mercato aperto: Nov 20, 2025, 3:38 PM ET
Volume
$16,356Data di fine
30 giu 2026Mercato aperto
Nov 20, 2025, 3:38 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to if Valve publicly and explicitly announces that a new Half-Life game is in production by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
To qualify for a "Yes" resolution, the game must be explicitly acknowledged by Valve to be an installment of the Half-Life franchise or have the words "Half-Life" in the title. Updates to and expansion packs for already-released games will not be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes". An announcement by Valve of a new qualifying game before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced game becomes available to the public.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Valve or a consensus of credible sources.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects cautious optimism at roughly 40% implied probability for a Yes resolution by June 30, 2026, driven by late April leaks including datamined assets from Half-Life: Alyx files and unverified insider claims from NateTheHate and Mike Straw linking a potential Half-Life 3 (codenamed HLX) reveal to Valve's rumored Steam Deck successor hardware launch. These fueled brief speculation spikes, but Valve's radio silence—no official announcements in over five years since Alyx—highlights the franchise's dormancy and infamous "Valve Time" unpredictability, tempering bets amid low market liquidity of under $20K volume. Traders eye June catalysts like Summer Game Fest and Xbox Games Showcase for possible trailers, though historical patterns show Valve favors surprise drops over traditional events.
This market will resolve to if Valve publicly and explicitly announces that a new Half-Life game is in production by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
To qualify for a "Yes" resolution, the game must be explicitly acknowledged by Valve to be an installment of the Half-Life franchise or have the words "Half-Life" in the title. Updates to and expansion packs for already-released games will not be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes". An announcement by Valve of a new qualifying game before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced game becomes available to the public.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Valve or a consensus of credible sources.
To qualify for a "Yes" resolution, the game must be explicitly acknowledged by Valve to be an installment of the Half-Life franchise or have the words "Half-Life" in the title. Updates to and expansion packs for already-released games will not be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes". An announcement by Valve of a new qualifying game before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced game becomes available to the public.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Valve or a consensus of credible sources.
Volume
$16,356Data di fine
30 giu 2026Mercato aperto
Nov 20, 2025, 3:38 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects cautious optimism at roughly 40% implied probability for a Yes resolution by June 30, 2026, driven by late April leaks including datamined assets from Half-Life: Alyx files and unverified insider claims from NateTheHate and Mike Straw linking a potential Half-Life 3 (codenamed HLX) reveal to Valve's rumored Steam Deck successor hardware launch. These fueled brief speculation spikes, but Valve's radio silence—no official announcements in over five years since Alyx—highlights the franchise's dormancy and infamous "Valve Time" unpredictability, tempering bets amid low market liquidity of under $20K volume. Traders eye June catalysts like Summer Game Fest and Xbox Games Showcase for possible trailers, though historical patterns show Valve favors surprise drops over traditional events.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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