Ongoing tensions in the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for global energy shipments, continue to shape trader assessments. Iranian forces have conducted multiple missile and drone strikes on commercial vessels, including tankers and cargo ships, throughout 2026, with incidents reported as recently as early August targeting vessels linked to various flag states. These actions follow repeated IRGC warnings, declarations of closure, and efforts to control traffic routes amid a U.S. naval blockade and retaliatory strikes on Iranian military sites. Low overall transit volumes persist despite temporary reopenings and diplomatic efforts, reflecting sustained risks from Iranian coastal defenses, mines, and asymmetric tactics. Upcoming factors include potential further U.S. enforcement measures, Iranian responses to blockade pressures, and any escalation tied to unresolved demands over maritime access.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoIran successfully targets shipping by...?
Iran successfully targets shipping by...?
$78,625 Vol.
9 ago 2026
August 9
Yes
16 agosto
Sì
August 31
Yes
September 30
Yes
$78,625 Vol.
August 9
$47,619 Vol.
Yes
16 agosto
$12,205 Vol.
Sì
August 31
$11,341 Vol.
Yes
September 30
$7,459 Vol.
Yes
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or seize control of a commercial ship between market creation, and the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST (UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory or been carried out by Iranian forces will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to Iranian forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST, material ambiguity remains as to the exact timing of the incident, or whether the incident can be attributed to Iran, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, IRST. If, at such time, the attribution or timing of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to "No".Ongoing tensions in the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for global energy shipments, continue to shape trader assessments. Iranian forces have conducted multiple missile and drone strikes on commercial vessels, including tankers and cargo ships, throughout 2026, with incidents reported as recently as early August targeting vessels linked to various flag states. These actions follow repeated IRGC warnings, declarations of closure, and efforts to control traffic routes amid a U.S. naval blockade and retaliatory strikes on Iranian military sites. Low overall transit volumes persist despite temporary reopenings and diplomatic efforts, reflecting sustained risks from Iranian coastal defenses, mines, and asymmetric tactics. Upcoming factors include potential further U.S. enforcement measures, Iranian responses to blockade pressures, and any escalation tied to unresolved demands over maritime access.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or seize control of a commercial ship between market creation, and the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST (UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory or been carried out by Iranian forces will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to Iranian forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST, material ambiguity remains as to the exact timing of the incident, or whether the incident can be attributed to Iran, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, IRST. If, at such time, the attribution or timing of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory or been carried out by Iranian forces will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to Iranian forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST, material ambiguity remains as to the exact timing of the incident, or whether the incident can be attributed to Iran, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, IRST. If, at such time, the attribution or timing of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to "No".
Mercato aperto: Aug 3, 2026, 4:24 PM ET
Volume
$78,625Data di fine
30 set 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 3, 2026, 4:24 PM ETRisolutore
0x65070BE91...Esito proposto: Yes
Nessuna contestazione
Esito finale: Yes
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or seize control of a commercial ship between market creation, and the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST (UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory or been carried out by Iranian forces will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to Iranian forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST, material ambiguity remains as to the exact timing of the incident, or whether the incident can be attributed to Iran, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, IRST. If, at such time, the attribution or timing of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to "No".Ongoing tensions in the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for global energy shipments, continue to shape trader assessments. Iranian forces have conducted multiple missile and drone strikes on commercial vessels, including tankers and cargo ships, throughout 2026, with incidents reported as recently as early August targeting vessels linked to various flag states. These actions follow repeated IRGC warnings, declarations of closure, and efforts to control traffic routes amid a U.S. naval blockade and retaliatory strikes on Iranian military sites. Low overall transit volumes persist despite temporary reopenings and diplomatic efforts, reflecting sustained risks from Iranian coastal defenses, mines, and asymmetric tactics. Upcoming factors include potential further U.S. enforcement measures, Iranian responses to blockade pressures, and any escalation tied to unresolved demands over maritime access.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or seize control of a commercial ship between market creation, and the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST (UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory or been carried out by Iranian forces will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to Iranian forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST, material ambiguity remains as to the exact timing of the incident, or whether the incident can be attributed to Iran, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, IRST. If, at such time, the attribution or timing of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory or been carried out by Iranian forces will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to Iranian forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST, material ambiguity remains as to the exact timing of the incident, or whether the incident can be attributed to Iran, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, IRST. If, at such time, the attribution or timing of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to "No".
Volume
$78,625Data di fine
30 set 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 3, 2026, 4:24 PM ETRisolutore
0x65070BE91...Esito proposto: Yes
Nessuna contestazione
Esito finale: Yes
Ongoing tensions in the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for global energy shipments, continue to shape trader assessments. Iranian forces have conducted multiple missile and drone strikes on commercial vessels, including tankers and cargo ships, throughout 2026, with incidents reported as recently as early August targeting vessels linked to various flag states. These actions follow repeated IRGC warnings, declarations of closure, and efforts to control traffic routes amid a U.S. naval blockade and retaliatory strikes on Iranian military sites. Low overall transit volumes persist despite temporary reopenings and diplomatic efforts, reflecting sustained risks from Iranian coastal defenses, mines, and asymmetric tactics. Upcoming factors include potential further U.S. enforcement measures, Iranian responses to blockade pressures, and any escalation tied to unresolved demands over maritime access.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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