**Strong business investment, particularly AI-related capital expenditures, and resilient consumer spending are supporting U.S. real GDP growth near the 2.3% level projected by the Federal Reserve’s September 2026 Summary of Economic Projections and major forecasters.** Recent data revisions show firmer income and spending trends, while Q3 nowcasts point to annualized growth around 2.9%, keeping the contest between the 2.0–2.5% and >2.5% ranges nearly even at roughly 50% each on Polymarket. Elevated energy prices from geopolitical shocks and the Fed’s ongoing rate hikes to combat inflation above target introduce downside risks that could cap the outcome below 2.5%. Key upcoming catalysts include the Q3 GDP release, October–December FOMC decisions, and year-end consumption and investment figures that will determine whether growth finishes in the lower or upper half of the 2–2.5% band.