El Niño conditions have now developed across the equatorial Pacific, with NOAA issuing an advisory on June 11, 2026, confirming above-average sea surface temperatures and atmospheric coupling that models project will strengthen through 2026–27, potentially ranking among the strongest events on record. This warming, layered atop the long-term anthropogenic trend and the elevated baseline set by 2023–2025 records (third-warmest year in 2025 at roughly 1.17–1.19 °C above mid-20th-century averages), supports trader consensus around the 1.15–1.19 °C anomaly bin for June 2026. Early-stage El Niño effects on global mean surface temperature are typically modest in boreal summer, but subsurface heat content and westerly wind anomalies increase the likelihood of further upward pressure as the event matures. Upcoming monthly ENSO updates and global temperature releases from NOAA and NASA will provide the next key data points for resolution.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoJune 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
June 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
1.15–1.19ºC 64%
1.10–1.14ºC 20%
1.20–1.24ºC 12%
<1.10ºC 4.5%
$12,031 Vol.
$12,031 Vol.
30 giu 2026
<1.10ºC
5%
1.10–1.14ºC
20%
1.15–1.19ºC
64%
1.20–1.24ºC
12%
1.25–1.29ºC
3%
>1.29ºC
2%
1.15–1.19ºC 64%
1.10–1.14ºC 20%
1.20–1.24ºC 12%
<1.10ºC 4.5%
$12,031 Vol.
$12,031 Vol.
30 giu 2026
<1.10ºC
$389 Vol.
5%
1.10–1.14ºC
$5,224 Vol.
20%
1.15–1.19ºC
$191 Vol.
64%
1.20–1.24ºC
$3,311 Vol.
12%
1.25–1.29ºC
$1,615 Vol.
3%
>1.29ºC
$1,301 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for June 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for June 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for June 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jun" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for June 2026 is provided by NASA by August 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.El Niño conditions have now developed across the equatorial Pacific, with NOAA issuing an advisory on June 11, 2026, confirming above-average sea surface temperatures and atmospheric coupling that models project will strengthen through 2026–27, potentially ranking among the strongest events on record. This warming, layered atop the long-term anthropogenic trend and the elevated baseline set by 2023–2025 records (third-warmest year in 2025 at roughly 1.17–1.19 °C above mid-20th-century averages), supports trader consensus around the 1.15–1.19 °C anomaly bin for June 2026. Early-stage El Niño effects on global mean surface temperature are typically modest in boreal summer, but subsurface heat content and westerly wind anomalies increase the likelihood of further upward pressure as the event matures. Upcoming monthly ENSO updates and global temperature releases from NOAA and NASA will provide the next key data points for resolution.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for June 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for June 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for June 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jun" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for June 2026 is provided by NASA by August 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for June 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for June 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jun" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for June 2026 is provided by NASA by August 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Mercato aperto: May 26, 2026, 7:33 PM ET
Volume
$12,031Data di fine
30 giu 2026Mercato aperto
May 26, 2026, 7:33 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for June 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for June 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for June 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jun" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for June 2026 is provided by NASA by August 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.El Niño conditions have now developed across the equatorial Pacific, with NOAA issuing an advisory on June 11, 2026, confirming above-average sea surface temperatures and atmospheric coupling that models project will strengthen through 2026–27, potentially ranking among the strongest events on record. This warming, layered atop the long-term anthropogenic trend and the elevated baseline set by 2023–2025 records (third-warmest year in 2025 at roughly 1.17–1.19 °C above mid-20th-century averages), supports trader consensus around the 1.15–1.19 °C anomaly bin for June 2026. Early-stage El Niño effects on global mean surface temperature are typically modest in boreal summer, but subsurface heat content and westerly wind anomalies increase the likelihood of further upward pressure as the event matures. Upcoming monthly ENSO updates and global temperature releases from NOAA and NASA will provide the next key data points for resolution.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for June 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for June 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for June 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jun" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for June 2026 is provided by NASA by August 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for June 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for June 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jun" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for June 2026 is provided by NASA by August 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Volume
$12,031Data di fine
30 giu 2026Mercato aperto
May 26, 2026, 7:33 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...El Niño conditions have now developed across the equatorial Pacific, with NOAA issuing an advisory on June 11, 2026, confirming above-average sea surface temperatures and atmospheric coupling that models project will strengthen through 2026–27, potentially ranking among the strongest events on record. This warming, layered atop the long-term anthropogenic trend and the elevated baseline set by 2023–2025 records (third-warmest year in 2025 at roughly 1.17–1.19 °C above mid-20th-century averages), supports trader consensus around the 1.15–1.19 °C anomaly bin for June 2026. Early-stage El Niño effects on global mean surface temperature are typically modest in boreal summer, but subsurface heat content and westerly wind anomalies increase the likelihood of further upward pressure as the event matures. Upcoming monthly ENSO updates and global temperature releases from NOAA and NASA will provide the next key data points for resolution.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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