The March 31 deadline for a megaquake—defined as a magnitude 8.0 or greater earthquake anywhere worldwide—has passed without any qualifying event recorded in USGS seismic catalogs, driving the market-implied 100% probability for "No." Official monitoring through April 1 shows the largest March 2026 quake at magnitude 6.6 off northern Peru on March 21, far below the threshold, amid a quiet period for great earthquakes that historically occur about once per year on average due to tectonic strain accumulation on major fault systems. Trader consensus reflects this definitive data, backed by real capital; while rare upward revisions to preliminary magnitudes can occur, USGS assessments stabilize quickly, leaving negligible risk of post-deadline changes. Resolution awaits final USGS confirmation, expected imminently.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoMegaquake by March 31?
Megaquake by March 31?
$135,692 Vol.
$135,692 Vol.
31 mar 2026
$135,692 Vol.
$135,692 Vol.
31 mar 2026
A "megaquake" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.The March 31 deadline for a megaquake—defined as a magnitude 8.0 or greater earthquake anywhere worldwide—has passed without any qualifying event recorded in USGS seismic catalogs, driving the market-implied 100% probability for "No." Official monitoring through April 1 shows the largest March 2026 quake at magnitude 6.6 off northern Peru on March 21, far below the threshold, amid a quiet period for great earthquakes that historically occur about once per year on average due to tectonic strain accumulation on major fault systems. Trader consensus reflects this definitive data, backed by real capital; while rare upward revisions to preliminary magnitudes can occur, USGS assessments stabilize quickly, leaving negligible risk of post-deadline changes. Resolution awaits final USGS confirmation, expected imminently.
A "megaquake" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Mercato aperto: Dec 29, 2025, 6:00 PM ET
Volume
$135,692Data di fine
31 mar 2026Mercato aperto
Dec 29, 2025, 6:00 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Esito proposto: No
Nessuna contestazione
Esito finale: No
A "megaquake" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.The March 31 deadline for a megaquake—defined as a magnitude 8.0 or greater earthquake anywhere worldwide—has passed without any qualifying event recorded in USGS seismic catalogs, driving the market-implied 100% probability for "No." Official monitoring through April 1 shows the largest March 2026 quake at magnitude 6.6 off northern Peru on March 21, far below the threshold, amid a quiet period for great earthquakes that historically occur about once per year on average due to tectonic strain accumulation on major fault systems. Trader consensus reflects this definitive data, backed by real capital; while rare upward revisions to preliminary magnitudes can occur, USGS assessments stabilize quickly, leaving negligible risk of post-deadline changes. Resolution awaits final USGS confirmation, expected imminently.
A "megaquake" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Volume
$135,692Data di fine
31 mar 2026Mercato aperto
Dec 29, 2025, 6:00 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Esito proposto: No
Nessuna contestazione
Esito finale: No
The March 31 deadline for a megaquake—defined as a magnitude 8.0 or greater earthquake anywhere worldwide—has passed without any qualifying event recorded in USGS seismic catalogs, driving the market-implied 100% probability for "No." Official monitoring through April 1 shows the largest March 2026 quake at magnitude 6.6 off northern Peru on March 21, far below the threshold, amid a quiet period for great earthquakes that historically occur about once per year on average due to tectonic strain accumulation on major fault systems. Trader consensus reflects this definitive data, backed by real capital; while rare upward revisions to preliminary magnitudes can occur, USGS assessments stabilize quickly, leaving negligible risk of post-deadline changes. Resolution awaits final USGS confirmation, expected imminently.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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