El Niño conditions have emerged in the equatorial Pacific by mid-June 2026 and are forecast to strengthen through the Northern Hemisphere winter, adding a temporary warming boost atop the long-term anthropogenic trend of roughly 0.18–0.20 °C per decade. This dynamic, together with above-average sea-surface temperatures persisting from prior months, underpins trader consensus around the 1.15–1.19 °C bin for the June global mean surface temperature anomaly relative to the 1850–1900 baseline. Recent Copernicus and NOAA analyses show May 2026 as the second-warmest May on record, while seasonal outlooks from WMO and IRI indicate widespread above-normal land and ocean temperatures through June–August. Model spread and the precise timing of El Niño intensification remain key variables that could shift the final monthly value within the narrow leading range.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoJune 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
June 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
1.15–1.19ºC 71%
1.10–1.14ºC 20%
1.20–1.24ºC 9%
1.25–1.29ºC 2.1%
$14,261 Vol.
$14,261 Vol.
30 giu 2026
<1.10ºC
2%
1.10–1.14ºC
20%
1.15–1.19ºC
71%
1.20–1.24ºC
9%
1.25–1.29ºC
2%
>1.29ºC
2%
1.15–1.19ºC 71%
1.10–1.14ºC 20%
1.20–1.24ºC 9%
1.25–1.29ºC 2.1%
$14,261 Vol.
$14,261 Vol.
30 giu 2026
<1.10ºC
$511 Vol.
2%
1.10–1.14ºC
$6,096 Vol.
20%
1.15–1.19ºC
$481 Vol.
71%
1.20–1.24ºC
$3,812 Vol.
9%
1.25–1.29ºC
$1,749 Vol.
2%
>1.29ºC
$1,612 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for June 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for June 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for June 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jun" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for June 2026 is provided by NASA by August 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.El Niño conditions have emerged in the equatorial Pacific by mid-June 2026 and are forecast to strengthen through the Northern Hemisphere winter, adding a temporary warming boost atop the long-term anthropogenic trend of roughly 0.18–0.20 °C per decade. This dynamic, together with above-average sea-surface temperatures persisting from prior months, underpins trader consensus around the 1.15–1.19 °C bin for the June global mean surface temperature anomaly relative to the 1850–1900 baseline. Recent Copernicus and NOAA analyses show May 2026 as the second-warmest May on record, while seasonal outlooks from WMO and IRI indicate widespread above-normal land and ocean temperatures through June–August. Model spread and the precise timing of El Niño intensification remain key variables that could shift the final monthly value within the narrow leading range.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for June 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for June 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for June 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jun" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for June 2026 is provided by NASA by August 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for June 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for June 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jun" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for June 2026 is provided by NASA by August 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Mercato aperto: May 26, 2026, 7:33 PM ET
Volume
$14,261Data di fine
30 giu 2026Mercato aperto
May 26, 2026, 7:33 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for June 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for June 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for June 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jun" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for June 2026 is provided by NASA by August 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.El Niño conditions have emerged in the equatorial Pacific by mid-June 2026 and are forecast to strengthen through the Northern Hemisphere winter, adding a temporary warming boost atop the long-term anthropogenic trend of roughly 0.18–0.20 °C per decade. This dynamic, together with above-average sea-surface temperatures persisting from prior months, underpins trader consensus around the 1.15–1.19 °C bin for the June global mean surface temperature anomaly relative to the 1850–1900 baseline. Recent Copernicus and NOAA analyses show May 2026 as the second-warmest May on record, while seasonal outlooks from WMO and IRI indicate widespread above-normal land and ocean temperatures through June–August. Model spread and the precise timing of El Niño intensification remain key variables that could shift the final monthly value within the narrow leading range.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for June 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for June 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for June 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jun" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for June 2026 is provided by NASA by August 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for June 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for June 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jun" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for June 2026 is provided by NASA by August 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Volume
$14,261Data di fine
30 giu 2026Mercato aperto
May 26, 2026, 7:33 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...El Niño conditions have emerged in the equatorial Pacific by mid-June 2026 and are forecast to strengthen through the Northern Hemisphere winter, adding a temporary warming boost atop the long-term anthropogenic trend of roughly 0.18–0.20 °C per decade. This dynamic, together with above-average sea-surface temperatures persisting from prior months, underpins trader consensus around the 1.15–1.19 °C bin for the June global mean surface temperature anomaly relative to the 1850–1900 baseline. Recent Copernicus and NOAA analyses show May 2026 as the second-warmest May on record, while seasonal outlooks from WMO and IRI indicate widespread above-normal land and ocean temperatures through June–August. Model spread and the precise timing of El Niño intensification remain key variables that could shift the final monthly value within the narrow leading range.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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